Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 07 Jun)

Recent USD weakness seen in EUR, GBP & AUD at risk of a pause/consolidation. S&P 500 is coming close to a short-term inflexion zone where a minor pull-back/consolation may materialise.

FX –  Recent USD weakness seen in EUR, GBP & AUD at risk of a pause/consolidation

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Residual push up before risk of consolidation. Continued its upward movement as expected and met the first intermediate resistance/target of 1.1760 (former minor swing low areas of 21 Nov/12 Dec 2017) where it printed a high of 1.1795 in yesterday, 06 Jun U.S. session. Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggests the on-going short-term corrective up move from 30 May 2018 low of 1.1518 is coming towards a potential end point where the recent up move may shape a retracement/pull-back. Maintain bullish bias with a tightened key short-term support now at 1.1737 (the pull-back support of the minor “Ascending Triangle range resistance from 31 May 2018 high) for a potential residual push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.1880/1940 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 16 Feb 2018 high to 29 May 2018 low + former minor swing low area of 09/10 Jan 2018 that was rejected on 14 May 2018 + also now the potential breakout target of the aforementioned minor “Ascending Triangle”). However, failure to hold at 1.1737 is likely to see the start of a retracement/pull-back towards the next support at 1.1650/1616 (the minor swing low areas of 01/05 Jun 2018 + 50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 30 May to today, Asian session current intraday high of 1.18000).
  • GBP/USD – Trend bias: Residual push up remains in progress. No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips with a tightened adjusted key short-term support now at 1.3360 (close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 29 May 2018 low to yesterday, 06 Jun high of 1.3443 + lower boundary of a minor ascending range configuration in place since 29 May 2018 low) for a potential residual push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.3480 (former minor range congestion support from 04/18 May 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going down move from 17 Apr 2018 high to 29 May low of 1.3205) before risk of a retracement/pull-back (refer to yesterday report). On the flipside, a break below 1.3360 opens up scope for a pull-back/retracement towards the 1.3250/40 support (swing low areas of 29 May/01 Jun 2018 + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 29 May 2018 low to yesterday, 06 Jun high of 1.3443).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: At risk of a setback. Inched higher but it did not break above the upper limit of the predefined key resistance zone at 0.7690 (refer to yesterday report). Right now, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has shaped a bearish divergence signal at its overbought region which indicates that upside momentum has started to abate. Maintain bearish bias below 0.7690 key resistance for a potential push down to retest 0.7585 and a break below 0.7585 (an hourly close below it) opens up scope for a further potential decline to target the next intermediate support at 0.7515 (the minor swing low of 01 Jun 2018 & the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 09 May 2018 low). On the other hand, a clearance above 0.7690 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further squeeze up towards the next resistance at 0.7800 (medium-term swing high of 13/19 Apr 2018 & close to 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire down move from 26 Jan 2018 high to  09 May 2018 low).
  • NZD/USD - Trend bias: Sideways. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 0.7060 (former minor swing high area of 04 May 2018 + Fibonacci projection/retracement cluster) and 0.7000 (05 Jun 2018 minor swing low). A clearance (an hourly close) above 0.7060 triggers a potential squeeze up to retest a significant medium-term resistance at 0.7190 (the former range support from 08 Feb/20 Mar 2018 before the recent bearish breakdown that led to a decline of 330 pips + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 13 Apr 2018 high to 16 May 2018 low). On the flipside, failure to hold at 0.7000 opens up scope for a decline towards the next intermediate support of 0.6960 (the former minor swing low area of 01 Jun 2018) and below exposes the next support of 0.6900 (psychological + minor ascending trendline from 15 May 2018/the start of the current short-term rebound).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Residual push up before risk of consolidation. Inched up higher as expected and hit the first intermediate resistance/target zone at 110.10/30 (printed a high of 110.26 in yesterday, 06 Jun U.S. session). Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggests that the on-going short-term uptrend  in place since 30 May 2018 low of 108.11 is coming close to an end point of a minor bullish impulsive upleg cycle. In addition, short-term upside momentum has started to wane as the 4 hour Stochastic has flashed a bearish divergence signal at its overbought region. Maintain the bullish bias with a tightened adjusted key short-term support now at 109.75 (the median line of the minor ascending channel in place since 30 May 2018 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 30 May 2018 ow to yesterday, 06 Jun high of 110.26) for a potential residual push up to target the 110.60 resistance (upper boundary of the aforementioned minor ascending channel + Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster). On the other hand, failure to hold at 109.75 triggers the start of a minor corrective decline to retrace the short-term uptrend from 30 May 2018 low with next support coning in at 109.50/40 (the minor swing low areas of 02/06 Jun 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 30 May 2018 ow to yesterday, 06 Jun high of 110.26).

Stock Indices (CFD) – S&P 500 at risk of shaping a pull-back within medium-term uptrend

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Residual push up before risk of consolidation. Continued to push higher as expected and surpassed the first intermediate resistance/target of 2760/65 (printed a high of 2774 in yesterday, 06 Jun U.S. session. The 4 hour Stochastic oscillator is now at an extreme overbought level of 93 which suggests the recent up move from 01 Jun 2018 minor low of 2700 is “overstretched”. Maintain bullish bias in any dips with a tightened adjusted key short-term support now at 2760/57 (the former minor swing high areas of 15/17 Mar 2018 that was surpassed yesterday + lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 30 May 2018 low) for a potential residual push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 2785/90 before risk of pull-back/retracement (the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel from 30 May 2018 low + Fibonacci projection cluster). On the other hand, failure to hold at 2760/57 shall see the start of the pull-back/retracement towards the 2740/30 support (former minor range resistance from 14/25 May 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire on-going up move from 03 May 2018 low to yesterday, 06 Jun high of 2774).
  • Japan 225 – Trend bias: Residual push up before risk of consolidation. Rallied as expected and surpassed the intermediate resistance/target of 22730 (refer to yesterday report). No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips with adjusted key short-term support now at 22630 (the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel support from 31 May 2018 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire up move from 30 May 2018 low to today, 07 Jun Asian session current intraday high of 22850) for a potential residual push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 23000/23020 (psychological + swing high areas of 21/22 May 2018 + upper boundary of the minor ascending channel support from 31 May 2018 low + Fibonacci projection cluster) before risk of a pull-back/consolidation as the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has reached an extreme overbought level of 96. However, a break below 22630 triggers the start of the pull-back towards the 22450/380 support (06 Jun 2018 minor swing low + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire up move from 30 May 2018 low to today, 07 Jun Asian session current intraday high of 22850).
  • Hong Kong 50 – Trend bias: Residual push up towards medium-term range resistance. Inched higher as expected and met the first intermediate resistance/target of 31500. No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips with adjusted key short-term support now at 31150 (pull-back support of the former minor descending resistance from 15 May 2018 high + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 30 May 2018 low to today, 07 Jun Asian session current intraday high of 31525) for a potential residual push up to target 31800 (the key medium-term range resistance in place since 27 Feb 2018) before risk of a pull-back/retracement as the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has reached an extreme overbought level of 96. On the other hand, failure to hold at 31150 shall see a pull-back to retest 30900/660 support zone (minor swing low area of 04/05 Jun 2018 + 38.2%/50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 30 May 2018 low to today, 07 Jun Asian session current intraday high of 31525).
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Up move resumes. The Index has finally staged a bullish breakout above the 6036 upper limit of the short-term neutrality range (2-week minor range top in place since 31 May 2018). Flip back to a bullish bias in any dips with key short-term support now at 6030 (the pull-back support of the aforementioned former minor range top) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 6087 (minor congestion area from 07 May/21 May 2018 + 61.8%/76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 15 May high to 29 May 2018 U.S. session low of 5943) and a break above 6087 opens up scope for a further rally towards the next intermediate resistance at 6125/30 (minor swing high areas of 16/18 May 2018 + 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 30 May low to 31 May high projected from  05 Jun 2018 low). On the other hand, failure to hold at 6030 invalidates the bullish scenario for another round of choppy slide to retest the 5980 key medium-term support (refer to yesterday report).
  • Germany 30 – Trend bias: Short-term up move remains in progress. The Index had managed to hold at the predefined 12750/710 key short-term support as expected (it printed a low of 12726 in yesterday, 06 Jun European session before it reversed up to retest Tues, 05 Jun high area of 12928). No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips with key short-term support remains at 12750/710 for a further potential push up towards the next intermediate resistance at 13000/13050 (minor swing high area of 28 May 2018 before the recent steep decline occurred). However, failure to hold at 12750/710 sees a deeper pull-back to retest the 12630 key medium-term support (the former 3-month range resistance of the “Bottoming” configuration from 07 Feb/24 Apr 2018 + the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 26 Mar low to 22 May 2018 high.

 *Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform




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