Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 12 Apr)

EUR & GBP at risk of undergoing a minor setback against the USD while major stock indices are still holding above key short-term supports.

FX – EUR & GBP strength against the USD are coming close to resistances

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Residual push up towards  “triangle range” resistance. Continued to push higher to print another minor “higher high” of 1.2395 in  yesterday, 11 Apr European session. Cautious now on the on-going minor short-term uptrend in place since 06 Apr 2018 as it has started to lose upside momentum (bearish divergence signal seen in the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator at its overbought region). Tightened key short-term support to 1.2350 (yesterday, 11 Apr U.S. session low + close to the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 06 Apr 2018 low + close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going minor uptrend from 06 Apr 2018 low) for a potential residual push up  to target the upper boundary/resistance of the “triangle range” at  1.2420/2440 (also a Fibonacci cluster) before risk of consolidation sets in. However, a break below 1.2350 sees a deeper pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 1.2290/2275 (the former minor swing high areas of 05/07 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 06 Apr low to 10 Apr 2018 high).
  • GBP/USD -Trend bias: Residual push up towards range resistance. Inched higher to print a high of 1.4223 in yesterday, 11 Apr European session. Cautious now as it is coming close to the medium-term range resistance in place since 25 Jan 2018. Tightened key short-term support to 1.4160 (yesterday, 11 Apr U.S. session low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going minor uptrend from 05 Apr 2018 low to yesterday, 11 Apr high of 1.4223) for a further potential push up to target the 1.4240/4280 range resistance (25 Jan/26 Mar 2018 medium-term swing high areas) before risk of a consolidation sets in. However, failure to hold at 1.4160 sees a deeper pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 1.4090 (the former range resistance from 29 Mar to 05 Apr 2018).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Unclear. Remain neutral now between 0.7780 & 0.7740 (yesterday, 11 Apr U.S. session low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going minor uptrend from 09 Apr 2018 low to yesterday, 11 Apr high of 0.7773). Only a clear break above 0.7780 (an hourly close above it) reinstates the bullish tone for a further push up to target 0.7890 next (medium-term swing high areas of 26 Feb/14 Mar 2018). On the flipside, failure to hold at 0.7740 triggers another round of corrective pull-back towards the 0.7720/0.7700 intermediate support in the first step (the former minor swing high areas of 04/05 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going minor uptrend from 09 Apr 2018 low to yesterday, 11 Apr high of 0.7773).
  • NZD/USD – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range in progress. Maintain bullish bias with adjusted short-term support  at 0.7340 (former medium swing high areas of 26 Feb/14 Mar + minor ascending trendline from 06 Apr 2018) for a further potential push up to target  the 0.7430 medium-term range resistance in place since 20 Sep 2017. However, failure to hold at 0.7340 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 0.7320/7300 (the former minor swing high areas of 27 Mar/05 Apr 2018).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Unclear. Managed to hold above the 106.60 key short-term support after U.S. President Trump’s tweet on using “smart missiles” to target Syria coupled with a spat with Russian authorities for backing the Syrian government. On the upside, the pair has been capped by a minor range resistance at 107.30 in place since 05 Apr 2018 high. Prefer to turn neutral now between 107.30 and 106.60. A break above 107.30 reinstates the bullish tone for a push up to target next intermediate resistance at 107.80 (former medium-term swing low of 08 Sep 2017) in the first step.  On the flipside, failure to hold 106.60 invalidates the short-term/minor uptrend in place since 26 Mar 2018 low for another round of choppy decline to retest the next intermediate support at 105.80/65 (minor swing low of 02 Apr 2018 seen in the U.S session + pull-back support of the former medium-term “Descending Wedge” resistance from 21 Feb 2018 high).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Still holding above key short-term supports

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Push up within “triangle” range.  No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips with 2610  as the key short-term support (minor ascending trendline support from  03 Apr 2018 low + close to the  61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the push up from last Fri, 06 Apr U.S session low of 2585 to yesterday, 10 Apr high of 2665)for a further potential push up to test the intermediate resistance of 2680/90 (minor swing high area of 27 Mar 2018 + former minor swing low areas of 07/20 Mar 2018).  However, failure to hold at 2610 shall see another round of slide to retest the 2585 key medium-term support.
  • Japan 225 Trend bias: Pushed up within sideways range. Managed to hold the 21530 key short-term support in yesterday, 11 Apr European session (printed a low of 21564).  Maintain bullish bias above the 21530 key short-term support (10 Apr 2018 Asian session low + minor ascending trendline from 24 Mar 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 22100 (minor swing high area of 13 Mar 2018). However, a break below 21530  negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest the 21300 (the pull-back support of the former “Descending Wedge” resistance).
  • Hong Kong 50 - Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. Opened higher in today, 12 Apr Asian session (printed a current intraday high of  31165 before it pull-backed to erase off its initial gains. Maintain bullish bias in any dips above 30400 key short-term support (former minor swing high area of 09 Apr 2018) for  a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 31460 (1.00 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 04 Apr 2018 low to 09 Apr low projected from 09 Apr U.S. session low). On the other hand, a break below 30400 negates the bullish tone for a corrective pull-back to retest 30000/29950 (psychological level +  former swing low areas of 23 Mar/03 Apr 2018).
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. No change, maintain bullish bias above 5780 adjusted key short-term support (09 Apr low + minor ascending trendline from 04 Apr 2018 low) for a further potential push up to retest the previous minor range resistance of 5855 (minor swing high areas of 10/11 Apr/27 Mar 2018) before targeting  the next intermediate resistance at 5910 (former minor range support from 07/20 Mar 2018). However, a break below 5780 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 5750/46 (last Fri, 06 Apr U.S. session swing low area).  
  • Germany 30Trend bias: Push up within sideways range, No change, maintain bullish bias with key short-term support at 12200 (09 Apr U.S. session low) for a retest on its minor range resistance of 12415 in place since 10 Apr before a further potential push up to target the next 12500/600 intermediate range resistance in place since 07 Apr 2018 high. On the other hand, a break below 12200 (an hourly close below it) negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the 12180/150 support (minor swing low area of 06 Apr + pull-back support of former minor descending resistance from 27 Feb 2018 high).

Commodities – Bullish breakout in WTI

  • WTI Crude (May 2018) – Trend bias: Up. Clearance above the 66.40/66.66 medium-term range resistance has validated a bullish scenario. Flip back to a bullish bias above 66.10 key short-term support (the former range resistance in place since 25 Jan 2018 high) for a further potential up move to target the intermediate resistance of 69.10/90 in the first step (50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous primary down trend from Aug 2013 high to Feb 2016 low + former major range support from Dec 2009/May 2010), However, a break below 66.10 is considered as a failure bullish breakout to see another round of choppy decline towards the intermediate support of 63.90/80 (former minor swing high areas of 04/05 Apr 2018) within the multi-month range configuration since 25 Jan 2018.
  • Gold - Trend bias: Unclear. Broke above 1345/48 and squeeze up to test the 1365/78 major range resistance in place since Jul 2016 (printed a high of 1365 before it reversed down). Prefer to turn neutral first between 1365/78 & 1337 (minor ascending trendline from 06 Apr 2018 low). Failure to hold 1337 is likely to see another round of choppy decline to retest 1319 (06 Apr 2018 minor swing low) and even the 1310/1305 range support in place since 08 Feb 2018 low. On the other hand, a clearance above 1378 triggers a bullish breakout from its major range configuration for a further potential up move to target the next intermediate resistance of 1400/1417 (former medium-term swing high areas of 06 Jun/27 Aug 2013.

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform


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