Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Wed 26 Sep)

USD remains on support ahead of FOMC with stock indices remain below resistances

FX –  USD remains on support ahead of FOMC

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 1.1850 & 1.1685 (pull-back support of the recent bullish breakout from the neckline resistance of an Inverse Head & Shoulders that was formed from 21 Jun/10 Sep 2018 + former swing high area of 17 Sep 2018). Bulls need to see a break (an hourly close above 1.1850 for a further potential up move to target the next resistance at 1.1925/1960 (former medium-term range resistance from 20 Sep/04 Dec 2017 + Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster). On the flipside, failure to hold at 1.1685 shall put the on-going corrective rebound at risk for another potential dowleg phase to continue the primary downtrend in place since 16 Feb 2018 high of 1.2556 for a potential slide to retest the 1.1530 support in the first step (minor swing low areas of 04/10 Sep 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 15 Aug 2018 low to 24 Sep 2018 high)
  • GBP/USD - Trend bias: Down. The rebound in place since Mon, 24 Sep low of 1.3057 has almost reached the key short-term resistance of 1.3210 as per defined in our previous report (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 20 Sep 2018 high to 24 Sep 2018 low+ former minor swing high area of 19 Sep 2018). In addition, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has reached its overbought region with a bearish divergence signal seen in the 1 hour Stochastic oscillator).  Maintain bearish bias with 1.3210 as the key short-term resistance for a potential downleg to retest Mon, 24 Sep low of 1.3057 and a break below 1.3057 reinforces a further potential slide towards 1.2890 next (minor swing low areas of 24 Aug/05 Sep 2018). On the other hand, a clearance above 1.3210 invalidates the bearish scenario for squeeze up to retest 1.3300.
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Up. The pair has continued to inch higher since our last report. No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips with an adjusted key short-term support now at 112.60 (lower boundary of a minor ascending channel in place since 07 Sep 2018 low + former minor swing high area of 24 Sep 2018) for a further potential push up to target the intermediate resistances of 113.20 (swing high areas of 08 Jan/18 Jul 2018) and 113.60 (upper boundary of the aforementioned minor ascending channel + swing high areas of 12/21 Dec 2017). On the other hand, failure to hold above 112.60 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest 112.10 (pull-back support of the former range resistance that was broken out on 18 Sep 2018).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 0.7330 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the primary down move from 26 Jan 2018 high to 11 Sep 2018 low + close to the upper boundary of the descending channel from 26 Jan 2018 high + former range support from 02 Jul/09 Aug 2018) & 0.7220 (former minor swing high of 13 Sep 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 11 Sep 2018 low). Only a break (an hourly close) below 0.7220 may see the start of another downleg of the primary downtrend to target the next near-term support at 0.7140/7125 (minor swing low of 17 18 Sep + former minor swing high areas of 10/12 Sep 2018). On the flipside, a clearance above 0.7330 sees an extension of the corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.7485 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the primary down move from 26 Jan 2018 high to 11 Sep 2018 low + range resistance from 09 Jul/09 Aug 2018).
  • NZD/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 0.6730 & 0.6590 (former minor swing high of 14 Sep 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 11 Sep 2018 low). A break (an hourly close) below 0.6590  may see the start of another downleg of the primary downtrend to retest the next near-term support at 06535 follow by the 11 Sep 2018 low area of 0.6500. On the flipside, a clearance above 0.6730 sees an extension of the corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.6830/6860 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the primary down move from 16 Feb 2018 high to 11 Sep 2018 low + swing high areas of 09/26 Jul 2018).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Below resistances with mix elements

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Sideways. Maintain neutrality stance with adjusted range of 2928 (25 Sep 2018 minor swing high + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 21 Sep 2018 high to 24 Sep 2018 low) & 2910. A break (hourly close) below 2910 is likely to see a further slide to target the next near-term support at 2880 follow by 2860 (medium-term downside trigger). On the flipside, a break above 2928 sees a squeeze up to retest the key long-term pivotal resistance of 2940.
  • Japan 225 – Trend bias: Push down within range configuration. The 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has reached its overbought region with a bearish divergence signal which indicates a slowdown in the recent upside momentum of price action. 24025 key short-term resistance for a potential push down to target the near-term support of 23600 (20 Sep 2018 minor swing low + minor ascending trendline from 07 Sep 2018 low). However, a break above 24025 see a see a push up to probe the medium-term range resistance of 24200 (YTD swing high area formed on 23 Jan 2018 + Fibonacci projection cluster).
  • Hong Kong 50 – Trend bias: Down. Pushed up after yesterday, 25 Sep closure due to a public holiday in HK. Right now, it is backed at the 28000 key medium-term pivotal resistance (also the pull-back resistance of the former primary ascending trendline support from Feb 2016 low) with the 1 hour Stochastic oscillator that is approaching an extreme overbought level of 96. Maintain bearish bias below 28000 for a potential push down to retest 27500/400 (24 Sep 2018 minor swing low area + minor ascending trendline from 11 Sep 2018 low). However, a clearance above 28000 invalidates the bearish tone for a further corrective up move towards the next intermediate resistance at 28560/600 (swing high area of 27/30 Aug 2018).
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Sideways. Continued to churn within a minor “bearish flag” range configuration since 07 Sep 2018 low of 6100. Maintain neutrality stance between 6217 & 6160. A break (an hourly close) below 6160 (lower boundary of the “bearish flag) is likely to trigger a bearish breakdown for slide to retest the 07 Sep 2018 swing low area of 6100 in the first step. On the flipside, a clearance above 6211 sees a further squeeze up to towards the 6250 key medium-term pivotal resistance (pull-back resistance of the former “Expanding Wedge” range support & 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 30 Aug 2018 high to 07 Sep 2018 low.
  • Germany 30 – Trend bias: Sideways. Maintain neutrality stance with adjusted range of 12460 & 12340. Only a break (an hourly close) below 12340 (25 Sep 2018 swing low) is likely to trigger a slide to target the next near-term support at 12170/120 (former minor swing high area of 14 Sep 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 11Sep 2018 low). On the flipside, a break above 12460 sees a further push up to test the 12540 key medium-term pivotal resistance (pull-back resistance of the former primary ascending trendline support from Feb 2016 low).

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