Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Mon 19 Mar)

USD continues to show strength ahead of FOMC except against GBP & JPY. Stock indices remain on supports with Hong Kong (Hang Seng) showing further potential outperformance. Short-term bullish breakout seen in WTI Crude.

FX – USD continues to strengthen ahead of FOMC except against GBP & JPY

  • EUR/USD – Continued to incher lower and hit the 1.2280/2265 short-term support/target (05/09 Mar 2018 swing low area) as expected. Printed a low of 1.2260 in last Fri, 16 Mar U.S. session. No clear signs of short-term bearish exhaustion at this juncture as indicated by momentum indicators where the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator still has potential room to manoeuvre to the downside before it reaches an extreme overbought level of  3% . Maintain bearish bias in any bounce below adjusted short-term key resistance now at 1.2320 (minor descending trendline from 14 Mar 2018 high + close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going slide from 14 Mar high to 16 Mar 2018 low) for a further potential push down to target 1.2220/2200 (the former swing low area of 08/10 Mar 2018 – a failure bearish breakdown that occurred  on 01 Mar 2018   + Fibonacci projection cluster).  However, a clearance above 1.2320 should invalidate the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards the 1.2350/2385 resistance (descending trendline from 16 Feb 2018 low + former minor swing low area of 14 Mar 2018).
  • GBP/USD – Pushed up in last Fri, 16  Mar European session but failed to break above the 1.4000 upside trigger level and thereafter it whipsawed around the 1.3910 key short-term support.  Mix elements, prefer to turn neutral between 1.4000 & 1.3890 (last Fri, 16 Mar U.S. session low). A break below 1.3890 should invalidate the recent  bullish “Flag” breakout on 13 Mar 2018 for a further potential slide to retest 1.3800/3760.  
  • AUD/USD -  Pushed down as expected and hit the 0.7715 short-term support/target (01 Mar 2018 swing low area). Maintain bearish bias  in any bounce  below adjusted key short-term resistance now at 0.7760 (former minor congestion areas of 02/06 Mar 2018 + close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going slide from 14 Mar high to today, 19 Mar current intraday session low of 0.7698) for a further potential push down to target the next near-term support at 0.7655/7640 (former minor range resistance of 27 Nov/05 Dec 2017 + Fibonacci projection cluster).  On the flipside, a break above 0.7760 should invalidate the bearish bias for a potential corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.7800 in first step (last Fri, 16 Mar high + 50%  Fibonacci retracement of the on-going slide from 14 Mar high to today, 19 Mar current intraday session low of 0.7698).
  • NZD/USD – Pushed down as expected and almost met the 0.7200/7180 significant neckline support of an impending medium-term bearish “Double Top” configuration in shape since 24 Jan 2018 high (printed a low of 0.7208 in last Fr, 16 Mar U.S. session). Mix elements now in short-term, prefer to turn neutral first between 0.7200/7180 & 0.7260 (former minor swing low of 09 Mar 2018 that capped last Fri, 16 Mar pushed up + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the current slide seen from 13 Mar high to 16 Mar 2018 low).  A break below 0.7180 should validate a further potential direct drop towards the next intermediate support zone at 0.7100/7060 (medium-term ascending trendline from 17 Nov 2017 + Fibonacci projection cluster).
  • USD/JPY – Pushed down as expected an almost met the upper limit of the 106.50/25 key medium-term support/target (also the ascending trendline from Jun 2016 low) as it printed a low of 105.60 on last Fri, 16 Mar U.S. session. Mix elements now as the pair seems to be evolving near the 106.50 lower limit of an impending minor bearish “descending triangle” range configuration since 21 Feb 2018 high.  Prefer to turn neutral first between 106.50/25 & 107.30 (13 Mar 2018 minor swing high + aforementioned “descending triangle” range resistance).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Testing/holding at supports with potential outperformance in Hong Kong

  • US SP 500 – Traded sideways again on last Fri, 16 Mar U.S. session between the 2755/40 key short-term support & the 2760 upside trigger level No change, maintain bullish bias above 2755/40 key short-term support with 2760 remains as the upside trigger (the minor descending trendline from 13 Mar high + yesterday, 14 Mar U.S. session) to reinforce a potential recovery to retest 2802 (13 Mar high) before targeting the next intermediate resistance at 2835 in the first step. (minor range resistance from 31 Jan/02 Feb 2018 + Fibonacci projection cluster). However, failure to hold above 2740 should see a deeper pull-back towards the next support at 2700/2680 (key medium-term support + lower boundary of the medium-term ascending  channel from 06 Feb 2018 low).
  • Japan 225 –  Broke below the 21680/500 in today, 19 Mar early Asian session.  Mix elements now as the Index seems to be evolving in a short-term sideways choppy configuration with a bullish divergence signal seen in the hourly Stochastic oscillator at its oversold region. Prefer to turn neutral first between 21200 (minor swing low area of 07 Mar 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior up move from 02 Mar low to 13 Mar 2018 high) & 21740 (minor descending trendline in place since 13 Mar 2018 high. Only a clearance above 21740 is likely to reinstate the bullish tone for a short-term push up to target the 22510 neckline resistance of the impending bullish “Double Bottom” configuration in place since 10 Feb 2018 low.
  • Hong Kong 50 – Continued to hold above the 31060 key short-term support (the minor ascending channel support from 05 Mar 2018 low + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 07 Mar 2018 low to 13 Mar 2018 high) as expected. In today, 19 Mar early Asian session, it managed to stage a rebound to retest close to the  13 Mar 2018 minor swing high of 31689. No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips above 31060 key short-term support for a further potential push up to target the 31800 key medium-term upside trigger level in the first step (the gapped down seen on 06 Feb 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 29 Jan high to 09 Feb 2018 U.S. session low). A clearance above 31800 (an hourly close above it) is likely to open up scope for a further rally to target  the next intermediate resistance at 32500 (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel  & the 1.00 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 09 Feb 2018 low to 27 Feb 2018 high projected from 05 Mar 2018 low). However, failure to hold above 31060 should invalidate the recovery for a deeper slide to retest the 30100/30070 key medium-term support.
  • Australia 200 – Broke above the 5950 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone (see previous report) and staged a retest on it in today, 19 Mar early Asian session. In addition, the hourly Stochastic oscillator has just exited from its oversold region. Flip back to a short-term bullish bias above 5934 key short-term support (today, 19 Mar current intraday day) for a further push up to test the next intermediate resistance at 6000/6010 (the upper limit of a potential triangle range configuration in place since 27 Feb 2018 high + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of this week decline from 12 Mar high to 15 Mar 2018 low). On the flipside, a break below 5934 should negate the bulls for a deeper slide to retest the 5880 key medium-term support.
  • Germany 30 – Rise in progress in the short-term. Maintain bullish bias in any dips above adjusted 12290 key short-term support (former minor swing high area of 14 Mar 2018) for a further potential push up to test the 12550 neckline resistance of an impending “Double Bottom” in shape since 06 Feb 2018 low. However, failure to hold above 12290 should negate the bulls for another round of choppy decline to retest  the 11900/11800 major support zone.

Commodities – Short-term bullish breakout in WTI

  • Gold – Broke below the 1317/1312 key short-term support that invalidated the short-term range push up scenario in line with a resurgence of USD strength in the short-term. Turn bearish now in any bounce below 1321 key short-term resistance (Last Fri, 16 Mar European session high) for a further potential push down to test the 1303/1300 medium-term range support. On the flipside, a break above 1321 should see a squeeze up to retest minor range resistance of 1327/30 (swing high areas of 08/14 Mar 2018).
  • WTI Crude (Apr 2018) – Broke above the 62.00 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone (the descending trendline from 27 Feb 2018 high + minor swing high of 13 Mar 2018). Turn bullish above 61.44 short-term support (the former minor swing high area of 15 Mar 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 14 Mar 2018 low) for further potential push up to retest the 64.00/64.20 swing high area of 27 Feb 2018 within a medium-term range configuration in place since 25 Jan 2018. However, failure to hold above 61.44 should invalidate the short-term bullish scenario to see another round of choppy decline to retest the 60.15 intermediate range support (minor swing low areas of  02/09 Mar 2018)

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform




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