Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Mon 29 Jan)

FX – Potential residual push down towards USD major supports

  • EUR/USD – No change, maintain bullish bias above 1.2340/2320 key short-term support for a potential residual push up to target the upper limit of the major resistance at 1.2560 (Fibonacci cluster + exit potential of the “Double Bottom” bullish breakout configuration formed in Mar 2015 to July 2017) holding above the 1.2340/2320 support.  On the other hand, failure to hold above 1.2320 should trigger a minor corrective decline towards the 1.2215/2160 support zone (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of  the up move from 13 Dec 2017 low to yesterday high + 18 Jan 2018 swing low).
  • GBP/USD - No change, maintain bullish bias for potential residual push up  above 1.4100/4080 key short-term support to target the next resistance at 1.4500/4570 (Fibonacci cluster +  major congestion zone of Feb/May 2016 before Brexit vote). However, a break below 1.4100/4080 should negate the bullish tone to see a minor corrective decline towards the next support at 1.4000/3930 (the former minor swing high areas of 18/19 Jan 2018).
  • AUD/USD – Rallied as expected and hit the lower limit of the major resistance/target zone of 0.8130 (printed a high of 0.8136 on last Fri, 26 Jan U.S. session. Based on Elliot Wave/fractal analysis, the pair may stage another push up to complete the minor degree bullish impulsive upleg from 26 Jan 2018 low. Maintain bullish bias in any dips with a tight key short-term support at 0.8070 (minor swing area of 26 Jan 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going upleg from 26 Jan 2018 to last Fri high) for a potential residual push up to target the upper limit of the major resistance zone at 0.8170 (Fibonacci cluster + swing high of 08 Sep 2017 + major pull-back resistance of a former ascending trendline from Apr 2001 low). On the flipside, failure to hold above 0.8070 should negate the bullish tone to kick-start  a minor corrective slide towards the  next support at 0.8000/7960 in the first step.
  • NZD/USD -  Mix elements, remain neutral between 0.7270 & 7390.  Only clearance above 0.7390 is likely to revive the bullish tone for another potential upleg to target the 0.7530 major resistance.
  • USD/JPY – Pushed down as expected and hit the upper limit of the major support zone of 108.40/108.00 (printed a low of 108.28 on last Fri, 26 Jan U.S. session). Interestingly, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has started to flash a bullish divergence signal at its oversold region which suggests a slow-down in downside momentum of price actions. Time to be cautious for the bears, prefer to turn neutral first between 108.00 & 109.60 (minor swing high of 26 Jan 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 12 Dec 2017 high to last Fri low). A clearance above 109.60 is likely to kick-start of potential corrective rebound towards 110.30/45 (descending trendline from 08 Jan 2018 high + former swing low area of 17 Jan 2018).
Stock Indices (CFD) -  S&P 500 is coming close to key medium-term resistance
  • US SP 500 – Rallied as expected and surpassed the resistance/target of 2860 (print another new all-time level of 2874 on last Fri, 26 Jan U.S session) Right now, it is coming close to the upper limit of its key medium-term resistance at 2880 (see weekly technical outlook). Daily Bollinger Band & RSI oscillators are showing extreme overbought readings coupled with Elliot Wave/fractal analysis that suggests the intermediate degree bullish impulsive wave (3) may end soon where a multi-week corrective decline/consolidation may occur next. Thus, prefer to be prudent and turn neutral now between 2880 & 2851 (former minor swing high areas of 24/25 Jan 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going rally from 17 Jan 2018 minor swing low).
  •  Japan 225 – No change, maintain bearish bias below  23800/830 key short-term resistance (minor descending trendline from 23 Jan 2018 high + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 23 Jan 2018 high to yesterday, 25 Jan U.S. session) for a further potential push down to target the 23400/23325 key medium-term support (see weekly technical outlook).
  • Hong Kong 50 – Pushed up as expected and hit the 33330 resistance/target as expected. Mix elements now, prefer to turn neutral between 33420 (upper limit of key medium-term resistance – see weekly technical outlook) & 33000 (former minor swing high area of 25 Jan 2018 that has been tested and held as a support on 26 Jan 2018).
  •  Australia 200 – No change, maintain bullish bias for a potential push up to test 6109 (the medium-term upper neutrality range -see weekly technical outlook). However, failure to hold above 6030/18 should negate the short-term bullish tone to see another slide to retest the 6000/5986 key medium-term support.
  • Germany 30 -  Pushed up but still below the 13450 key short-term resistance. Maintain bearish bias below 13450 for a potential push down   towards the 13130 key medium-term support. On the flipside, a break above 13450 may negate the bearish tone to see a revival of the bulls to retest the current all-time of 13600 in the first step.

Commodities – Gold & WTI still holding above supports

  • Gold As long as 1342 key short-term support holds, it can still shape another potential push up to target the significant resistance of 1375/1378 (major upside trigger level for a potential multi-month up move). However, a break below 1342 should damage the medium-term uptrend for a minor corrective decline towards the next support at 1324/1317 (former swing high of 05/10 Jan 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 12 Dec 2017 low to 25 Jan 2018 high).
  • WTI Crude (Mar 2018) – Rise in progress as expected and coming close to the first resistance/target of 66.66. No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips with a tightened key short-term support now at  65.70 (minor ascending trendline from 23 Jan 2018 low) for a potential up move to target next near-term resistance at  67.60/68.40 (Fibonacci projection cluster + upper boundary of medium-term ascending channel from 14 Dec 2017 low). Below 65.70 should negate the bullish tone for a deeper slide to retest the next minor support at 64.75 (former minor swing highs of 16/24 Jan 2018). 

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform


 


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