Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend/Bias Key Levels (Mon 19 Feb)

USD remains in a downtrend, watch 105.55 support for USD/JPY. No clear bullish exhuastion signs on major stock indices. Gold is still holding above 1336 key short-term support.

FX – USD remains below resistances, watch the 105.55 support for USD/JPY

  • EUR/USD – Continued to push up as expected on last Fri, 16 Feb and almost hit the resistance/target of 1.2575 in the Asian session as it printed a high of 1.2555 (1.2575 = 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 10 Feb 2018 low to 14 Feb 2018 minor swing high projected from 14 Feb 2018 pull-back low of 1.2276 – the extended 5th wave target/residual up move of the minor degree bullish impulsive cycle in place since 10 Feb 2018 low before a potential minor correction occurs based on Elliot Wave/fractal analysis). Thereafter, profit-taking took shaped and saw the pair shed 162 pips to print a low of 1.2393 in the U.S. session without any major EUR & U.S related data releases. The aforementioned pull-back has now allowed the pair to hover just above its predefined 1.2385 tightened key short-term support (see previous report) (now also the minor ascending trendline of the recent up move from 10 Feb 2018) with the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator that has hooked up at is oversold region. Thus, no clear signs of bullish exhaustion yet, maintain bullish bias above 1.2385 support for another leg of potential up move to target 1.2575 resistance and above it opens up for an extension to test the significant resistance at 1.2635 (long-term primary descending channel resistance from Jul 2008 + Fibonacci cluster). However, failure  to hold above 1.2385 should invalidated the up move  for a slide to retest 14 Feb 2018 low of 1.2276 in the first step.
  • GBP/USD – Cleared above the 1.4000 upside trigger level on last Thurs, 15 Feb before it staged a pull-back. The hourly Stochastic oscillator has flashed a bullish divergence signal at its oversold region which indicates last Fri, 16 Feb slide in price action has started to lose its downside momentum. No change, maintain bullish bias above the tightened key short-term support now at 1.3915 (former minor swing high of 13 Feb 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 10 Feb low to 16 Feb 2018 high) for a further potential push up to target the 1.4270/4310 range resistance in place since 25 Jan 2018 in the first step. On the flipside, failure to hold above 1.3915 should invalidate the further upleg scenario for a slide back to retest 14 Feb 2018 low of 1.3800.
  • AUD/USD – Rallied as expected from the predefined tightened key short-term support of 0.7870 (printed a low of 0.7892 on last Thurs, 15 Feb U.S. session) and hit a significant near-term resistance/target of 0.7980/7990 (former minor swing low of 01 Feb 2018 + Fibonacci cluster). No clear signs of bullish  exhaustion yet and the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has just turned up and exited from its oversold region. Maintain bullish bias above adjusted key short-term support at 0.7890 (minor swing low areas of 15/16 Feb 2018 ) for another round of potential upleg to retest 0.7980/7990 and above 0.7990 opens up scope for a further up move to target the next resistance at 0.8045 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 27 Jan high to 09 Feb 2018 low). However, a break below 0.7890 should invalidate the bullish scenario for a slide back to retest 14 Feb 20187 low of 0.7773.
  • NZD/USD – Rise in progress as expected. Maintain bullish bias above tightened key short-term support now at 0.7370 (minor swing low areas of 15/15 Feb 2018 + Fibonacci retracement cluster) for a further potential push up to target the major resistance of 0.7485/7500 (multi-month range top in place since Sep 2016 + 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the  08 Feb 2018 low to 14 Feb 2018 minor high projected from yesterday low of 0.7240). On the flipside a break below 0.7370 should negate the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 0.7330 support (former minor swing high area of 14 Feb 2018 + pull-back support of the former descending trendline from 25 Jan 2018 high.
  • USD/JPY – Broke below 106.50 on last Thurs, 15 Feb and hit the 105.55 support as expected (former medium-term swing high area of  28 Oct 2016 + 0.764 Fibonacci projection of the decline from  06 Nov 2017 high to 26 Jan 2018 low projected from 02 Feb 2018 high) before it staged a minor rebound on last Fri, 16 Feb European session. Flip back to bearish bias below 106.50/85 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 08 Feb 2018 high to last Fri, 16 Feb low of 105.55) and a break below 105.55 is likely to reinforce a further potential downleg to target the next support at 104.55/35 (Fibonacci projection cluster). However, a break above 106.85 should negate the bearish tone for a push up to retest 107.40/60 resistance zone (former medium-term swing low area of 08 Sep  2017 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 08 Feb 2018 high to last Fri, 16 Feb low of 105.55).

Stock Indices – Further potential upside while Hong Kong is still close for holiday

  • US SP 500 – Continued to push up as expected and hit the near-term resistance/target of 2728/45 as expected (printed a high of 2754 on last Fri, 16 Feb U.S. session (neckline of the minor “Double Bottom” in place since last Tues, 06 Feb low + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the steep decline from 29 Jan 2018 high to 05 Feb 2018 U.S. session low).  No change, maintain bullish bias above tightened key short-term support now at 2720 (former neckline resistance area of the minor “Double Bottom” + pull-back support of the former descending resistance from 29 Jan 2018 high + minor ascending channel support from 10 Feb 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next near-term resistance at 2795/2800 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the steep decline from 29 Jan 2018 high to 05 Feb 2018 U.S. session low + 1.382 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 09 Feb 2018 U.S. session low to 12 Feb 2018 minor high projected from yesterday, 14 Feb U.S. session low). However, failure to hold above 2720 should negate the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 2662 (former minor swing high area of 13 Feb 2018).
  • Japan 225 – Cleared above the 21730 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone. Turn bullish above 21570 (former minor swing high area of 15 Feb 2018 + minor ascending channel support from 10 Feb 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next resistances at 22250 (minor swing high area of 07 Feb 2018) follow by 22800 next (close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 23 Jan 2018 high to 09 Feb 2018 U.S. session low). However, a break below 21570 should negate the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the minor range support of 21000.
  • Hong Kong 50 – Rise as expected on last Thurs, 15 Feb U.S. session and almost hit the short-term resistance/target of 31280/400 (minor swing high of 07 Feb 2018 + descending trendline from 29 Jan 2018 high + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 29 Jan high to 09 Feb 2018 U.S. session low). Close for a public holiday today and market will open tom, 20 Feb.  Key short-term support now at 30075 (minor swing low of 14 Feb 2018 + ascending trendline from 09 Feb 2018 low) with next near-term resistance coming in at 31800/32000 (the gapped down seen on 06 Feb 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 29 Jan high to 09 Feb 2018 U.S. session low).
  • Australia 200 – Hit the 5914 short-term resistance/target as expected.  Maintain bullish bias in any dips above 5870 (former minor swing high area of 14 Feb 2018 + minor asecending trendline from 10 Feb 2018) for a further potential push up to target the next resistance at 5990 (pull-back resistance from the minor swing low of 15 Nov 2017 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 09 Jan 2018 high to 09 Feb 2018 U.S. session low). On the flipside, failure to hold above 5870 should negate the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 5790/80 support (14 Feb 2018 swing low).
  • Germany 30 – Pushed up as expected towards the near-term resistance zone/target  of 12650/12845 (neckline of the minor “Double Bottom” in place since last Tues, 06 Feb low + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the steep decline from 23 Jan 2018 high to 09 Feb 2018 low + descending trendline from 23 Jan 2018 high + former range support from 15 Nov 2017). Maintain bullish bias with adjusted key short-term support at 12370 (16 Feb 2018 low + minor ascending channel support from 10 Feb 2018 low) for a potential push up to target 12650/12845 and above 12845 opens up scope for a further potential rally towards the next near-term resistance at 13130/140 (former minor swing low areas of 11/17 Jan 2018). However, failure to hold at 12370 should negate the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 14 Feb 2018 swing low area of 12110/12070.

Commodities – Gold remains above support

  • Gold – No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips above tightened key short-term support at 1336 (former minor swing high area of 14 Feb 2018 + pull-back support of the former descending trendline from 25 Jan 2018) for a  further potential push up to retest the 25 Jan 2018 swing high of 1365 follow by the major upside trigger level of 1378 (the neckline resistance of the “Bottoming” configuration in place since Nov 2015 low). However, a break below 1336 should negate the bullish tone to see a slide back to retest 1320/1317 (14 Feb 2018 swing low area)
  • WTI (Mar 2018) – Minor recovery in progress as expected. Maintain bullish bias above tightened key short-term support at 61.30/60.90 zone (minor ascending trendline from 14 Feb 2018 low + 16 Feb 2018 low) for a further potential up move to retest 64.10/64.30 in the first step (minor congestion zone of  02/06 Feb 2018 + 61.8%/76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 02 Feb high to 06 Feb 2018 U.S. session low). On the flipside, a break below 60.90 should negate the bullish tone for a slide to retest 16 Feb 2017 low of 59.70.

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform


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