Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Wed 11 Apr)

Recent USD weakness seen in EUR & GBP at risk of consolidation.Further potential push up in progress for major stock indices within medium-term bullish range consolidations.

FX – Recent USD weakness in EUR & GBP at risk of consolidation

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Residual push up towards  “triangle range” resistance. Inched higher & hit the first short-term resistance/target at 1.2370 (printed an intraday high of 1.2377 in yesterday, 10 Apr European session).  Maintain bullish bias with an adjusted key short-term support now at 1.2325 (yesterday, 10 Apr U.S. session low that has managed to reverse from the former minor swing high area of 09 Apr 2018 at a similar level + minor ascending trendline from 06 Apr 2018) for a potential residual push up to target the upper boundary/resistance of the “triangle range” at  1.2420/2440 (also a Fibonacci cluster) before risk of consolidation sets in. However, a break below 1.2325 sees a deeper pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 1.2290/2275 (the former minor swing high areas of 05/07 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 06 Apr low to 10 Apr 2018 high).
  • GBP/USD -Trend bias: Residual push up towards range resistance. Inched higher as expected and printed a high of 1.4188 in yesterday, 10 Apr European session. Maintain bullish bias with adjusted short-term support now at 1.4145/35 (yesterday, 10 Apr U.S. session low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 05 Apr low to 10 Apr 2018 high) for a further potential push up to target the 1.4240/4280 range resistance (25 Jan/26 Mar 2018 medium-term swing high areas) before risk of a consolidation sets in. However, failure to hold at 1.4135 sees a deeper pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 1.4090 (the former range resistance from 29 Mar to 05 Apr 2018).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Unclear. Inched higher as expected and it is now coming close to the short-term resistance/target of 0.7755/7780 (22 Mar 2018 minor swing high + “Descending Wedge” upper boundary/resistance in place since 26 Jan 2018 high with mix elements. Prefer to turn neutral now between 0.7780 & 0.7715 (yesterday, 10 Apr European session low + former minor swing high area of 05 Apr 2018). Only a clear break above 0.7780 (an hourly close above it) reinstates the bullish tone for a further push up to target 0.7890 next (medium-term swing high areas of 26 Feb/14 Mar 2018).
  • NZD/USD - Push up within sideways range in progress. Inched higher as expected and cleared above  the first short-term resistance at 0.7345 (printed a high of 0.7376 in yesterday, 10 Apr U.S. session). Maintain bullish bias with adjusted short-term support now at 0.7340 (former medium swing high areas of 26 Feb/14 Mar + minor ascending trendline from 06 Apr 2018) for a further potential push up to target  the 0.7430 medium-term range resistance in place since 20 Sep 2017. However, failure to hold at 0.7340 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 0.7320/7300 (the former minor swing high areas of 27 Mar/05 Apr 2018).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Up. Inched higher to print a minor “higher high” of 107.40 in yesterday, 10 Apr U.S. session before it pull-backed. No change, maintain bullish bias with key short-term support at 106.60 (09 Apr U.S. session low + minor ascending channel support from 26 Mar 2018) for a  potential push up to target next intermediate resistance at 107.80 (former medium-term swing low of 08 Sep 2017) in the first step.  On the flipside, a break below 106.60 invalidates the short-term/minor uptrend in place since 26 Mar 2018 low for another round of choppy decline to retest the next intermediate support at 105.80/65 (minor swing low of 02 Apr 2018 seen in the U.S session + pull-back support of the former medium-term “Descending Wedge” resistance from 21 Feb 2018 high).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Further potential push up within medium-term bullish range consolidations

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Push up within “triangle” range in progress. No change, maintain bullish bias with 2610 remains as the key short-term support (minor ascending trendline support from  03 Apr 2018 low + close to the  61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the push up from last Fri, 06 Apr U.S session low of 2585 to yesterday, 10 Apr high of 2665)for a further potential push up to test the intermediate resistance of 2680/90 (minor swing high area of 27 Mar 2018 + former minor swing low areas of 07/20 Mar 2018).  However, failure to hold at 2610 shall see another round of slide to retest the 2585 key medium-term support.
  • Japan 225 Trend bias: Pushed pp within sideways range in progress. No change, maintain bullish bias above 21530 adjusted key short-term support (10 Apr 2018 Asian session low + minor ascending trendline from 24 Mar 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 22100 (minor swing high area of 13 Mar 2018) before the 22510 resistance (medium-term swing high area of 27 Apr 2018). However, a break below 21530  negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest the 21300 (the pull-back support of the former “Descending Wedge” resistance).
  • Hong Kong 50 - Trend bias: Push up within sideways range in progress. Inched higher as expected and hit the lower limit of the short-term resistance/target zone of 30850/31060 (printed a current intraday high of 30931 in today, 11 Apr Asian session. Maintain bullish bias with adjusted key short-term support now at 30400 (former minor swing high area of 09 Apr 2018 + minor ascending channel support from 04 Apr 2018) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 31460 (upper boundary of the aforementioned minor ascending channel + 1.00 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 04 Apr 2018 low to 09 Apr low projected from 09 Apr U.S. session low). On the other hand, a break below 30400 negates the bullish tone for a corrective pull-back to retest 30000/29950 (psychological level +  former swing low areas of 23 Mar/03 Apr 2018).
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range in progress. No change, maintain bullish bias above 5780 adjusted key short-term support (09 Apr low + minor ascending trendline from 04 Apr 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 5910 (former minor range support from 07/20 Mar 2018). However, a break below 5780 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 5750/46 (last Fri, 06 Apr U.S. session swing low area).  
  • Germany 30Trend bias: Push up within sideways range in progress.  No change, maintain bullish bias with key short-term support at 12200 (09 Apr U.S. session low) for a further potential push up to target the 12500/600 intermediate range resistance in place since 07 Apr 2018 high. On the other hand, a break below 12200 (an hourly close below it) negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the 12180/150 support (minor swing low area of 06 Apr + pull-back support of former minor descending resistance from 27 Feb 2018 high).

Commodities – Gold at risk of a minor setback within medium-term range configuration

  • Gold - Trend bias: Push down within sideways range. Inched higher but still holding below the 1345/48 key short-term resistance with a bearish divergence signal now being seen in the short-term hourly Stochastic oscillator that indicates a lack of upside momentum in the recent push up from  06 Apr 2018 low of 1319. In addition, the current rebound from 06 Apr low of 1319 has started to shape a bearish reversal minor “Ascending Wedge” configuration as seen in the hourly time frame with its lower boundary now at 1337. Maintain bearish bias below 1345/48 key short-term resistance with 1337 as the downside trigger level to reinforce a further potential push down to retest the 1310/1305 range support in place since 08 Feb 2018 low. On the other hand, a break above 1348 shall see a squeeze up to towards the 1365/78 major range resistance in place since Jul 2016.
  • WTI Crude (May 2018) – Trend bias: Risk of consolidation at medium-term range resistance. Pushed up as expected and it is now approaching the 66.40/66.66 medium-term range resistance in place since Jan 2018 (printed a high of 65.85 in yesterday, 10 Apr U.S. session). In addition, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has turned down from an extreme overbought level of 95% which highlights the risk of a pull-back/consolidation. Prefer to turn neutral now between 66.40/66.66 and 65.10. A break below 65.10 opens up scope for a pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 63.90/80 (former minor swing high areas of 04/05 Apr 2018).
*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform


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