Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 05 Apr)

USD strength capped by resistances except against JPY. U.S S&P 500 bullish reversal above 2585 key medium-term support with WTI Crude potential recovery within range configuration.

FX – USD strength capped by resistances except against the JPY

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Unclear. The pair whipsawed around the adjusted key short-term resistance at 1.2290  (former minor swing low areas of29 Mar/02 Apr 2018 + minor descending trendline from 28 Mar 2018 high). No conviction now for the last push down scenario towards the lower boundary/support of the “triangle range” at  1.2230 (refer to yesterday report). Prefer to turn neutral now between 1.2315 (yesterday, 04 April minor swing high area) & 1.2270 (minor ascending support from 03 Apr 2018 low). On a break below 1.2270 (an hourly close below it) is likely to revive the short-term bearish tone for a slide to target the “triangle range” support of 1.2230. On the flipside, a clearance above 1.2315 (an hourly close above it) opens up scope for a retest  on 1.2420/2440 (the upper boundary/resistance of the “triangle range” in place since 16 Feb 2018 high).
  • GBP/USD - Trend bias: Up.  The pair continues to hold above the 1.4000 key short-term support (minor ascending channel support from 01 Mar 2018 low + Fibonacci cluster). It printed a low of 1.4015 in yesterday, 04 Apr European session before it rebounded and formed a daily bullish “Hammer” candlestick pattern at the end of the U.S session. No change, maintain bullish bias with 1.4090 upside trigger level (an hourly close above it)  to reinforce a potential up move to retest 1.4200/4240 (26 Mar 2018 minor swing high) in the first step. However, failure to hold above 1.4000 negates recovery for a deeper slide towards the next intermediate support at 1.3920 (former congestion zone of 06/16 Mar 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 01 Mar low to 26 Mar 2018 high).
  • AUD/USD - Push up within descending range in progress. Managed to hold the 0.7667 adjusted key short-term support after a challenge in yesterday, 04 Apr European session after the announcement of China’s planned tariffs on U.S. products). It printed an intraday low of 0.7663 but no hourly close below it. No change, key short-term support remains at 0.7667 for a potential push up to retest 0.7755/7780 (22 Mar 2018 minor swing high) in the first step & a break above 0.7780 is likely to open up scope for a further up move to target 0.7810/7840 next (medium-term descending resistance from 27 Jan 2018 high + Fibonacci retracement cluster). On the flipside, a break below 0.7667 (an hourly close below it) invalidates the push up scenario for a further slide towards the lower boundary of a major “Ascending Wedge” range configuration in place since Jan 2016 low now acting as a support at 0.7600.
  • NZD/USD - Trend bias: Push up within sideways range in progress. Managed to hold the 0.7250 key short-term support (the former minor range resistance that was retested in 03 Apr U.S. session after its prior bullish breakout) as it printed an intraday low of 0.7273 in yesterday, 04 Apr European session before it reversed up. Adjusted key short-term support to 0.7270 (also the former minor swing high of 03 Apr 2018) for a for a further potential push up to 0.7345 intermediate resistance (minor swing high areas of 26 Feb/14 Mar 2018) in the first step. A clearance above 0.7345 opens up scope for a retest on the 0.7485/7500 major range resistance in place since Sep 2016 high. On the flipside, a reintegration below 0.7250 represents a failure bullish breakout for a slide back to retest the 0.7190 range support in place since 08 Feb 2018).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Up.  The pair pull-backed after the announcement of China’s planned tariffs on U.S. products but managed to hold right at the predefined 106.10 key short-term support (see yesterday’s report as it printed intraday low of 106.00 without an hourly close below 106.10) before it reversed up to test the previous minor swing high of 107.00 seen on 29 Mar 2018.  Maintain bullish bias with adjusted key short-term support now at 106.65/50 (former minor swing high area of 04 Apr 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of yesterday, 04 Apr rally from 106.00 low to today, 05 Apr Asian session current intraday high of 106.99) for a push up to test 107.15/20 (minor swing high of 13 Mar 2018 + 0.618 Fibonacci projection of the recent minor rally from 26 Mar low to 29 Mar 2018 high projected from 03 Apr 2018 low). A clearance above 107.20 opens up scope a further potential up move to target the next resistance at 107.80 (former medium-term swing low of 08 Sep 2017 + minor ascending channel resistance in place since 26 Mar 2018).  However, a break below 106.50 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest yesterday, 04 Apr swing low area of 106.10/106.00 (also the minor ascending channel support in place since 26 Mar 2018).

Stock Indices (CFD) –  S&P 500 staged a bullish reversal above 2585 key medium-term support after another challenge on it

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Push up within “Triangle range” in progress.  The Index breached below the 2585 key medium-term support (pull-back support of the former long-term ascending channel resistance from Mar 2009 + ascending channel support from 11 Feb 2016 low+ Fibonacci cluster) in yesterday, 04 Apr European session after the announcement of China’s planned tariffs on U.S. products. It printed the an intraday low of 2560 (did not break below the previous swing low of 2552 seen on 02 Apr)before it reversed back up above 2585 after the first hour of yesterday, 04 Apr U.S. session. The key high beta/momentum driven/technology related NYSE FANG+ Index (FANGs stocks plus Alibaba, Baidu, NVIDIA, Tesla & Twitter) had also tested and reversed from its key 2334/2300 support and ended with a daily bullish “Engulfing” candlestick pattern (refer to previous Chart Of The Day report, link here). Thus, yesterday’s breach below 2585 in the European session is considered as a “noise”. Maintain bullish bias now in any dips with a key short-term support now at 2610 (former minor swing high area of 04 Apr 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recovery seen from yesterday low of 2560 to today, 05 Apr Asian session current intraday high of 2659) for a further potential push up to the next intermediate resistance at 2690 (former minor swing low areas of 07/20 Mar 2018) & a clearance above 2690 is likely to open scope for a further upmove towards 2740/50 (upper boundary of the “triangle range” in place since 29 Jan 2018 high + Fibonacci cluster). On the other hand, a break below 2610 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest the 2585 key medium-term support).
  • Japan 225 Trend bias: Up. Broke above the 21600 (upper boundary of the “Descending Wedge” range configuration in place since 27 Feb 2018 high). Key short-term support now at 21300 (pull-back support of the former “Descending Wedge” resistance + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current up move from yesterday, 04 Apr European session low of 21035 to today, 05 Apr current intraday high of 21715) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 22100 (minor swing high area of 13 Mar 2018) in the first step. However, failure to hold at 21300 negates the bullish tone for another round of choppy slide to retest 21000/20900 minor range support in place since 02 Apr 2018 low).
  • Hong Kong 50 - Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. The Index has managed to recover in yesterday, 04 Apr U.S. session to close above the lower limit of the 29800 key medium-term support (ascending trendline from 28 Dec 2016 low + 05 Mar 2018 swing low) after it printed a low of 29164 in the Asian session. The 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has traced out a bullish divergence signal at its oversold region with indicates the recent downside momentum has started to abate. Key short-term support now at 29160/29070 with 30120 as upside trigger (minor descending trendline from 21 Mar 2018 high) and an hourly close above 30120 is likely to open up scope for a potential push up to retest the next intermediate resistance at 31140 in(the former minor range support of 14/30 Mar 2018.  A break below 29070 is likely to trigger the start of a medium-term corrective down move to target the next support at 28600/100 (congestion zone of 30 Aug/07 Dec 2017 in the first step.
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. Cleared above the 5770 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone that validated a push up scenario. Key short-term support now at 5755 (former minor range top of 03/04 Apr) for a potential push up to test the 5850/80 intermediate resistance next (former minor swing low of 05 Mar 2018). On the flipside, a break below 5755 shall see another slide to retest 5705/700 area.
  • Germany 30Trend bias: Unclear. Maintain neutrality stance between 11900/800 (key medium-term support) & 12130 (minor swing high area of 29 Mar 2018). Only a break above 12130 (an hourly close above it during today, European session) is likely to trigger a push up to test 12500 (intermediate range resistance from  07 Feb 2018 high).

Commodities – Potential recovery within sideways range for WTI Crude

  • Gold - Trend bias: Push down within sideways range. Challenged the 1345 key short-term resistance as it printed an intraday high of 1348 before it reversed down in yesterday, 04 Apr U.S. session. Tolerate the excess and maintain the bearish bias below 1345/48 for a further potential push down to  retest 1310/1305 range support in place since 08 Feb 2018 low. On the other hand, a break above 1348 shall see a squeeze up to test the 1365/78 major range resistance since Jul 2016.
  • WTI Crude (May 2018) – Trend bias: Push up within range configuration. Pushed down as expected and hit the 62.20/62.00 support/target (medium-term ascending channel support from 09 Feb 2018 low + former minor range resistance of 12/17 Mar 2018). It printed an intraday low of 62.07 in yesterday, 04 Apr U.S. session before it reversed up and formed a daily bullish “Hammer” candlestick pattern. Key short-term support now at 62.07 for a potential push back up to retest 65.40 (minor swing high area of 02 Apr 2018) before targeting 66.40/66.66 (medium-term range resistance in place since Jan 2018).  On the flipside, failure to hold at 62.07 shall invalidate the push up scenario for a further slide towards the next intermediate support at 60.18/10 (01/08 Mar swing low areas).

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform




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