Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 08 Feb)

FX – Mix bag 

  • EUR/USD – Broke below the 1.2320 minor range support (lower limit of the neutrality zone) that validated another potential downleg of this ongoing minor corrective decline phase in place since 25 Jan 2018. Flip back to bearish bias in any bounce below key short-term resistance at 1.2335 (former minor range support of 30 Jan 2018 low + minor descending trendline from 02 Feb 2018 high) for a potential residual push down to target the next support at 1.2200/2180 (swing low area of 18 Jan 2018 + ascending trendline from 18 Dec 2017 low + Fibonacci cluster).  However, a break above 1.2335 should invalidate the residual downleg scenario for a recovery back to retest the 1.2520 range resistance in the first step.
  • GBP/USD – Still managed to hold above 1.3830/3800 key short-term support. No change, maintain bullish bias above 1.3830/3800 support with 1.4000 as upside trigger level (former minor swing low area of 30 Jan 2018) to reinforce a potential recovery to target the 1.4270/4310 range resistance in  place since 25 Jan 2018 in the first step. On the flipside, failure to hold above 1.3800 should invalidate the recovery scenario for an extension of the minor corrective decline towards the 1.3620/3590 key medium-term support.
  • AUD/USD – Dropped below the 0.7835 minor support which invalidated the direct rise/recovery scenario. Yesterday (07 Feb) U.S. session decline has led the pair to hover just above the 0.7800 key medium-term support (Fibonacci cluster + swing low area of 09/10 Jan 2018 + former major swing high area of 20 Apr 2016) coupled with a bullish divergence signal seen in the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator. Therefore, a potential snap-back rebound/recovery can still materialise. Maintain bullish bias above 0.7800 key medium-term support with 0.7875 as the upside trigger level (minor descending trendline from 31 Jan 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 27 Jan 2018 high to today Asian session current intraday low of 0.7811) for a potential rebound to retest 0.7950 resistance (minor swing high area of 05 Feb 2018 + close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 27 Jan 2018 high to today Asian current intraday low). However, failure to hold above 0.7800 should invalidate the snap-back rebound scenario for an extension of the decline to target the next support at 0.7750/30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 08 Dec 2017 low to 26 Jan 2018 high + former range resistance of 22 Feb/20 Mar 2017).
  • NZD/USD – Broke below the 0.7260 lower neutrality zone and declined towards the support/target of 0.7200/7190 (former medium-term swing of 13 Oct 2017 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 08 Dec 2017 to 24 Jan 2018) coupled with a bullish divergence seen in the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator at its oversold region. Turn bullish above 0.7190 support for a potential snap-back rebound to retest 0.7260/80 (former range support from 20 Jan/06 Feb 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the ongoing decline from 31 Jan 2018 high to today Asian session current intraday low).  However, a break below 0.7190 should invalidate the snap-back rebound scenario for an extension of the drop to target the next support at 0.7060/50 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 17 Nov 2017 low to 24 Jan 2018 high.
  • USD/JPY – Still stuck in a range above the 108.30 medium-term support.  No change, maintain neutrality stance between 108.30 & 109.75 (former minor pull-back support from 26 Jan/01 Feb 2018) A break above 109.75 may reinstate the bulls for a potential up move towards 110.80/111.00 in the first step.

Stock Indices (CFD) – Still holding above supports

  • US SP 500 – Pushed up and pull-backed from the predefined 2713/35 minor risk zone as expected (refer to yesterday report) in yesterday, 07 Feb mid U.S. session.  The pull-backed has retraced almost 38.2% of the up move the 06 Feb 2018 low of 2531 but the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator still has room for further potential downside before it reaches an extreme oversold level. This observation suggest that the pull-back may still has room to test the 2630/2607 zone (50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 06 Feb 2018 low to yesterday’s U.S session high of  2728). Maintain bullish bias in any dips above yesterday’s highlighted  2574 key short-term support  for another potential upleg to target the next resistance at 2740/60 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 29 Jan 2018 high to yesterday low,  05 Jan U.S. session former swing low area & the minor descending trendline from 296 Jan 2018 high) in the first step. On the flipside, failure to hold above 2574 should negate the bullish tone for a further setback to retest the 2540/30 major support.
  • Japan 225 – Whipsawed around the 21840 short-term support. Maintain bullish bias above adjusted short-term support now at 21070 (06 Feb 2018 low) for another potential upleg to retest 22360 (minor swing high of 07 Feb 2018) before targeting the next near-term resistance at 22800/925 (upper boundary of the short-term ascending channel from 06 Feb 2018 low + pull-back resistance of the former range support from  15 Nov 2017 low). On the other hand, failure to hold above 21070 should see an extension of the drop to test the significant long-term support at 20800/20600 (the former major swing high areas of Jun 2015/Mar 2000 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 24 Jun 2016 to 23 Jan 2018 high + major ascending channel support from 24 Jun 2016 low).
  • Hong Kong 50 – Failed to hold the 30940/800 short-term support and it tumbled straight towards the 30140 medium-term support (former medium-term swing high area of 21 Nov 2017 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 06 Dec 2017 low to 26 Jan 2018 high) with a key major support coming in at 29900 (major ascending channel support from 28 Dec 2016 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 11 Feb 2016 low to 29 Jan 2018 high). Mix elements now, prefer to turn neutral first between 29900 & 30880 (yesterday, 07 Feb U.S. session high).  A break above 30880 may see at least a snap-back rebound to retest the 31650/32000 gap resistance formed on 06 Feb 2018.
  • Australia 200 – Traded sideways above 5800/780 major support. No change, watch the 5910 minor range top formed since 06 Feb 2018 and a break above it is likely to trigger a potential recovery  in first step to retest 5986 (former swing low areas of 17/30 Jan 2018).
  • Germany 30 –  No change, maintain bullish bias  in any dips above 12100/12070 key short-term support (06 Feb Asian opening level + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from yesterday low of 11695) for a further potential push up to retest 12845 (former range support from 15 Nov 2017) & above it opens up scope for a further potential up move to target the next resistance at 13150 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 23 Jan 2018 high to 06 Feb 2018 low + minor descending trendline from 23 Jan 2018 high).  However, a break below 12070 should negate the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest the 11800/700 major support.

 Commodities – Gold watch the 1305 support

  • Gold – Declined as expected and came close to the short-term support/downside target zone of 1310/1305 (printed a low of 1311 in yesterday, 07 Feb U.S. session). Mix elements, prefer to turn neutral now between 1305 & 1322 (former minor swing low of 07 Feb 2018). A break below 1305 is likely to open up scope for an extension of the drop to target the next support at 1290/85 (Fibonacci cluster).
  • WTI Crude (Mar 2018) – Declined as expected right below the 64.50 predefined key short-term resistance and hit the 62.25/61.60 support zone (former medium-term swing high area of May/Jun 2015). Mix elements now, prefer to turn neutral first between 60.90 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 21 Jun 2017 low to 25 Jan 2018 high + ascending trendline from 31 Aug 2017 low + former medium-term swing high area of May/Jun 2015) & 63.00 (former minor range support since 12 Jan 2018).  A break below 60.90 is likely to trigger an extension of the drop towards the next near-term support at 58.90/58.50 (former swing high areas of 24 Nov/01 Dec 2017 + 2.618 Fibonacci projection of the recent decline from 25 Jan 2018 high.

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform



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