Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Wed 20 Jun)

Further USD strength while USD/JPY is shaping a potential residual push down within is minor pull-back phase. Stock indices are still holding above respective supports.

FX –  Further USD strength except against JPY

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Down move in progress. The pair drifted down lower as expected and printed a fresh minor lower low of 1.1530 in yesterday, 19 Jun European session. No change, maintain bearish bias with an adjusted key short-term resistance now at 1.1640 (19 June 2018 minor swing high) for a further potential push down to target the lower limit of the key long-term support at 1.1470/50 (the former resistance of the major basing configuration from Mar 2015 to Mar 2017). On the other hand, a clearance above 1.1640 reinstates the mean reversion rebound scenario towards the next resistance at 1.1720/1735 ( former minor range support from 08/13 Jun 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent steep decline from 14 Jun 2018 high to 19 Jun 2018 low).
  • GBP/USD - Trend bias: Down move in progress. Broke down from the minor bearish “Pennant” continuation chart pattern as expected (refer to yesterday report) and printed a fresh minor lower low of 1.3150 in yesterday, 19 Jun European session. No signs of bearish exhaustion, maintain bearish bias with an adjusted key short-term resistance now at 1.3230 (former minor swing low areas of 15/18 Jun 2018 + minor descending trendline from 14 Jun 2018 minor swing high) for a further potential push down to target the next intermediate support at 1.3020/3000 (minor swing low areas of 05 Oct/03 Nov 2017 + psychological). On the other hand, a clearance above 1.3230 reinstates the mean reversion rebound scenario to test the next resistance at  1.3300/3330 (former minor swing low area of 13 Jun 2018).
  • AUD/USD - Trend bias: Down move in progress. Continued to inch down lower as expected and printed a fresh minor lower low of 0.7347 in yesterday, 19 Jun European session. No change, maintain bearish bias with adjusted key short-term resistance now at 0.7425 (19 Jun 2018 minor swing high + close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 12 Jun 2018 high to 19 Jun 2018 low) for a further potential push down to target the next intermediate support at 0.7330/7300 (09 May 2017 swing low area + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from Jan 2016 low to 26 Jan 2018 high). On the other hand, a clearance above 0.7425 reinstates the mean reversion rebound scenario towards the 0.7480/7500 resistance (former minor swing low area of 30 May 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 12 Jun 2018 high to 19 Jun 2018 low).
  • NZD/USD - Trend bias: Down move resumes in progress. Inched down lower as expected and met the first intermediate support/target of 0.6900. It printed a fresh minor lower low of 0.6885 in yesterday, 19 Jun European session. Maintain bearish bias below adjusted key short-term resistance now at 0.6925 (former minor swing low areas of 18/19 Jun 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 14 Jun high to 19 Jun 2018 low) for a further potential push down to target the 0.6820 medium-term range support in place since 08 May 2017. On the other hand, a clearance above 0.6925 reinstates the mean reversion rebound scenario towards the 0.6970/6990 resistance (former minor swing low area of 14 Jun 2018 + 50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 14 Jun high to 19 Jun 2018 low).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Residual push down of pull-back phase. Inched down lower as expected and met the first intermediate support/target of 109.60 (printed a low of 109.55 in yesterday, 19 Jun European session) before it stage a rebound to record an current intraday high of 110.06 in today, 20 Jun Asian session. No signs of bearish exhaustion yet, maintain bearish bias below 110.30 key short-term resistance (former minor swing low area of 18 Jun 2018 + minor descending trendline from 15 Jun 2018 high + former minor ascending trendline from 30 May 2018 low) for a potential residual push down to retest 109.55 before targeting the next support at 109.35/20 (lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 26 Mar 2018 low + minor swing low areas of 08/11 Jun 2018 + Fibonacci projection/retracement cluster) before a potential recovery materialise. However a clearance above 110.30 invalidates the pull-back scenario to see the start of a fresh upleg phase to target the recent 110.80/90 minor swing high areas of 14/15 Jun 2018 in the first step.

Stock Indices (CFD) – Holding above supports

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Up move in progress. Tested the 2740 key medium-term support as it printed an intraday low of 2732 in yesterday, 19 Jun European session before an hourly close back at 2740 as expected.  In addition, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has flashed a bullish divergence signal at its oversold region. These observation suggest that downside momentum of the recent pull-back of 2.10% from its 2791 high of 13 Jun 2018 has stated to abate where a potential new upleg phase may occur at this juncture. No change, maintain bullish bias as long as the 2740 key medium-term support holds (the lower boundary of the medium-term uptrend from 03 May 2018 low, the former minor range resistance from 14/25 May 2018 & close to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 03 May 2018 low to 13 Jun 2018 high) for a further potential push up to retest the 2770/73 intermediate resistance (18 Jun U.S. session high + minor descending trendline from 13 Jun 2018 high) and an hourly close above 2773 sees a further potential rally towards next intermediate resistance at 2800 in the first step (minor swing high areas of 12/13 Mar 2018). However, a daily close below 2740 invalidates the medium-term uptrend for a choppy corrective decline towards the next support at 2680 (close to the pull-back support of the former “Symmetrical Triangle” range resistance from 29 Jan 2018 high).
  • Japan 225 – Trend bias: : Up move in progress. Inched higher as expected. No change, maintain bullish bias above the 22000 key medium-term support (swing low area of 22000 + Fibonacci projection/retracement cluster) for a further potential push up to retest the 22500/600 intermediate resistance in the first step (former minor swing low areas of 08/18 Jun 2018). However, a daily close below 22000 invalidates the medium-term uptrend phase for a multi-week corrective decline to target the next support at 21360 in the first step (61.8%/76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 23 Mar low to 21 May 2018 high).
  • Hong Kong 50 – Trend bias: Push up within range configuration. Drifted down lower as expected and almost met the intermediate support/target of 29160 as it printed a low of 29267 in yesterday, 19 Jun Asian session. Right now, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has just exited from its oversold region which suggests that the downside momentum of the recent decline from 12 Jun 2018 minor swing high of 31271 is overstretched where a rebound in price action may occur at this juncture. Flip to a bullish bias with 29160 as the key short-term support (minor swing low of 04 Apr 2018) for a potential rebound to retest the 29900/30030 intermediate resistance (former minor range support from 18 Apr/30 May 2018 low + gap formed on 19 Jun 2018 Asian opening session). However, failure to hold at 29160 sees an extension of the slide towards the 29070 key medium-term range support of the 5-month range configuration in place since 10 Feb 2018.
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Up move resumes. The Index had shaped the minor pull-back as expected to print a low of 6085 in yesterday, 19 Jan late Asian session (coincides closely with the 6070 pull-back support of the  former minor range resistance from 07/11 Jun 2018  before it rebound back to retest the 6150 intermediate range resistance of 09 Jan/10 May 2018. No signs of bullish exhaustion and the daily RS oscillator has continued to inch higher with further potential upside before it reaches an extreme overbought level of 80. Flip back to a bullish bias in any dips with 6085/70 as the key short-term support and an hourly close above 6150 opens up scope for a further potential rally to target the next intermediate resistance at 6210 (Fibonacci projection cluster). On the other hand, failure to hold at 6070 reinstates a deeper pull-back scenario to retest 6000 (14 Jun 2018 minor swing low area) and even the 5980 key medium-term support (pull-back support of the former “Symmetrical Triangle” resistance from 09 Jan 2018 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 04 Apr low to 10 May 2018 high).
  • Germany 30 – Trend bias: Push up within range. Managed to hold the 12630 key medium-term support (the former 3-month range resistance of the “Bottoming” configuration from 07 Feb/24 Apr 2018 the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 26 Mar low to 22 May 2018 high) without a daily close below it (printed am intraday of 12592 in yesterday, 19 Jun European session). Flip to a bullish bias in any dips with 12630 as the key support for a further potential push up to target 12800 before 12900 (failure breakout level from 13 Jun 2018 minor swing high area). On the other hand, a daily close below 12630 opens up scope for a deeper corrective move towards the next support at 12300/200 200 (swing low area of 25 Apr 2018, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 26 Mar low to 22 May 2018 high & the primary ascending trendline in place since Feb 2016 low).

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform


  



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