Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias Key/Levels (Mon 22 Jan)

FX –  USD managed to rebound from supports with bullish signals

  • EUR/USDLast Fri, 19 Jan push up had managed to stall right below the 1.2305 key short-term resistance and ended the week with  a weekly bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern. Another sign of bullish exhaustion to at least see a potential minor corrective decline/retracement of the recent up move from  12 Dec 2017 low.  No change, maintain bearish bias below 1.2305 resistance with 1.2165 as downside trigger to reinforce the start of a  potential minor corrective downleg towards the next near-term support at 1.2125 follow by the 1.2090/2070 support zone (former swing highs area of Sep 2017/04 Jan 2018). On the flipside, a clearance above 1.2305 should see bulls back in control for a continuation of the extension upleg towards the next resistance zone at 1.2380/2415 (upper boundary of a major ascending channel from 03 Jan 2017).
  • GBP/USD –  Still hovering below the 1.3940 key short-term resistance. No change, maintain bearish bias below 1.3940 resistance with 1.3807 as downside trigger level (former minor swing high areas of 15/17 Jan 2018) to reinforce the start of a minor corrective downleg to target the next near-term supports at 1.3745 (minor swing low area of  16 Jan 2018) follow by 1.3700 next (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 16 Dec 2017 low to yesterday high + median line of the medium-term ascending channel from 03 Nov 2017 low). On the other hand, a break above 1.3940 should see a further potential up move towards the next resistance at 1.4130 (swing low area of 03 Apr 2016 + upper boundary of the major ascending channel from 15 Jan 2017 low).
  • AUD/USD – Last Fri, 19 Jan push up had managed to stall right at the 0.8040/60 key short-term resistance zone (printed a high of 0.8039) and formed a daily bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern, a sign of bullish exhaustion to at least see a potential minor corrective decline/retracement of the recent up move from 09 Jan 2018. Flip back to bearish bias below 0.8040 key short-term resistance a potential push down towards the near-term supports of 0.7940 follow by  0.7900/7885 next (former medium-term swing high area of  13/19 Oct 2017 + medium-term ascending channel support from 08 Dec 2017 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the whole up move from 08 Dec 2017 low to yesterday high). However, a clearance above 0.8040 should put the bulls back in control for a further potential rally towards the next resistance at 0.8125 (medium-term swing highs at 10 May 2015 & 03 Sep 2017).  
  • NZD/USD – No change, maintain bearish bias below 0.7340 key short-term resistance with 0.7235 as the downside trigger level (medium-term ascending channel from 08 Dec 2017 low) to reinforce a potential minor corrective decline towards the next near-term support of 0.7140 (swing low of 09 Jan 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 08 Dec 2017 low to yesterday high). However, a clearance above 0.7340 should see the continuation of the extension up move to target the next resistance at 0.7435 (medium-term swing high of 20 Sep 2017).
  • USD/JPY – Broke below the tightened 110.85 short-term support which invalidated the direct rise scenario but still manage to hold above the 110.20/110.00 support (17 Jan 2018 low + Fibonacci cluster). The USD underperformance is likely due to the upcoming BOJ’s monetary policy decision outcome out tomorrow on Tues, 23 Jan. Ended last week with a weekly “Doji-liked” candlestick above the 110.20/110.00 which indicates some “hesitation”  by the bears to push it lower. Coupled with a positive short-term momentum reading seen on the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator as it has started to inch up from its oversold region. Tolerate last Fr’s excess and  maintain bullish bias above 110.20/110.00 support for a further potential minor push up to target the near-term resistances at  111.70/80 follow by 112.10 next(former medium-term swing low areas of 06 Dec/15 Dec 2017/02 Jan 2018 + Fibonacci cluster). On the other hand, failure to hold above 110.00 should see the bears back in control and opens up scope for an extension of the drop towards the next support at  108.15/108.00 (medium-term swing low areas of 17 Apr/29 Aug 2017).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Mix bag with further potential upside in U.S, Hong Kong & Germany

  • US SP 500 – Pull-backed in last Fri, 19 Jan Asian session and managed to stall a rebound right at the predefined tightened key short-term support of 2791. It rallied throughout the European/ U.S. sessions and ended with another new all-time high of 2812.  No change, maintain bullish bias with a tightened key short-term support now at 2794 (minor ascending trendline from 10 Jan 2018 low + 23.6 % Fibonacci retracement of the recent on-going rally from 10 Jan 2018 low to last Fri high) for a further potential push up to target the first medium-term resistance at 2820 (see latest weekly technical outlook). On the other hand, a break below 2794 should negate the bullish tone to see a slide back to retest the 2780/68 zone.
  • Japan 225 –No change, still stuck inside the neutrality range. Maintain neutral stance between 23650 & 23900 Only a break above 23900 is likely to put the bulls back in control for another round of potential upleg to target the near-term resistance of 24200 (Fibonacci projection cluster + exit potential of the recent triangle range bullish breakout).
  • Hong Kong 50 – Continued to inch higher last Fri, 19 Jan and today Asian session opening hour slide has managed to hold above the predefined tightened key short-term support at 31850 (printed a current intraday low of 32023). No change, maintain bullish bias above 31850 support for a further potential push up to target 32370 (1.00 Fibonacci projection from 15 Jan minor low to 16 Jan 2018  minor low projected from 17 Jan 2018 low) follow by 32530 (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel from 21 Dec 2017 low + 1.236 Fibonacci projection from 15 Jan minor low to 16 Jan 2018  minor low projected from 17 Jan 2018 low. However, failure to hold above 31850 should negate the bullish tone for a corrective slide to 31660 (minor swing low area of 17 Jan 2018).
  • Australia 200 – Looking vulnerable for a medium-term corrective decline as it is now sliding down to retest the 6026/5996 key medium-term support/excess for the third time. No change, maintain neutrality stance first between 6026/5996 & 6042. Only an hourly close above 6042 is likely to revive the bullish tone for a potential push up towards 6109 (the minor swing high of 15 Jan 2018 + medium-term upside trigger)
  • Germany 30 – Rallied and broke above the 13350 upside trigger level. Flip back to bullish bias in any minor setbacks above 13340 key short-term support (former minor swing high of 16 Jan 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally from  19 Jan 2018 low to last Fri high) for a further potential push to target the 13530/560 near-term resistance (07 Nov 2017 swing high area) follow by 13790/800 next (Fibonacci projection cluster + upper boundary of ascending channel from 02 Jan 2018 low).  However, failure to hold above 13340 may negate the preferred bullish tone for a choppy decline to retest the minor range support of 13130.

Commodities – Watch the 1320 support in Gold while upside momentum seem to have resurfaced in WTI

  • Gold Still at risk of a minor corrective decline. A break below the 1320 lower neutrality range is likely to trigger a corrective slide to retest 1308/1305 support(minor swing low area of 09/10 Jan 2018). On the other hand, a break above 1340 should shift the focus back to the bulls for another round of potential up move to target 1357 (swing high of 08 Sep 2017) before the significant resistance of 1375/1378 (major upside trigger level for a potential multi-month up move).
  • WTI Crude (Mar 2018) – Managed to hold above 63.00 lower neutrality range zone coupled with a bullish divergence signal seen in the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator which indicates a revival in short-term upside momentum of price action. Flip back to bullish bias above 63.00/62.80 key short-term support (minor ascending trendline from 14 Dec 2018 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 14 Dec 2018 low to 16 Jan 2018 high) for a further potential up move to retest  64.82 (16 Jan 2018 high) follow by 65.20 significant medium-term resistance  (former major swing lows area of Sep 2009/May 2010). However, a break below 62.80 should invalidated the bullish tone for a potential minor corrective pull-back towards the 60.50/59.50 support zone (50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally from 14 Dec 2017 low to 16 Jan 2018 high).

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform



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