Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 27 Sep)

FX –  USD on support and watch EUR/USD downside trigger at 1.1685

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 1.1850 & 1.1685 (pull-back support of the recent bullish breakout from the neckline resistance of an Inverse Head & Shoulders that was formed from 21 Jun/10 Sep 2018 + former swing high area of 17 Sep 2018) with Germany preliminary CPI data for Sep out later at 1200 GMT (2.0% y/y consensus, 1.9% y/y recorded in Aug). Bears need to have a break (an hourly close) below 1.1685 to trigger another potential downleg phase to retest the 1.1530 support in the first step (minor swing low areas of 04/10 Sep 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 15 Aug 2018 low to 24 Sep 2018 high). On the other hand, a clearance above 1.1850 sees an extension of the corrective up move to target the next resistance at 1.1925/1960 (former medium-term range resistance from 20 Sep/04 Dec 2017 + Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster).
  • GBP/USD - Trend bias: Down.  The push up seen right after yesterday, 26 Sep FOMC announcement tested the 1.3210 key short-term resistance (printed an intraday high of 1.3218 but failed to have an hourly close above 1.3210. In addition, it has formed a daily “Spinning Top” candlestick pattern after yesterday’s NY close which indicates indecisiveness by the bulls to push prices higher. No change, maintain bearish bias below 1.3210/3218 key short-term resistance for a potential downleg to retest Mon, 24 Sep low of 1.3057 and a break below 1.3057 reinforces a further potential slide towards 1.2890 next (minor swing low areas of 24 Aug/05 Sep 2018). On the other hand, a clearance above 1.3210 invalidates the bearish scenario for squeeze up to retest 1.3300.
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Up.  Pushed up as expected and printed a high of 113.13 right after the FOMC announcement before it staged a pull-back to test the 112.60 predefined adjusted key short-term support as per highlighted in our previous report and rebounded thereafter. No change, maintain bullish bias with 112.60 remains as the key short-term support for another round of potential upleg to target the intermediate resistances of 113.20 (swing high areas of 08 Jan/18 Jul 2018) and 113.60 (upper boundary of the aforementioned minor ascending channel + swing high areas of 12/21 Dec 2017). On the other hand, failure to hold above 112.60 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest 112.10 (pull-back support of the former range resistance that was broken out on 18 Sep 2018).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Sideways with risk of downside breakdown. The pair failed to break above the 0.7330 upper limit of the neutrality range (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the primary down move from 26 Jan 2018 high to 11 Sep 2018 low + close to the upper boundary of the descending channel from 26 Jan 2018 high + former range support from 02 Jul/09 Aug 2018) and ended yesterday, 26 Sep NY session with a bearish daily “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern. Maintain neutrality stance between 0.7330 & 0.7220. Only a break (an hourly close) below 0.7220 may see the start of another downleg of the primary downtrend to target the next near-term support at 0.7140/7125 (minor swing low of 17 18 Sep + former minor swing high areas of 10/12 Sep 2018). On the flipside, a clearance above 0.7330 sees an extension of the corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.7485 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the primary down move from 26 Jan 2018 high to 11 Sep 2018 low + range resistance from 09 Jul/09 Aug 2018).
  • NZD/USD – Trend bias: Sideways with risk of downside breakdown. Ended yesterday, 26 Sep NY session with a bearish daily “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern. Maintain neutrality stance with adjusted tighter range between 0.6730 & 0.6630 (minor ascending trendline from 12 Sep 2018 low + minor swing low areas of 24/25 Sep 2018). A break (an hourly close) below 0.6630 is likely to trigger a the start of another downleg to retest 06535 follow by the 11 Sep 2018 low area of 0.6500. On the flipside, a clearance above 0.6730 sees an extension of the corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.6830/6860 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the primary down move from 16 Feb 2018 high to 11 Sep 2018 low + swing high areas of 09/26 Jul 2018).

Stock Indices (CFD) –  S&P 500 bearish breakdown from minor range configuration

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Down. Broke below 2910 lower limit of the short-term/minor neutrality range in the last hour of yesterday, 26 Sep U.S. session. Turn bearish with 2917 as key short-term resistance (50% Fibonacci retracement of the yesterday, 26 Sep post FOMC slide from 2931 high to 2902 low) for a further potential decline to target the next near-term support at 2880 follow by 2860 (medium-term downside trigger). However, a clearance above 2917 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest 2931 (yesterday’s high + minor descending trendline from 21 Sep 2018).
  • Japan 225 – Trend bias: Push down within range configuration. Tolerate the excess to 24100 for a further potential push down to target the near-term support at 23600 (20 Sep 2018 minor swing low + minor ascending trendline from 07 Sep 2018 low). A break (an hourly close) below 23600 shall trigger a further potential slide to test the medium-term range support of 23125/23000 (also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 07 Sep 2018 low to today, 27 Sep Asian session current intraday high of 24100). However, a break above 24100 sees a further push up to test the 24200 medium-term range resistance.
  • Hong Kong 50 – Trend bias: Down. Yesterday’s 26 Sep push up in price action to test the 28000 key medium-term pivotal resistance has flashed a bearish divergence signal at the overbought region of the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator. No change, maintain bearish bias for a potential slide to retest 27500/400 (24 Sep 2018 minor swing low area + minor ascending trendline from 11 Sep 2018 low) and a break (an hourly close) below 27400 shall trigger the start of a potential downleg to target 26730 near-term support (the minor swing low areas of 17/18 Sep 2018) in the first step.
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Sideways. Continued to churn within a minor “bearish flag” range configuration since 07 Sep 2018 low of 6100. Maintain neutrality stance between 6217 & 6160. Bears need a break (an hourly close) below 6160 (lower boundary of the “bearish flag) is likely to trigger a bearish breakdown for slide to retest the 07 Sep 2018 swing low area of 6100 in the first step. On the flipside, a clearance above 6211 sees a further squeeze up to towards the 6250 key medium-term pivotal resistance (pull-back resistance of the former “Expanding Wedge” range support & 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 30 Aug 2018 high to 07 Sep 2018 low.
  • Germany 30 – Trend bias: Sideways with risk of downside breakout. Price action has started to trace “lower highs” below the upper limit of the minor neutrality range. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 12460 & 12340. Only a break (an hourly close) below 12340 (25 Sep 2018 swing low) is likely to trigger a slide to target the next near-term support at 12170/120 (former minor swing high area of 14 Sep 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 11Sep 2018 low). On the flipside, a break above 12460 sees a further push up to test the 12540 key medium-term pivotal resistance (pull-back resistance of the former primary ascending trendline support from Feb 2016 low).

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