Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias Key Levels Mon 02 Apr
Kelvin Wong April 2, 2018 4:30 AM
Mix bag for FX with GBP/USD pull-backed towards key short-term inflection level where a potential recovery may materialise. S&P 500 managed to hold at the 2600/2585 key medium-term support.
FX – Mix bag with GBP/USD at key short-term inflection level
- EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push down within sideways range. Continued to evolve within a “triangle range” configuration in place since 16 Feb 2018 high. Last week high of 1.2476 printed on 27 Mar had stalled right at 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the previous decline from 16 Feb high to 01 Mar 2018 minor low of 1.2153 which coincided with the upper boundary/resistance of the “triangle range”. Key short-term resistance stands at 1.2390/2400 (former minor swing low area of 28 Mar 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 27 Mar minor high to 29 Mar 2018 minor swing low of 1.2282) for a potential push down to retest the lower boundary/support of the “triangle range” at 1.2230. On the flipside, a break above 1.2400 invalidates the minor push down scenario for a squeeze up to retest 1.2535/40 (range top in place since 25 Jan 2018).
- GBP/USD – Trend bias: Up. Last week’s decline from 26 Mar 2018 minor high of 1.4245 has stalled at a potential inflection level (minor ascending channel support from 01 Mar 2018 low + Fibonacci cluster) for the pair to resume its up move within a minor uptrend in place since 01 Mar 2018 low. In addition, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has traced out a bullish divergence signal at its oversold region that indicates the downside momentum of the recent decline has abated. Key short-term support now at 1.4000 for a potential up move to retest 1.4200/4240 (26 Mar 2018 minor swing high). However, failure to hold above 1.4000 negates recovery for a deeper slide towards the next intermediate support at 1.3920 (former congestion zone of 06/16 Mar 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 01 Mar low to 26 Mar 2018 high).
- AUD/USD – Trend bias: Push up within descending range. Last week’s decline from 26 Mar 2018 minor high of 0.7757 had stalled right at the lower boundary/support of a medium-term “Descending Wedge” range configuration in place since 16 Feb 2018 high which also coincided with a Fibonacci cluster. Key short-term support at 0.7640 for a potential push up to retest 0.7755/7780 (22 Mar 2018 minor swing high) in the first step. On the flipside, a break below 0.7640 invalidates the push up scenario for a further slide towards the lower boundary of a major “Ascending Wedge” range configuration in place since Jan 2016 low now acting as a support at 0.7600.
- NZD/USD - Trend bias: Unclear. Prefer to maintain neutrality stance between 0.7250 (30 Mar 2018 high) & 0.7190 (29 Mar 2018 minor swing low). A break below 0.7180 should reinstate the bearish tone for a slide to target the next intermediate support at 0.7100 (Fibonacci cluster).
- USD/JPY - Trend bias: Up. Pull-backed from 29 Mar 2018 high of 107.01 and right now it is resting on a minor ascending trendline support from 26 Mar 2018 low which also coincides with a Fibonacci cluster at 106.00. Key short-term support will be at 106.00 for another potential upleg to retest the next intermediate resistance at 107.20 (minor swing high areas of 01/13 Mar 2018). On the other hand, failure to hold above 106.00 is likely to resume its medium-term down move to retest 104.65 (26 Mar 2018 swing low area).
Stock Indices (CFD) – S&P 500 managed to hold right at the 2600/85 significant range support
- US SP 500 – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. Managed to stage a rebound at the end of last week (29 Mar) right at the 2600/2585 key medium-term support (lower boundary of the triangle range configuration in place since 06 Feb 2018 low. Key short-term support will be at 2617 (former minor swing high area of 28 Mar 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 28 Mar 2018 low) for a further potential push up to retest the next intermediate resistance at 2690/93 in the first step (former minor swing low areas of 07/20 Mar 2018). Failure to hold above 2617 is likely to see another round of choppy slide to retest the 2600/2585 key medium-term support.
- Japan 225 – Trend bias: Up. Inching up towards the upper limit of a medium-term “Descending Wedge” range configuration (a bullish reversal chart pattern) at 21600. Key short-term support will be at 21300 (former minor swing high area of 29 Mar 2018 + minor ascending channel support from 24 Mar 2018 low) and a break above 21600 (an hourly close above it) is likely to open up scope for a further potential push up to test the next intermediate resistance at 22050 (minor swing high area of 13 Mar 2018 + minor ascending channel resistance). However, a break below 21300 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest 20890 (former minor congestion zone of 23/28 Mar 2018).
- Hong Kong 50 – Cash stock market close for public holiday
- Australia 200 – Cash stock market close for public holiday
- Germany 30 – Cash stock market close for public holiday
Commodities –Gold reverts back to choppy range trading environment
- Gold - Trend bias: Unclear. Prefer to turn neutral between 1340 & 1321 (29 Mar 2018 minor low). A break below 1321 is likely to see a further slide to retest the medium-term range support of 1307/1300 in place since 08 Feb 2018.
- WTI Crude (May 2018) – Trend bias: Unclear. Pushed up and almost met the 66.66 resistance (medium-term swing high of 25 Jan 2018) as it printed a swing high of 66.55 on 26 Mar 2018. Prefer to turn neutral now between 66.66 & 63.72. A break below 63.72 is likely to trigger a corrective decline to test the next intermediate support at 63.35/30 (medium-term ascending channel support from 09 Feb 2018 low + former minor range resistance of 12/17 Mar 2018).
*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform
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