Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Fri 02 Feb)

FX – Mix bag with EUR/USD popped up ahead of NFP but below key medium-term resistance of 1.2560/85  

  • EUR/USD – The pair pushed up above the 1.2430/54 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone without any clear negative USD specific news flow or economic data releases or positive EUR related news flow (on the contrary, we saw more positive related USD news flow where the Atlanta Fed upgraded its model prediction for U.S. Q1 GDP-annualised  from 4.2% to 5.4%  plus U.S. manufacturing PMI for Jan that has continued to beat expectations). Technically, the “pop-up” above 1.25 has led the pair to hover just below the upper limit of a key medium-term resistance zone at 1.2560 (Fibonacci cluster + exit potential of the “Double Bottom” bullish breakout configuration formed in Mar 2015 to July 2017).  Turn bearish below 1.2560/2585 (excess) key medium-term resistance with 1.2440 (minor ascending trendline from 30 Jan 2018 low + former minor swing high areas of 30 Jan/31 Jan 2018)  as downside trigger level to reinforce a potential swing move down to retest the minor range support at  1.2335/2320.  However, a clearance above 1.2585 should see a further extension of the up move to target the next resistance at  1.2660 (2.00 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 12 Dec 2017 low to 04 Jan 2018 projected from 09 Jan 2018 low) in the first step.
  • GBP/USD –Flirting at the 1.4260 key short-term resistance excess level.  No change, maintain bearish bias below 1.4260 (minor swing high area of 26 Jan 2018 + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the previous slide from 25 Jan high to 30 Jan 2018 low) with 1.4000 as the downside trigger level to increase the conviction for a potential minor corrective decline to target the next near-term support at 1.3930 in the first step (the former minor swing high areas of 18/19 Jan 2018). Below 1.3930 exposes  1.3830/3800 support next (50% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 18 Dec 2017 to 25 Jan 2018 high + major swing low areas of Jan 2009 + Jun 2001 that has been reintegrated above on 17 Jan 2018).  On the flipside, a break above 1.4260 should reinstate the bullish tone for another round of potential upleg to retest the recent high of 1.4345 before targeting 1.4500/4570 (Fibonacci cluster +  major congestion zone of Feb/May 2016 before Brexit vote).
  • AUD/USD - Dropped as expected and hit the first support/downside target of 0.8000/7985 (printed a low of 0.7987 in yesterday, 01 Feb European session). Maintain bearish bias below tightened key short-term resistance at 0.8045 (former minor swing low areas of 30 Jan/01 Feb 2018 + yesterday, 01 Feb U.S. session high) for a further potential push down in this on-going minor corrective decline phase to target the next near-term supports at 0.7940 (minor swing low areas of 16/18 Jan 2018) follow by 0.7890/7880 next (former medium-term swing high of 13 Oct 2017 that has been broken to the upside on 12 Jan 2018 & the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 08 Dec 2017 low to 27 Jan 2018 high).  On the flipside, a break above 0.8045 should negate the bearish tone to see a squeeze up to retest the 0.8100/8115 resistance (minor swing high areas of 30 Jan/01 Feb 2018  + minor descending trendline from 27 Jan 2018 high).
  • NZD/USD – Retreated again from the 0.7420 excess key short-term resistance in yesterday, 01 Feb U.S. session (printed a high of 0.7404). No change, maintain bearish bias below 0.7420 resistance with  0.7270 as downside trigger level for a potential push down to target the next near-term support at  0.7200/0.7190 (former medium-term swing of 13 Oct 2017 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 08 Dec 2017 to 24 Jan 2018). However, a clearance above 0.7420 should reinstate the bullish tone for a potential upleg to retest the recent high of 0.7438 before targeting the major resistance of 0.7485/7520 (swing high areas of 27 Jul 2017/06 Sep 2016).
  • USD/JPY – Continued to push up as expected and right now it is just hovering below the 109.80 as upside trigger level (the minor descending trendline from 08 Jan 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 12 Dec 2017 high to 26 Jan 2018 low). No change, maintain bullish bias above 108.30 key short-term support for a potential minor corrective rebound to target the 110.30/45 resistance (descending trendline from 08 Jan 2018 high + former swing low area of 17 Jan 2018). Above 110.45 opens up scope for a further potential push up towards 110.80/111.00 next (former medium-term swing low area of  27 Nov 2017 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 12 Dec 2017 high to 26 Jan 2018 low. A clear break above 109.80 (an hourly close above it), the key short-term support will be tightened to 108.90 (minor ascending trendline from 30 Jan 2018 low). On the other hand, failure to hold above 108.30 should trigger an extension of the decline towards the next support at 107.40/30 (medium-term swing low of 08 Sep 2017 + 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the down move from 06 Nov to 27 Nov 2017 projected from 12 Dec 2017). 

Stock Indices (CFD) – Still expecting another potential downleg except for Australia

  • US SP 500 – Continued to push down as expected and printed a new minor low of 2808 in yesterday, 01 Feb opening U.S. session. No change, maintain bearish bias below tightened key short-term resistance now at 2836 (minor swing high area of 01/02 Feb 2018) for a further potential push down to target the next near-term support of  2805 and below exposes the next support of  2795/90 next (Fibonacci cluster + lower boundary of minor descending channel in place since 29 Jan 2018.  On the flipside, a break above 2386 should put the bears on hold for a squeeze up to retest 2850/52 resistance (now the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 29 Jan high to 01 Feb 2018 low + former minor swing high areas of 24/25 Jan 2018.
  • Japan 225 – Continued to drop as expected from the 23530 key short-term resistance. No change, maintain bearish bias below 23530 resistance for a further potential push down to target the next near-term support at 22970. A break below 22970 is likely to trigger a further potential downside acceleration towards the next support at 22700/600 (Fibonacci cluster + minor swing low areas of 15 Dec/30 Dec 2017).  On the flipside, a break above 23530 should negate the bearish tone for a push up to retest the recent minor range top of 23800.
  • Hong Kong 50 –  Pushed down as expected and hit the first support/target of 32300. No change, maintain bearish bias below 33070 key short-term resistance for another potential downleg to target next near-term support at 32150/32000 (minor swing low area of 22 Jan 2018 + close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 07 Dec 2017 low to 29 Jan 2018 high).  However, a clearance above 33070 should invalidate the corrective decline scenario for a squeeze up towards to retest 33430/530 key medium-term resistance.
  • Australia 200 – Testing the 6109 upper limit of the medium-term neutrality zone. Waiting for a daily close above it to validate a potential bullish exit with the next near-term resistance at 6160 (recent swing high of 09 Jan 2018)  Meanwhile, the short-term push down scenario towards the  range support of 6000/5986 has been invalidated. Prefer to turn neutral now with key short-term support to watch for today at 6050.
  • Germany 30 – Dropped as expected and hit the support/target of 13035. No signs of bearish exhaustion yet, prefer to maintain bearish bias in any bounce below a tightened key short-term resistance now at 13170 (former minor swing low areas of 11/18/31 Jan 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from the minor swing high of 29 Jan 2018) for a further potential push down towards the major support of 12820/740 (also the primary ascending channel support in place since 24 Jun 2016 low). However, a clearance above 13160 should negative the bearish tone for a relief rebound towards the  13300/410 resistance zone.  

Commodities – Gold is testing key short-term resistance

  • GoldFlirting with the 1347/50 key short-term resistance. Maintain bearish bias but need to break below 1337 (minor ascending trendline from the recent 30 Jan 2018 swing low) to increase the conviction for a a further potential push down to target the near-term support of 1327/1325 in the first step (minor swing low area of 18 Jan 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 12 Dec 2017 low to 25 Jan 2018 high) with a medium-term uptrend in place since 12 Dec  2017 low. On the other hand, a clearance above 1350 should invalidate the minor corrective decline scenario for a recovery to retest the recent high of 1366.
  • WTI Crude (Mar 2018) -  The minor downleg scenario towards 63.00/62.25 has been invalidated through the bullish break of the 65.15 resistance.  Mix elements at this juncture, prefer to turn neutral between 66.60 (25 Jan 2018 swing high) & 65.10

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform


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