Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 01 Feb)

FX – USD managed to hold above supports post FOMC

  • EUR/USD – Staged another challenge at the 1.2430 upper limit short-term neutrality zone (printed a high of 1.2475) before it retreated post FOMC below 1.2430. Yesterday’s initial push up stalled right below the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the previous slide from 25 Jan high to 30 Jan 2018 low coupled with a daily bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern (a sign of reversal of the prior positive sentiment). No change, still range bound, maintain neutrality stance between 1.2430/54 & 1.2320. Failure to hold 1.2320 is likely to trigger the start of a minor corrective decline towards 1.2225 in the first step (minor swing low areas of 20/23 Jan 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 12 Dec 2017 low to 25 Jan 2018 high).
  • GBP/USD –  Breached above & whipsawed around the 1.4160 key short-term resistance but elements are not convincing at this juncture to advocate the start of a new potential impulsive upleg. Yesterday’s upside momentum of price action has started to abate as indicated by the bearish divergence signal seen in the hourly Stochastic oscillator at its overbought region. Maintain bearish bias and tolerate the excess of the key short-term resistance to 1.4260 (minor swing high area of 26 Jan 2018 + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the previous slide from 25 Jan high to 30 Jan 2018 low) with 1.4000 as the downside trigger level to increase the conviction for a potential minor corrective decline to target the next near-term support at 1.3930 in the first step (the former minor swing high areas of 18/19 Jan 2018). Below 1.3930 exposes  1.3830/3800 support next (50% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 18 Dec 2017 to 25 Jan 2018 high + major swing low areas of Jan 2009 + Jun 2001 that has been reintegrated above on 17 Jan 2018).  On the flipside, a break above 1.4260 should reinstate the bullish tone for another round of potential upleg to retest the recent high of 1.4345 before targeting 1.4500/4570 (Fibonacci cluster +  major congestion zone of Feb/May 2016 before Brexit vote).
  • AUD/USD – Retested and reacted right at the the 0.8130 key short-term resistance as expected (printed a high of 0.8116 in yesterday, 31 Jan European session before it retreated). No change, maintain bearish bias below 0.8130 resistance for a further potential push down to target the  0.8000/7985 support (minor swing low of 26 Jan 2018 + lower boundary of the ascending channel from 11 Dec 2017 low). Below 0.7985 is likely to open up scope for a deeper minor corrective decline towards the 0.7890/7880 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 08 Dec 2017 low to 25 Jan 2018 high)  However, a clearance above 0.8130 should reinstate the bullish tone for a potential upleg to target the 0.8170 major resistance.
  • NZD/USD – Broke above the 0.7380 short-term resistance (printed a high of 0.7420 in yesterday, 31 Jan European session before it retreated and traded below 0.7380 in the U.S. session. Tolerate the excess of the key short-term resistance to 0.7420 with 0.7270 as downside trigger level for a potential push down to target the next near-term support at  0.7200/0.7190 (former medium-term swing of 13 Oct 2017 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 08 Dec 2017 to 24 Jan 2018). However, a clearance above 0.7420 should reinstate the bullish tone for a potential upleg to retest the recent high of 0.7438 before targeting the major resistance of 0.7485/7520 (swing high areas of 27 Jul 2017/06 Sep 2016).
  • USD/JPY – Started to trace out a minor “Bottoming” formation in place since 108.28 low of 26 Jan 2018 coupled with a daily bullish candlestick that closed above the closing level of a prior “Doji-liked” candlestick seen on 30 Jan 2018. Flip to a bullish bias from yesterday neutral stance above 108.30 key short-term support with 109.80 as upside trigger level (the minor descending trendline from 08 Jan 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 12 Dec 2017 high to 26 Jan 2018 low) to reinforce a potential corrective rebound towards 110.30/45 (descending trendline from 08 Jan 2018 high + former swing low area of 17 Jan 2018). On the other hand, failure to hold above 108.30 should trigger an extension of the decline towards the next support at 107.40/30 (medium-term swing low of 08 Sep 2017 + 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the down move from 06 Nov to 27 Nov 2017 projected from 12 Dec 2017). 

Stock Indices (CFD) – Still below resistances for further potential downside

  • US SP 500 – Printed a new minor low of 2812 in yesterday, 31 Jan U.S. session post FOMC.  Maintain bearish bias with a tightened key short-term at 2845 (minor high area of 30 Jan 2018 + Fibonacci cluster) for another potential dowleg) to target the next support at 2805. On the other hand, a break above 2845 should invalidate the bearish scenario for a squeeze up to test 2880 key medium-term resistance (see latest weekly technical outlook).
  • Japan 225 – Shaped the expected minor rebound from yesterday low of 23089. No change, maintain bearish bias below 23530 key short-term resistance for a further potential push down to target the next support at 22970. On the flipside, a break above 23510 should negate the bearish tone for a push up to retest the recent minor range top of 23800.
  • Hong Kong 50 – Tested the 32950 key short-term resistance in yesterday, 31 Jan European session (printed a high of 33021) before it retreated back below 32950 at the start of yesterday U.S. session. Interestingly, yesterday European session high of 33021 was rejected right below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement if the decline from 29 Jan 2018 high to 31 Jan 2018 low at 33070. Thus, tolerate the excess of the key short-term resistance to 33070 and maintain the bearish bias for another potential downleg to retest 32300 before targeting the next near-term support at 32150/32000 (minor swing low area of 22 Jan 2018 + close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 07 Dec 2017 low to 29 Jan 2018 high).  However, a clearance above 33070 should invalidate the corrective decline scenario for a squeeze up towards to retest 33430/530.
  • Australia 200 – Staged the minor rebound as expected and now it is coming close to the 6100/6109 range top in place since 15 Jan 2018.  The hourly Stochastic is now back at its overbought region. Turn bearish below the 6109 range top for a potential push down towards the range bottom/support of 6000/5986.
  • Germany 30 – Inched lower to print a new minor low of 13158. Maintain bearish bias below a tightened key short-term resistance now at 13300 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 29 Jan high to yesterday low) for a further  potential push down to target 13130 (lower limit of the medium-term neutrality zone). A break below 13130 is likely to open up scope for a further corrective decline towards the next support at 13035 in the first step (1.00 Fibonacci projection from 23 Jan high to 25 Jan 2018 low projected from 29 Jan 2018 high + lower boundary of a minor descending channel from 23 Jan 2018 high). However, a clearance above 13300 should negate the bearish tone to see a choppy move to retest 13450 (upper limit of the medium-term neutrality zon
Commodities – Gold & WTI remain soft
  • Gold – Printed a new minor low of 1332 post FOMC before it rebounded to test the 1347/49 key short-term resistance and retreated from it. No change, maintain bearish bias below 1347/49 for a further potential push down to target the near-term support of 1327/1325 in the first step (minor swing low area of 18 Jan 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 12 Dec 2017 low to 25 Jan 2018 high) with a medium-term uptrend in place since 12 Dec  2017 low. On the other hand, a clearance above 1347 should invalidate the minor corrective decline scenario for a recovery to retest the recent high of 1366.
  • WTI Crude (Mar 2018) –Staged the minor rebound as expected towards the key short-term resistance of 65.15. No change, maintain bearish bias below 65.15 for another round of potential downleg to target the next near-term supports at 63.00 follow by 62.25 next (former minor swing high areas of 04/09 Jan 2018). However, a break above 65.15 should invalidate the minor downleg scenario for a squeeze back up to retest the 66.44 recent swing high.

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform



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