Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Mon 24 Sep)

USD at support with S&P 500 key major inflection level reached at 2940.

FX – USD at support

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. Medium-term corrective rebound from 15 Aug 2018 low is now right below a key short-term resistance at 1.1850 (medium-term swing high area of 07/14 Jun 2018 + Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster) with mix readings from short-term momentum oscillators. Prefer to turn neutral first between 1.1850 & 1.1685 (pull-back support of the recent bullish breakout from the neckline resistance of an Inverse Head & Shoulders that was formed from 21 Jun/10 Sep 2018 + former swing high area of 17 Sep 2018). Bulls need to see a break (an hourly close above 1.1850 for a further potential up move to target the next resistance at 1.1925/1960 (former medium-term range resistance from 20 Sep/04 Dec 2017 + Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster). On the flipside, failure to hold at 1.1685 shall put the on-going corrective rebound at risk for another potential dowleg phase to continue the primary downtrend in place since 16 Feb 2018 high of 1.2556.
  • GBP/USD - Trend bias: Primary down move may have resumed. The on-going corrective rebound has stalled just right below a key short-term resistance of 1.3300 (printed a high of 1.3299 on 20 Sep 2018) with the emergence of bearish elements. It has formed a daily bearish “One Black Crow” candlestick pattern on last Fri, 21 Sep coupled with the daily RSI oscillator that has broken a corresponding significant support at the 58 level with a prior overbought condition. Bearish bias in any bounces below key short-term resistance at 1.3210 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 20 Sep high to today, 24 Sep Asian session intraday low of 1.3057 + former minor swing high area of 19 Sep 2018) for another potential downleg to target the next near-term supports at 1.2890 and 1.2810 (minor swing low areas of 24 Aug/05 Sep 2018 + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the corrective rebound from 15 Aug 2018 low to 20 Sep 2018 high. On the other hand, a clearance above 1.3210 invalidates the bearish scenario for squeeze up to retest 1.3300.
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Bullish breakout from 8-weeks of range configuration in place since 01 Aug 2018. Bullish bias above key short-term support now at 112.26/10 (lower boundary of minor ascending channel from 07 Sep 2018 low + pull-back support of the former range resistance) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 113.20 (upper boundary of the aforementioned minor ascending channel + swing high areas of 08 Jan/18 Jul 2018). On the other hand, failure to hold above 112.10 implies a failure bullish breakout for a choppy down move towards the next near-term support at 111.65 (former minor congestion area of 05/19 Sep 2018.
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. Medium-term corrective rebound from 11 Sep 2018 low is now right below a key short-term resistance at 0.7330 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the primary down move from 26 Jan 2018 high to 11 Sep 2018 low + close to the upper boundary of the descending channel from 26 Jan 2018 high + former range support from 02 Jul/09 Aug 2018) with mix readings from short-term momentum oscillators. Prefer to turn neutral first between 0.7330 & 0.7220 (former minor swing high of 13 Sep 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 11 Sep 2018 low). A break (an hourly close) below 0.7220 may see the start of another downleg of the primary downtrend to target the next near-term support at 0.7140/7125 (minor swing low of 17 18 Sep + former minor swing high areas of 10/12 Sep 2018). On the flipside, a clearance above 0.7330 sees an extension of the corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.7485 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the primary down move from 26 Jan 2018 high to 11 Sep 2018 low + range resistance from 09 Jul/09 Aug 2018).
  • NZD/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. Medium-term corrective rebound from 11 Sep 2018 low is now right below a key short-term resistance at 0.6730 (minor swing high areas of 22/28 Aug 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the primary down move from 16 Feb 2018 high to 11 Sep 2018 low) with mix readings from short-term momentum oscillators. Prefer to turn neutral first between 0.6730 & 0.6590 (former minor swing high of 14 Sep 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 11 Sep 2018 low). A break (an hourly close) below 0.6590  may see the start of another downleg of the primary downtrend to retest the next near-term support at 06535 follow by the 11 Sep 2018 low area of 0.6500. On the flipside, a clearance above 0.6730 sees an extension of the corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.6830/6860 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the primary down move from 16 Feb 2018 high to 11 Sep 2018 low + swing high areas of 09/26 Jul 2018).

Stock Indices (CFD) – S&P 500 has reached at major key inflection level at 2940

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Sideways. The rally seen last week led the S&P 500 to print a fresh all-time high level of 2940 on last Fri, 21 Sep which corresponds to the key long-term resistance level of 2940 and ended last Friday session with a daily “Spinning Top” candlestick pattern that implies indecisiveness in sentiment. Interestingly, the leading benchmark indices (Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000) has failed to print fresh all-time high levels last week, their previous all-time high levels were recorded on 30 Aug & 31 Aug 2018 respectively) with Nasdaq 100 that formed a daily “Bearish Engulfing” candlestick pattern on last Fri, 21 Sep. We are now at a major inflection point for the S&P 500 that may see the start of a primary downtrend. However, short-term momentum oscillators are giving out mix readings at this juncture. Prefer to turn neutral in short-term first between 2940 & 2910. A break (hourly close) below 2910 is likely to see a further slide to target the next near-term support at 2880 follow by 2860 (medium-term downside trigger). On the other hand, a clearance above 2940 sees an extension of the rally to target 3000/3010 next (psychological + primary ascending channel resistance from 11 Feb 2016  + Fibonacci projection cluster).
  • Japan 225 – Trend bias: Sideways. Recent up move is approaching a medium-term resistance level of 24200 (YTD swing high area formed on 23 Jan 2018) with mix readings seen in short-term momentum oscillators. Prefer to turn neutral first between 24200 & 23500 (minor ascending trendline from 07 Sep 2018 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 07 Sep 2018 low to 21 Sep 2018 high). A break (an hourly close) below 23500 may see a further slide to test the next near-term support at 23040/23000 (the pull-back support of the former 4-month  range configuration from 21 May 2018). On the flipside, a clearance above 24200 sees an extension of the rally towards the next intermediate resistance at 24600/700 (Fibonacci projection cluster). Note: Japan cash stock market is closed for a public holiday today
  • Hong Kong 50 – Trend bias: Medium-term downtrend remains intact. Last week’s rebound has managed to stall right at the key medium-term pivotal resistance of 28000, also the pull-back resistance of the former primary ascending trendline support from Feb 2016 low with bearish elements where the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has flashed a bearish divergence signal at its overbought region. Bearish bias in any bounces below 28000 for a further potential slide to target the near-term support at 27140 (former minor swing high area of 18 Sep + minor ascending trendline from 11 Sep 2018 low) in the first step. An hourly close below 27140 is likely to see a further potential downside acceleration towards 26515/450 next. However, a clearance above 28000 invalidates the bearish tone for a further corrective up move towards the next intermediate resistance at 28560/600 (swing high area of 27/30 Aug 2018).
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Sideways, still evolving within a “bearish flag” range configuration since 07 Sep 2018 low. Prefer to turn neutral between 6211 & 6160 (lower boundary of the “bearish flag”). A break (an hourly close) below 6160 is likely to trigger a bearish breakdown for slide to retest the 07 Sep 2018 swing low area of 6100 in the first step. On the flipside, a clearance above 6211 sees a further squeeze up to towards the 6250 key medium-term pivotal resistance (pull-back resistance of the former “Expanding Wedge” range support & 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 30 Aug 2018 high to 07 Sep 2018 low.
  • Germany 30 – Trend bias: Sideways. The corrective rebound from 11 Sep 2018 low of 11862 is now right below the key medium-term pivotal resistance of 12540 which is also the pull-back resistance of the former primary ascending trendline support from Feb 2016 low. Short-term momentum oscillators are showing mix readings at this juncture, thus prefer to turn neutral first in the short-term between 12540 & 12350. An hourly close below 12350 is likely to trigger a slide to target the next near-term support at 12140/125 (former minor swing high area of 14 Sep 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 11Sep 2018 low. However, a clearance above 12540 sees an extension of the corrective rebound towards the next immediate resistance at 12890 (swing high area of 27 Jul 2018 + descending trendline from 23 Jan 2018 high).          

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