Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 21 Jun)

USD strength remains intact with USD/JPY undergoing a new potential upleg. S&P 500 remains in a bullish configuration with ASX 200 bullish breakout above 6150 former range resistance.

FX –  USD strength remains intact with USD/JPY resuming its upleg

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Down move in progress. Traded sideways within 60 pips below the adjusted 1.1640 key short-term resistance as per highlighted in yesterday’s report. Current price action has consolidated to form an impending minor bearish “Pennant” continuation chart pattern that highlights a potential imminent bearish breakdown scenario. Maintain bearish bias with an adjusted key short-term resistance now at  1.1605 (the pull-back resistance of the former minor ascending trendline from 15 Jun 2018 low + “Pennant” range top) for a further potential push down to target the lower limit of the key long-term support at 1.1470/50 (the former resistance of the major basing configuration from Mar 2015 to Mar 2017). However, a break above 1.1605 negative the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the 19 June 2018 minor swing high area of 1.1640 and only a clearance above it reinstates the mean reversion rebound scenario towards the next resistance at 1.1720/1735 ( former minor range support from 08/13 Jun 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent steep decline from 14 Jun 2018 high to 19 Jun 2018 low).
  • GBP/USD - Trend bias: Down move in progress. Yesterday’s push up seen in the early U.S. session stalled right below the 1.3230 predefined key short-term resistance (refer to yesterday report) before it retreated to hover just above yesterday, 20 Jun European session low of 1.3146. No change, maintain bearish bias with adjusted key short-term resistance now at 1.3220 (close to yesterday, U.S. session high) for a further potential push down to target the next intermediate support at 1.3020/3000 (minor swing low areas of 05 Oct/03 Nov 2017 + psychological). However, a clearance above 1.3220 reinstates the mean reversion rebound scenario to retest the next intermediate resistance at 1.3300/3330 (former minor swing low area of 13 Jun 2018).
  • AUD/USD - Trend bias: Down move in progress. Yesterday’s Asian session push up stalled below the 0.7425 predefined short-term resistance as expected (refer to yesterday report) as it printed an intraday high of 0.7408. No change, maintain bearish bias below adjusted key short-term resistance now at 0.7410 (close to yesterday, 20 Jun minor swing high) for a potential residual push down to target next intermediate support at 0.7330/7300 (09 May 2017 swing low area + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from Jan 2016 low to 26 Jan 2018 high) before risk of  a minor consolidation phase materialises as the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator is coming close to an extreme oversold level of 6. However, a clearance above 0.7410 reinstates the mean reversion rebound scenario towards the 0.7480/7500 resistance (former minor swing low area of 30 May 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 12 Jun 2018 high to 19 Jun 2018 low).
  • NZD/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. Pushed down as expected and almost met the support/target of 0.6820 (printed a current intraday low of 0.6832 in today, 21 Jun Asian session). Right now, it is just hovering above a key medium-term range support zone of 0.6820/0.6780 that has managed to stall previous declines since 11 May 2017  coupled with the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator that is coming close to an extreme oversold level of 8. Therefore prefer to turn neutral now between 0.6780 and 0.6890 (former minor swing low area of 19 Jun 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 14 Jun 2018 minor swing high to today, 21 Jun Asian session current intraday low of 0.6832. An hourly close above 0.6890 sees a mean reversion rebound scenario to retest the 0.6970/6990 intermediate resistance (former minor swing low area of 14 Jun 2018). On the flipside, failure to hold at 0.6780 opens up scope for a further potential waterfall slide to target the next intermediate support at 0.6675 (swing low area of 30 May 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from Aug 2015 low to July 2017 high) in the first step.
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Up move resumes. Broke above the 110.30 key short-term resistance as per highlighted in yesterday report that invalidated the “residual push down scenario”. Flip back to a bullish bias in any dips above 109.90 key short-term support (the minor swing low area of 20 Jun 2018 & close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going recovery from 19 Jun 2018 low of 109.53 to today, 21 Jun Asian session current intraday high of 110.66) for a further potential push up to retest the recent minor range resistance at 110.80/90 before targeting the 111.40/60 significant short-term/intermediate resistance zone (the minor swing high area of 21 May 2018, upper boundary of the short-term ascending channel in place since 19 Jun 2018 low, the median line of the medium-term ascending channel from 26 Mar 2018 low). However, failure to hold at 109.90 reinstates the deeper pull-back scenario for a further slide towards the he key medium-term support at 109.55/25 (lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel in place since 26 Mar 2018 low, minor swing low area of 08 Jun 2018 & Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster).

Stock Indices (CFD) – S&P 500 shaping a new potential upleg wth bullish breakout in ASX 200

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Up move in progress. Pushed up as expected and hit the first 2770/73 intermediate resistance/target in yesterday, 20 Jun U.S. session. Another positive element is higher beta indices/sector are leading this on-going up move where the Nasdaq 100 (+0.73%), NYSE FANG+ (+1.48%), U.S. Semiconductor Sector (+0.50%) Russell 2000 (+0.80%) outperformed the S&P 500 (+0.17%) in yesterday, 20 Jun U.S. session. Positive momentum follow through in today, 21 Jun Asian session where the SP 500 Index staged a bullish breakout with an hourly close above 2770/73 (18 Jun U.S. session high + minor descending trendline from 13 Jun 2018 high). Maintain bullish bias with an adjusted key short-term support now at 2763 (the former minor swing high area of 19 Jun 2018 that has managed to hold yesterday, 20 Jun U.S. session low + close to the pull-back support of the former minor ascending trendline resistance from 13 Jun 2018 high) for a  further potential upleg to target the next intermediate resistance at 2800 in the first step (minor swing high areas of 12/13 Mar 2018).  On the other hand, failure to hold at 2763 sees a failure bullish breakout a choppy slide to retest the 2740 ley medium-term support (the lower boundary of the medium-term uptrend from 03 May 2018 low, the former minor range resistance from 14/25 May 2018 & close to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 03 May 2018 low to 13 Jun 2018 high).
  • Japan 225 – Trend bias: Up move in progress. Pushed up as expected and hit the 22500/600 intermediate resistance/target (refer to yesterday report). Short-term momentum remains positive with the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator still has room for further potential upside before it reaches an extreme overbought level of 97. Maintain bullish bias in any dips with an adjusted key short-term support now at 22550 (former minor swing high are 20 Jun 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 19 Jun 2018 low) for a further potential upleg to retest recent range resistance of 23020 seen on 22 May/11 Jun 2018. On the other hand, a break below 22550 negates the bullish tone for a slide to rest 19 Jun 2018 low area of 22120.
  • Hong Kong 50 – Trend bias: Sideways. Pushed up as expected and hit the minor range resistance/target of 29900/30030 former minor range support from 18 Apr/30 May 2018 low + gap formed on 19 Jun 2018 Asian opening session). Mix elements now, prefer to turn neutral between 30030 and 29160 ((minor swing low of 04 Apr 2018). An hourly close below 29160 sees a further slide to retest the 29070 key medium-term range support of the 5-month range configuration in place since 10 Feb 2018. On the flipside, a clearance above 30030 opens up scope for a further push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 30400 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going slide from 07 Jun 2018 high to 19 Jun 2018 low + minor descending trendline from 07 Jun 2018 high).  
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Up move in progress. Bullish breakout as expected from the 6150 range resistance from 09 Jan/10 May 2018 and hit the 6210 intermediate resistance/target. No signs of bullish exhaustion yet, maintain bullish bias in any dips above an adjusted key short-term support now at 6160 (former minor swing high area of 18 Jun 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 14 Jun 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next resistances at 6270/80 (Fibonacci projection cluster) follow by 6350 (upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel in place since 04 Apr 2018 low + Fibonacci projection cluster).
  • Germany 30 – Trend bias: Push up within range. No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips above the 12630 key medium-term support for a further potential push up to target 12800 before 12900 (failure breakout level from 13 Jun 2018 minor swing high area). On the other hand, a daily close below 12630 opens up scope for a deeper corrective move towards the next support at 12300/200 200 (swing low area of 25 Apr 2018, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 26 Mar low to 22 May 2018 high & the primary ascending trendline in place since Feb 2016 low).

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform




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