Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Fri 06 Apr)

USD at/coming close to resistances ahead of NFP with major stock indices still hold above key short-term supports despite U.S. President Trump's latest trade tariffs proposals on China.

FX – USD at/coming close to resistances ahead of NFP

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push up within “triangle range”. The pair broke below the 1.2270 lower limit of the short-term neutrality zone (refer to yesterday report) and drifted down towards the lower boundary/support of the “triangle range” at  1.2230 (printed a low of 1.2218 in yesterday, 05 Apr U.S. session before it rebounded to close above 1.2230 at the end of the U.S. session at 1.2238). The 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has just exited from its oversold region and still has upside potential towards its extreme overbought level at 93%. Flip to a bullish bias with key short-term support at 1.2230/2190 (excess; swing low areas of 28 Feb/01 Mar 2018) with 1.2280 as the upside trigger level (yesterday, 05 Apr European session high) to reinforce a potential push up to test 1.2340 (minor swing high area of 02 Apr 2018) before the upper boundary/resistance of the “triangle range” at  1.2420/2440. On the other hand, a break below 1.2190 invalidates the push up scenario of a deeper slide towards the key medium-term support at 1.2070/2030 (former medium-term swing high area of 29 Aug/08 Sep 2017 + Fibonacci retracement cluster).
  • GBP/USD – Trend bias: Unclear. Whipsawed around the 1.4000 key short-term support (printed an intraday low of 1.3965 in yesterday, 05 Apr U.S. session before it inched back up above 1.4000). Mix elements, prefer to turn neutral now between 1.4090 & 1.3965. Only a clearance above 1.4090 (an hourly close above it) is likely to reinstate the bullish tone for a potential upleg to  retest 1.4200/4240 (26 Mar 2018 minor swing high) in the first step. On the flipside, a break below 1.3965 sees a deeper slide towards next intermediate support at 1.3920/3900 (former congestion zone of 06/16 Mar 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 01 Mar low to 26 Mar 2018 high).
  • AUD/USD - Push up within descending range in progress. Drifted downwards but manage to hold the 0.7667 key short-term support (printed a current intraday low of 0.7658 in today, 06 Apr Asian session after the announcement of U.S. President Trump’s proposal to slap another US$100 billion of tariffs on China products but no hourly close below 0.7667). Maintain bullish bias with 0.7667/7658 key short term support for a potential push up to retest 0.7725 (05 Apr 2018 minor swing high) before targeting 0.7755/7780 (22 Mar 2018 minor swing high). On the flipside, a break below 0.7667 (an hourly close below it) invalidates the push up scenario for a further slide towards the lower boundary of a major “Ascending Wedge” range configuration in place since Jan 2016 low now acting as a support at 0.7600.
  • NZD/USD - Trend bias: Push up within sideways range in progress. Yesterday’s breach below the adjusted 0.7270 key short-term support (printed an intraday low of 0.7262 in the U.S. session follow by another marginal new low of 0.7256 in today, 06 Apr Asian session) is likely whipsaw as the current drop from the 0.7322 high of 05 Apr has managed to stall at the pull-back support of a former medium descending resisance from  16 Feb 2018 high and a Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster). In addition, the hourly Stochastic oscillator has traced out a bullish divergence signal at its oversold region which indicates the downside momentum of yesterday’s slide has started to abate.  Tolerate the excess and maintain bullish bias with 0.7250 as the key short-term support for a potential push up to retest 0.7322 before the next intermediate resistance at 0.7345 (minor swing high areas of 26 Feb/14 Mar 2018) in the first step. On the flipside, a reintegration below 0.7250 represents a failure bullish breakout for a slide back to retest the 0.7190 range support in place since 08 Feb 2018).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Up but coming close to inflection level (risk of consolidation) Pushed up as expected and clear above the first short-term resistance/target of 107.20 (printed an intraday high of 107.49 in yesterday, 05 Apr U.S. session).  Maintain bullish bias with adjusted key short-term support now at 107.00/106.90 (former minor swing high of 29 Mar 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 04 Apr low to 05 Apr 2018 U.S. session high) for another potential push up to target next intermediate resistance at 107.80 (former medium-term swing low of 08 Sep 2017).  However, a break below 106.90 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest 106.50 (former minor swing high area of 04 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 04 Apr low to 05 Apr 2018 U.S. session high).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Still holding above key short-term supports after U.S. President Trump’s latest trade tariffs proposal on China

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Push up within “Triangle Range” in progress. The Index inched higher in yesterday, 05 Apr U.S. session to print an intraday high of 2672 before it declined by 1.6% in today, 06 Apr early Asian session after the announcement of U.S. President Trump’s proposal to slap another US$100 billion of tariffs on China products). The decline has now led the index to hover above the 2610 key short-term support as per highlighted in yesterday’s report (former minor swing high area of 04 Apr 2018 +close to the 50%  Fibonacci retracement of the recovery seen from 04 Apr  low of 2560 to yesterday, 05 Apr U.S. session high of 2672 + pull-back support of the former minor descending resistance from 13 Mar 2018 high). Maintain bullish bias with 2610 remains as the key short-term support for a further potential push up to the next intermediate resistance at 2690 (former minor swing low areas of 07/20 Mar 2018) in the first step. However, a break below 2610 (an hourly close below it negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest the 2585 key medium-term support).
  • Japan 225 Trend bias: Up within sideways range. Inched higher in yesterday, 05 Apr U.S. session to print a high of 21920 before it pull-backed by 1.7% to print a current intraday low of 21549 in today, 06 Apr Asian session.  No change, maintain bullish bias with 21300 remains as key short-term support (pull-back support of the former “Descending Wedge” resistance + close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current up move from 04 Apr European session low of 21035 to 05 Apr 2018 U.S. session high) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 22100 (minor swing high area of 13 Mar 2018) in the first step. However, failure to hold at 21300 negates the bullish tone for another round of choppy slide to retest 21000/20900 minor range support in place since 02 Apr 2018 low).
  • Hong Kong 50 - Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. Key short-term support remains at 29160/29070 with 30120 as upside trigger (minor descending trendline from 21 Mar 2018 high) and an hourly close above 30120 is likely to open up scope for a potential push up to retest the next intermediate resistance at 31140 in(the former minor range support of 14/30 Mar 2018.  A break below 29070 is likely to trigger the start of a medium-term corrective down move to target the next support at 28600/100 (congestion zone of 30 Aug/07 Dec 2017 in the first step.
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. Today, 06 Apr early Asian session decline managed to hold above the 5755 key short-term support (printed a current intraday low of 5760). Maintain bullish bias with 5755 remains as the key short-term support for a potential push up to test the 5850/80 intermediate resistance next (former minor swing low of 05 Mar 2018). On the flipside, a break below 5755 shall see another slide to retest 5705/700 area.
  • Germany 30Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. Cleared above the 12130 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone in yesterday, 05 Apr European session. Flip back to bullish bias with 12130/12060 key short-term support (former minor swing high area of 02 Apr 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent recovery from 04 Apr low to 05 Apr 2018 high) for a further potential push up to target 12500 (intermediate range resistance from  07 Feb 2018 high).On the other hand, a break below 12060 (an hourly close below it) invalidates the push up scenario for another round of choppy decline to retest the 11900/800 major support.

Commodities – Watch the 1345/48 short-term resistance on Gold

  • Gold - Trend bias: Push down within sideways range. Maintain the bearish bias below 1345/48 key short-term resistance for a further potential push down to  retest 1310/1305 range support in place since 08 Feb 2018 low. On the other hand, a break above 1348 shall see a squeeze up to test the 1365/78 major range resistance since Jul 2016.
  • WTI Crude (May 2018) – Trend bias: Push up within range configuration. 62.07 remains as the key short-term support for a potential push back up to retest 65.40 (minor swing high area of 02 Apr 2018) before targeting 66.40/66.66 (medium-term range resistance in place since Jan 2018).  On the flipside, failure to hold at 62.07 shall invalidate the push up scenario for a further slide towards the next intermediate support at 60.18/10 (01/08 Mar swing low areas).

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform


 



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