Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend/Bias Key Levels (Thurs 19 Apr)

Short-term USD strength has resurfaces in GBP & NZd while the AUD/USD & USD/JPY bulls need to break above 0.7790 & 107.80 respectively. Major stock indices remain firm above key short-term supports with S&P 500 residual push up in progress towards 2740/50 medium-term resistance/risk zone.

FX – Short-term USD strength resurfaces in GBP & NZD

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push up towards “triangle range” resistance. Trade sideways within a range of 55 pips in yesterday, 17 Apr European/U.S. sessions above the 1.2345/2336 (excess) key short-term support. No change, 1.2345/2336 remains the key short-term support to maintain the push up scenario to target the upper boundary/resistance of the “triangle range” at  1.2420/2440 (also a Fibonacci cluster). On the other hand, failure to hold at 1.2345/2336  opens up scope for a deeper slide back towards the intermediate support of 1.2280/2265 (the former minor swing high areas of 05/07 Apr 2018).
  • GBP/USD - Trend bias: Corrective decline within medium-term uptrend in place since 16 Jan 2017 low. Broke below the 1.4280/4260 key short-term support reinforced by a weaker than expected U.K retail sales and inflation data for Mar had invalidated the impulsive upleg scenario. Flip to a bearish bias in any bounce below 1.4280 key short-term resistance (former minor swing  low of 17 Apr 2018 + minor descending trendline from 17 Apr 2018) for a further  potential deeper slide towards the next intermediate supports at 1.4145 (minor swing low of 12 Apr 2018) follow by 1.4090 (minor ascending channel support from 01 Mar 2018 low + former minor range resistance from 03/05 Apr 2018). However, a clearance above 1.4280 turns the tide back to the bulls to open up scope for another round of impulsive upleg to target the 1.4400 resistance (psychological + 1.00 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 05 Apr low to 11 Apr 2018 high projected from 12 Apr 2018 low).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Up. Pushed up and staged another assault of the 0.7790 upside trigger range (minor range top in  place since  17 Apr 2018 that has been tested thrice) before it retreated reinforced by a weaker than expected AU jobs data for Mar (4.9K added employment versus consensus 21K). The pair is still holding above the 0.7740 key short-term support but lack of upside momentum. Maintain bullish bias above 0.7740 key short-term support and a clear break above 0.7790 (an hourly close above it) is required to reinforce a potential push up to target 0.7890 next (medium-term swing high areas of 26 Feb/14 Mar 2018). On the flipside, failure to hold at 0.7740 triggers another round of corrective pull-back towards the 0.7720/0.7700 intermediate support in the first step (the former minor swing high areas of 04/05 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going minor uptrend from 09 Apr 2018 low to yesterday, 11 Apr high of 0.7773).
  • NZD/USD - Trend bias: Corrective decline within sideways range.  Broke below the 0.7330 key short-term support invalidated the push up scenario. Turn bearish in any bounce below 0.7340 key short-term resistance (yesterday, 18 Apr U.S. session high + minor descending channel resistance from 13 Apr 2018 high) for a further potential slide to target the next intermediate support at 0.7275/7260 (minor ascending trendline from 21 Mar 2018 low + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 21 Mar 2018 low to 13 Apr 2018 high). On the other hand, a clearance above 0.7340 revives the bulls for a push up to target the 0 .7430 medium-term range resistance in place since 20 Sep 2017.
  • USD/JPY -Trend bias: Push up within range. Inched higher  from the 106.90 key short-term support as expected. In today, 19 Apr Asian session, it printed a current intraday high of 107.52. No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips above 106.90 key short-term support with 107.80 remains as the upside trigger level (former medium-term swing low area of 08 Sep 2017 that was tested & retreated on last Fri, 13 Apr) and a clear break (an hourly close) above 107.80 reinforces a further potential up move to target the next intermediate resistance at 108.45 (former medium-term swing low area of 26 Jan 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the multi-month decline from 06 Nov 2017 high to 26 Mar 2018 low).  However, failure to hold 106.90 triggers a slide towards 105.85/60 support (minor swing low area of 02/04 Apr 2018 + pull-back support of the former medium-term “Descending Wedge” resistance from 21 Feb 2018 high).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Potential residual push up towards  risk zone of 2740/50 for S&P 500

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Push up towards “Symmetrical Triangle” resistance. Traded sideways and yesterday, 18 Apr early U.S. session pull-backed (printed a low of 2703) managed to hold above the predefined 2700 adjusted key short-term support as per highlighted in yesterday report.  No change, maintain bullish bias above 2700 key short-term support (minor ascending trendline from 13 Apr 2018, U.S. session low to yesterday, 17 Apr U.S. session high of 2713) for a further potential residual push up to target the medium-term resistance/risk zone of 2740/50 (upper boundary of “Symmetrical Triangle” in place since its all-time high of 27 Jan 2018 + Fibonacci cluster) before another round of potential choppy setback materialises. On the other hand, a break below 2700 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the 2680/70 support (the former minor swing high areas of 05/13 Apr 2018 + minor ascending channel support from  04 Apr 2018 low).
  • Japan 225 Trend bias: Pushed up within sideways range. Continued to inch higher as expected and printed a marginal minor higher high in today, 19 Apr Asian session (current intraday high of 22359). No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips with an adjusted key short-term support now at 22100 (yesterday, 18 Apr low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 22510/600 (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel in place since 26 Mar 2018 low + medium-term swing high area of 27 Feb 2018). On the flipside, failure to hold at 22100 sees a deeper pull-back to retest the 21900 support (former minor range resistance from 05 Apr/16 Apr 2018).
  • Hong Kong 50 - Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. Pushed up as expected and hit the minor range resistance/target of 30500/650. Maintain bullish bias in any dips above adjusted key short-term support now at 30350 (minor ascending trendline from 18 Apr 2018 low + former minor swing high area 17 Apr 2018) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 31165 (former minor range support from 14/20 Mar 2018 that was tested & rejected on 12 Apr 2018). However, failure to hold 30350 negates the bullish tone to see another round of slide to retest the key short-term support of 30000/29950 (psychological level +  former swing low areas of 23 Mar/03 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 04 Apr 2018 low to 12 Apr 2018 high).
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Sideways. Almost hit the short-term resistance/target of 5910 (former minor range support from 07/20 Mar 2018). The current push up from 12 Apr 2018 low seems overstretched as the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator is now coming close to an extreme overbought level of 97%. Prefer to turn neutral first between 5910 and 5855 (the former minor swing high areas of 10/11 Apr 2018 + minor ascending trendline support from 04 Apr 2018 low). Only a clear break above 5910 (an hourly close above it) validates a further potential up move to target the next intermediate resistance at 5960 (minor swing high of 21/22 Mar 2018) in the first step.
  • Germany 30Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. Traded within a tight range of 94 points in yesterday, 18 Apr European session as it printed a low of 12546. No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips with key short-term support at 12500 (the pull-back support of the former neckline resistance of a  minor “Double Bottom” configuration from 07 Feb 2018 high) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 12750/865 (former range support from 15 Nov 2017/02 Jan 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from its current all-time high printed on 23 Jan 2018 to 06 Feb 2018 low). On the other hand, a break below 12500 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 12400 (former minor swing high areas of 16 Mar/10 Apr 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 26 Mar 2018 low to 18 Apr high of 12640).

Commodities – Further potential upside for WTI Crude above 68.00 key short-term support

  • WTI Crude (Jun 2018) - Trend bias: Up. Inched higher as expected. Maintain bullish bias in any dips with adjusted key short-term support now at 68.00 (psychological + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 17 Apr low to today, 19 Apr Asian session current intraday high of 68.96 + minor ascending trendline from 17 Apr 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target 69.10 follow by 69.90 in the first step (50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous primary down trend from Aug 2013 high to Feb 2016 low + former major range support from Dec 2009/May 2010). On the other hand, failure to hold at 68.00 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest the next intermediate support of 67.45/25 (former minor swing high areas of 11/13 Apr 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 17 Apr low to today, 19 Apr Asian session current intraday high of 68.96
  • Gold - Trend bias: Sideways. Yesterday, the yellow metal had probed the 1348/53 key short-term resistance again (printed an intraday high of 1355 in the U.S. session before an hourly close back below 1353) before it staged a retreat. Mix elements now which jeopardise the further push down within its medium-term range scenario. Prefer to turn neutral first between 1353 and 1332 (13 Apr 2018 minor swing low). A clear break above 1353 (an hourly close above it) sees a further push up to retest the 1365/78 major range resistance in place since Jul 2016.

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform


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