Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Mon 16 Apr)

Mix bag in FX space with EUR & GBP showing risk of short-term weakness against the USD. Major stock indices are still holding at/above their key short-term supports despite last Fri, coordinated airstrikes from U.S, U.K, France on Syria.

FX – Mix bag

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push down towards “triangle range” resistance.  No change, maintain bearish bias below 1.2350 key short-term resistance (the former minor swing low area of 11 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the steep slide seen from 12 Apr Asian session high of 1.2380 to U.S. session low of 1.2298) for a further potential push down towards 1.2280/1.2265 intermediate support (the former minor swing high areas of 05/07 Apr 2018 + Fibonacci cluster). On the other hand, a clearance above 1.2350 shall turn the tide back  to the bulls for push up  to target the upper boundary/resistance of the “triangle range” at  1.2420/2440.
  • GBP/USD –Trend bias: Unclear. The pair traded in a tight range of 76 pips on  last Fri, 13 Apr and it tested the 1.4280 medium-term range resistance (printed a high of 1.4296 on last Fri, European session before it inched back below 1.4280 in the U.S. session. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 1.4280/4296 and 1.4200 (minor ascending channel support from 05 Apr  2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-short-term uptrend from 05 Apr low to 13 Apr 2018 high). A break below 1.4200 is likely to trigger the start of a  minor corrective down move within a medium-term range configuration in place since 25 Jan 2018 towards the 1.4090 intermediate support (former minor swing high area of 04 Apr 2018). On the flipside, a clearance above 1.4296 opens up scope for a further upleg to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.4370 in the first step (Fibonacci cluster).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Up. Broke above the 0.7770/7780 upper limit/resistance of the minor bullish continuation “Ascending Triangle” range configuration on last Fri, 13 Apr (refer to previous report) to print an intraday high of 0.7810 before it pull-backed in U.S. session in light of the coordinated airstrikes on Syria. The pull-backed tested the former 0.7770/7780 minor range resistance before it rebounded. No change,  maintain bullish bias above 0.7740 key short-term support (“Ascending Triangle” range low) for a further push up to target 0.7890 next (medium-term swing high areas of 26 Feb/14 Mar 2018). On the flipside, failure to hold at 0.7740 triggers another round of corrective pull-back towards the 0.7720/0.7700 intermediate support in the first step (the former minor swing high areas of 04/05 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going minor uptrend from 09 Apr 2018 low to yesterday, 11 Apr high of 0.7773).
  • NZD/USD – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range in progress. Maintain bullish bias with key short-term support at 0.7340 (former medium swing high areas of 26 Feb/14 Mar + minor ascending trendline from 06 Apr 2018) for a further potential push up to target  the 0.7430 medium-term range resistance in place since 20 Sep 2017. However, failure to hold at 0.7340 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 0.7320/7300 (the former minor swing high areas of 27 Mar/05 Apr 2018).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Unclear. Pushed up as expected on last Fri, 13 Apr and printed a high of 107.78 in the early U.S. session which is closed to the first target/resistance of 107.80 (former medium-term swing low of 08 Sep 2017). It pull-backed and ended last Fri with a daily bearish “Gravestone Doji” candlestick pattern that indicates a sign of hesitance from the bulls. Mix elements now in the short-term. Prefer to turn neutral now between 106.90 (former minor swing high area of 11 Apr 2018 high + minor ascending channel support from 25 Mar 2018 low) and 107.80.  A break below 106.90 triggers a slide towards 105.85/60  support (minor swing low area of 02/04 Apr 2018 + pull-back support of the former medium-term “Descending Wedge” resistance from 21 Feb 2018 high).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Still holding above key short-term supports

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Push up within “triangle” range. Last Fri, 13 Apr, the Index staged an initial push up to test 2680/90 intermediate resistance  (27 Mar 2018 minor swing high + neckline of minor  bullish reversal “Inverse Head & Shoulder” configuration) before it pull-backed a low of 2644 in light of the coordinated airstrikes from U.S, U.K, France on Syria. Interestingly, the S&P 500 formed a bullish “Hammer” candlestick pattern at the last hour of last Fri, 13 Apr U.S. session. In addition, the high beta Nasdaq 100 Index had managed to stage a bullish breakout from the neckline resistance of its  parallel minor  bullish reversal “Inverse Head & Shoulder” configuration at 6630 (ahead of the S&P 500).  Last Fri, it pull-backed to retest the 6630 former neckline resistance and formed a hourly “Hammer” candlestick at the last hour of the U.S. session.  No change, maintain bullish bias with an adjusted key short-term support at 2644/30 (excess) (minor swing low of 11 Apr 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 02 Apr 2018 U.S. session low+ 50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going push up from 06 Apr 2018  U.S. session low to 13 Apr U.S. session high) and a break above 2680 triggers a minor bullish breakout for a further potential up move to target 2740/50 next (medium-term triangle range resistance from 29 Jan 2018 high + Fibonacci cluster). However, failure to hold at 2625  shall see another round of slide to retest the 2585 key medium-term support.
  • Japan 225 Trend bias: Pushed up within sideways range. No change, maintain bullish bias above the 21530 key short-term support (10 Apr 2018 Asian session low + minor ascending trendline from 24 Mar 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 22100 (minor swing high area of 13 Mar 2018). However, a break below 21530  negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest the 21300 (the pull-back support of the former “Descending Wedge” resistance).
  • Hong Kong 50 -Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. In today, 16 Apr early Asian session, the Index has staged a pull-back and challenged the 30400 key short-term support with the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator back at its oversold region. Tolerate the excess to 30000/29950 (psychological level +  former swing low areas of 23 Mar/03 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 04 Apr 2018 low to 12 Apr 2018 high) for a potential recovery to retest 30985/31165 (today, 16 Apr 2018 current Asian session high + 12 Apr 2018 high).  However, failure to hold at 30000/29950 sees a further slide all the way back to 29200/29070 (the swing low areas of 09 Feb/04 Apr 2018).
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. No change, maintain bullish bias above 5815 adjusted key short-term support (14 Apr low + minor ascending trendline from 04 Apr 2018 low) for a further potential push up to retest 5872 (today, 16 Apr current Asian session high) before targeting  the next intermediate resistance at 5910 (former minor range support from 07/20 Mar 2018). However, a break below 5780 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 5750/46 (last Fri, 06 Apr U.S. session swing low area).  
  • Germany 30Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. No change, maintain bullish bias above adjusted key short-term support now at 12400/300 (former minor swing high area of 10 Apr 2018 + minor ascending channel support from 04 Apr 2018 low) and a break above 12560 (last Fri, 13 Apr minor swing high area) is likely to reinforce a further potential up move to target the next intermediate resistance at 12750/865 (former range support from 15 Nov 2017/02 Jan 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from its current all-time high printed on 23 Jan 2018 to 06 Feb 2018 low). On the other hand, a break below 12300 (an hourly close below it) negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the 12180/150 support (minor swing low area of 06 Apr + pull-back support of former minor descending resistance from 27 Feb 2018 high).

Commodities – Watch the 1348/53 short-term resistance on Gold

  • WTI Crude (May 2018) – Trend bias: Up. Maintain bullish bias above 66.10/66.00 (excess) key short-term support (the former range resistance in place since 25 Jan 2018 high) for a further potential up move to target the intermediate resistance of 69.10/90 in the first step (50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous primary down trend from Aug 2013 high to Feb 2016 low + former major range support from Dec 2009/May 2010), However, a break below 66.00 is considered as a failure bullish breakout to see another round of choppy decline towards the intermediate support of 63.90/80 (former minor swing high areas of 04/05 Apr 2018) within the multi-month range configuration since 25 Jan 2018.
  • Gold - Trend bias: Push down within range configuration. Maintain bearish bias below 1348/53 (excess) key short resistance (former minor ascending trendline support from 06 Apr 2018 low + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from the major range resistance of 1365/78 to 13 Apr 2018 low) for a further potential push down to retest 1322/1320 minor swing low area of 06 Apr  2018. A break below 1320 sees a further slide towards the 1310/1305 range support in place since 08 Feb 2018 low. On the other hand, a break above 1348/53 shall see a squeeze back up again to retest the 1365/78 major range resistance in place since Jul 2016.

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform




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