Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Tues 02 Oct)

USD uptrend remains intact. Nikkei 225 on sight for further potential upside supported by a bullish USD/JPY

FX –  USD uptrend remains intact

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Down. Continued to push down as expected to print a low of 1.1564 in yesterday, 01 Oct U.S. session which was closed to the near-term support/target of 1.1530 (minor swing low areas of 04/10 Sep 2018). No clear signs of bearish exhaustion, maintain bearish bias in any bounces below tightened key short-term resistance at 1.1630 (minor swing high areas of 29 Sep/01 Oct 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from post FOMC 26 Sep 2018 high of 1.1798 to yesterday, 01 Oct low of 1.1564) for further potential push down towards 1.1530 and a break below it is likely to trigger a further potential downward acceleration to retest the major support at 1.1445/1410 (the major pull-back range support from May 2015/Jul 2017 of a 2-year range configuration that was challenged but held recently on the week of 13/17 Aug 2018). However, a clearance above 1.1630 negates the bearish tone for a deeper corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.1730 (former minor range support of 21/26 Sep 2018).
  • GBP/USD – Trend bias: Down. Yesterday, 01 Oct push up seen during the start of the U.S. session was stalled right at the predefined tightened key short-term resistance of 1.3110 as per highlighted in our previous report. No change, maintain bearish bias below 1.3110 key short-term resistance for a further potential push down to target the next near-term support at 1.2890 next (minor swing low areas of 24 Aug/05 Sep 2018). A break below 1.2890 is likely to trigger a further potential downward acceleration towards 1.2810/2790 (the minor swing low areas of 24 Aug/05 Sep 2018 + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 15 Aug 2018 low to 20 Sep 2018 high). However, a clearance above 1.3110 negates the bearish tone for a deeper corrective rebound towards the intermediate resistance at 1.3210/3220 (minor swing high area of 26 Sep 2018).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Up. No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips above tightened key short-term support now at 113.60 (former minor swing high area of 28 Sep 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 27 Sep 2018 low to yesterday, 01 Oct high of 114.05) for a further potential push up to target the next resistance at 114.10/30 (Fibonacci projection cluster + major range resistance from 09 May /03 Nov 2017). However, failure to hold at 113.60 sees a deeper pull-back to retest the 113.00/112.80 support (former minor swing high areas of 25/26 Sep 2018 + lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 07 Sep 2018).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Down. No change, maintain bearish  bias in any bounces below 0.7260 key short-term resistance for another potential downleg to target the next near-term support at 0.7140/7125. However, a clearance above 0.7260 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest 0.7330 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the primary down move from 26 Jan 2018 high to 11 Sep 2018 low + close to the upper boundary of the medium-term descending channel from 26 Jan 2018 high + former range support from 02 Jul/09 Aug 2018).
  • NZD/USD – Trend bias: Down.  No change, maintain bearish bias in any bounces below 0.6650 key short-term resistance for another potential downleg towards 06535 follow by the 11 Sep 2018 low area of 0.6500. However, a clearance above 0.6650 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest 0.6700/6720 (minor range resistances of 21 Sep 2018 & 22/29 Aug 2018).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Mix bag with further potential upside in Nikkei 225

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Sideways. The Index breached above the 2927/31 key short-term resistance but its earlier gains seen in the U.S. session was almost wiped right below the 2940 key long-term pivotal resistance (refer to latest weekly technical outlook) as it printed a high of 2937 and ended yesterday’s U.S. session with a daily “Spinning Top” candlestick pattern, another sign of indecisiveness from the bulls. Mix elements due to mix short-term signals seen from the top 3 weightage stocks of the S&P 500 (Apple, Amazon & Microsoft). Thus, prefer to turn neutral first in the short-term between 2940 and 2918 (the former minor swing high area of 28 Sep 2018 + minor pull-back support of the former descending trendline resistance from 21 Sep 2018 high). Only a break with an hourly close below 2918 validates a potential slide to retest 2902/2900 minor swing low area of 27 Sep 2018. On the flipside, a clearance above 2940 sees a further potential push up to target 2951/55 next (minor ascending channel resistance from 28 Sep 2018 + Fibonacci projection cluster).           
  • Japan 225 – Trend bias: Up. A daily close above the 24200 key medium-term range resistance (swing high of 23 Jan 2018 which is also a 26-year high since Oct 1991) has validated a further potential up move at least from a multi-week perspective reinforced by a bullish USD/JPY. Turn bullish in any dips above 24100 (minor congestion area of 28 Sep 2018 + lower boundary of the minor ascending channel in place since 07 Sep 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 24660 (minor ascending channel resistance from recent 27 Sep 2018 low + Fibonacci projection cluster). On the other hand, a violation below 24100 invalidates the bullish break above from 24200 for a slide back towards 23740/580 (minor swing low areas of 20/27 Sep 2018).
  • Hong Kong 50 – Trend bias: Down. Broke below the lower limit of the 27400 neutrality zone as per highlighted in our previous report. Down move validated, turn bearish in any bounces below 27660 key short-term resistance (former minor swing low areas of 27/28 Sep 2018 + pull-back resistance of the former minor ascending trendline support from 11 Sep 2018 low) for a further potential push down to target the next near-term support at 26730 next (the minor swing low areas of 17/18 Sep 2018 + close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rebound from 11 Sep 2018 low to 26 Sep 2018 high) in the first step. On the other hand, a break above 27660 put the bears on hold again for a test on the 28000 key medium-term pivotal resistance (refer to latest weekly technical outlook).
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Down. Bearish breakdown from the minor “bearish flag” ascending range configuration in place since 07 Sep 2018 low with an hourly close below its support at 6170. Further potential down move validated. Bearish bias in any bounces below 6165 (the former bearish flag support + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going slide from 01 Oct U.S. session high of 6192 to today, 02 Oct current Asian session intraday low of 6118) for a further potential push down next to retest the 06 Sep 2018 swing low area of 6100. A break below 6100 opens up scope to target the key major support zone of 6020/5980 (Fibonacci projection cluster + primary ascending channel support from 10 Feb 2016 low).  On the other hand, a clearance above 6165 invalidates the bearish breakdown for another round of choppy up move to retest 6192/6196 (minor swing highs of 28 Sep/01 Oct 2018).
  • Germany 30 – Trend bias: Down.  Yesterday’s push up of 1.55% from last Fri, 28 Sep low of 12188 to yesterday, 01 Oct high of 12375 has managed to stall at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 27 Sep 2018 high of 12460 to 28 Sep 2018 low coupled with a bearish divergence seen in the 1-hour Stochastic oscillator at its overbought region. Thus, no conviction of yesterday’s up move to print higher highs. Tolerate the excess and maintain bearish bias below 12375 key short-term resistance for a further potential push down to retest last Fri low at 12188 and even 12120/12090 next (former minor swing high area of 14 Sep 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rebound from 11 Sep 2018 low to 27 Sep 2018 high). On the other hand, a break above 12375 negates the bearish tone for another round of choppy up move to retest the minor range resistance of 12460 in place since 21 Sep 2018.

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