Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Wed 13 Jun)

USD continues to show strength while up move remains intact in S&P 500 and Nikkei 225.

FX – USD continues to show strength with outperformance against JPY

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Sideways with bearish bias. Traded sideways within the short-term neutrality zone and ended yesterday, 12 Jun U.S. session with a daily close below the previous day (Mon, 11 Jun) bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick low of 1.1755. These observations indicate the lack of upside momentum. Maintain neutrality stance between 1.1725 and 1.1840. A break below 1.1725 (an hourly close below it) opens up scope for the continuation of the medium-term down move in place since Apr 2018 for a potential push down towards the next intermediate supports at 1.1650/1616 in the first step (the minor swing low areas of 01/05 Jun 2018 + 50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 29 May 2018 low to 07 Jun 2018 high) . On the other hand, a clearance above 1.1840 (an hourly close above it) reinstates the short-term bullish tone for a potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.1880/1940 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 16 Feb 2018 high to 29 May 2018 low + former minor swing low area of 09/10 Jan 2018 that was rejected on 14 May 2018 + also now the potential breakout target of the aforementioned minor “Ascending Triangle”).
  • GBP/USD – Trend bias: Sideways with risk of a deeper pull-back/retracement. Continued to trade in a tight range of 80 pips for 5th consecutive day since 06 Jun 2018. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 1.3480 and 1.3350 (adjusted to take into account of last Fri, 08 Jun intraday low). A break below 1.3350 (an hourly close below it) is likely to trigger the continuation of the medium-term down move in place since 17 Apr 2018 high towards the next intermediate supports at 1.3300 (minor swing low areas of 04/05 Jun 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 29 May 2018 low to 07 Jun high of 1.3472) follow by 1.3260 (minor swing low area of 01 Jun 2018) in the first step. On the flipside, a clearance above 1.3480 opens up scope for a further squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.3590/3650 (minor range resistance of 08/14 May 2018 +  38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 17 Apr 2018 high to 29 May low of 1.3205).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Deeper pull-back/retracement remains in progress. Inched down lower as expected in yesterday, 12 Jun U.S. session to retest the previous day (Mon, 11 Jun) “Spinning Top” candlestick low of 0.7575. These observations suggest a built-up of downside momentum of price action. No change, maintain bearish bias with an adjusted key short-term resistance now at 0.7620 (the recent minor range top formed on 11/12 Jun 2018) for a further potential push down to target the next intermediate support at 0.7515 (the minor swing low of 01 Jun 2018 & the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 09 May 2018 low). A break below 0.7515 shall see the continuation of the medium-term down move in place since 14 Mar 2018 high for a further potential decline to retest the 09 May 2018 swing low area of 0.7450/0.7410. However, a clearance above 0.7620 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest 0.7675/7690 key medium-term resistance (the pull-back resistance of the former major bearish “Ascending Wedge” support from Jan 2016 + the former medium-term swing low area of 20 Mar 2018).
  • NZD/USD - Trend bias: Sideways with a bearish bias. Continued to trade sideways within the short-term neutrality zone with signs of weakness that continued to emerge. The pair had ended yesterday, 12 Jun U.S. session with a daily close below the previous day (Mon, 11 Jun)  bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick low of 0.7015. Maintain neutrality stance between 0.7060 (former minor swing high area of 04 May 2018 + Fibonacci projection/retracement cluster) and 0.7000 (05 Jun 2018 minor swing low).  A break below  0.7000 opens up scope for a decline towards the next intermediate support of 0.6960 (the former minor swing low area of 01 Jun 2018) and below exposes the next support of 0.6900 (psychological + minor ascending trendline from 15 May 2018/the start of the current short-term rebound). On the flipside, a clearance (an hourly close) above 0.7060 triggers a potential squeeze up to retest a significant medium-term resistance at 0.7190 (the former range support from 08 Feb/20 Mar 2018 before the recent bearish breakdown that led to a decline of 330 pips + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 13 Apr 2018 high to 16 May 2018 low).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Up move remains intact. Pushed up as expected and cleared above yesterday, 12 Jun minor swing high area of 110.50. No signs of bullish exhaustion, maintain bullish bias in any dips with an adjusted key short-term support now at 110.10 (yesterday, 12 Jun low + minor ascending trendline from 08 Jun 2018 low) for a further potential up move to target 111.00 (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel support from 30 May 2018 low + psychological level) follow by the 111.40/60 intermediate resistance in the first step (minor swing high area of 21 May 2018 + median line of the aforementioned medium-term ascending channel + Fibonacci projection cluster). On the other hand, a break below 110.10 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 109.60 (former minor swing of 08 Jun 2018 + lower boundary of the minor ascending channel support from 30 May 2018 low).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Up move remains intact for S&P 500 & Nikkei 225

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Up move remains in progress. Traded sideways as it is trying to break above 11 Jun 2018 minor swing high of 2790. No signs of bullish exhaustion and higher beta indices managed to outperform the S&P 500 in yesterday, 12 Jun U.S. session. The Nasdaq 100 (up by 0.57%), NYSE FANG+ Index (up by 1.30%), Russell 2000 (up by 0.46%) versus a gain of 0.17% seen in the S&P 500.  Maintain bullish bias in any dips above adjusted key short-term support at 2778/75 (former minor swing high area of 07 Jun 2018 + lower boundary of a minor ascending channel from 29 May 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistances at 2800 (minor swing high areas of 12/13 Mar 2018) follow by 2815 next (lower upper boundary of a minor ascending channel from 29 May 2018 low + Fibonacci projection cluster). However, failure to hold at 2778/75 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards 2765/52 (the minor swing low of 08 Jun 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 29 May 2018 low to 11 Jun 2018 high of 2790).
  • Japan 225 – Trend bias: Up move remains in progress. Maintain bullish bias with adjusted key short-term support now at 22790/760 (yesterday, 12 Jun low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 29 May 2018 U.S. session low to 12 Jun 2018 high) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 23150/200 in the first step (upper boundary of minor ascending channel from 31 May 2018 low + 0.618 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 29 May 2018 low to 07 Jun 2018 high projected from 08 Jun 2018 low). On the other hand, a break below 22790/760 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest 22550/450 support (the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 23 Mar 2018 low + minor swing low area of 08 Jun 2018).
  • Hong Kong 50 – Trend bias: Sideways. Continued to churn within a sideways range. Maintain neutrality stance between 30800 (former minor swing high areas of 24/28 May 2018) and 31400 (former minor swing low of 07 Jun 2018 + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 07 June 2018 high of 31551 to 8 Jun 2018 low of 30799). Only a break above 31400 (an hourly close above it) is likely to reinstate the bulls for a potential push up to target the 31800 key medium-term range resistance in place since 27 Feb 2018. On the flipside, a break below 30800 sees another round of choppy decline to retest the next intermediate support at 30550/430 (minor swing low area of 31 May 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior push up from 30 May 2018 low to 07 Jun 2018 high of 31551).
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Sideways. The Index broke below the 6030 short-term support in today, 13 Jun Asian session led by underperformance seen in the Energy & Materials sectors (down by -1.10% & -1.12% respectively).  The Index is inching down to retest the 5980 key medium-term support (pull-back support of the former “Symmetrical Triangle” resistance from 09 Jan 2018 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 04 Apr low to 10 May 2018 high) with mix elements at this juncture. Prefer to turn neutral first between 6060 (today, 13 Jun Asian session current intraday high) and 5980. Only an hourly close above 6060 reinstates the bullish tone for a push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 6087 (minor congestion area from 07 May/21 May 2018 + 61.8%/76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 15 May high to 29 May 2018 U.S. session low of 5943) in the first step.
  • Germany 30 – Trend bias: Push up within range remains in progress. No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips above the adjusted key short-term support now at 12750 (minor swing low area of 11 Jun 2018) for a further potential push up to retest 12900 (the recent minor range resistance from 05/07 Jun 2018) follow by the next range resistance at 13000/13040 (minor swing high areas of 24/25/28 May 2018). However, failure to hold at 12750 sees another round of choppy slide to retest the 12630 key medium-term support (the former 3-month range resistance of the “Bottoming” configuration from 07 Feb/24 Apr 2018 + the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 26 Mar 2018 low to 22 May 2018 high).

 *Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform



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