Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Mon 11 Jun)

Residual push down in USD/JPY towards inflection zone before start of a potential fresh upleg. Stock indices are still holding at their respective supports.

FX –  Mix bag with USD/JPY coming close to inflection zone for a potential fresh upleg

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Residual push up remains in progress.  The pull-back from recent 07 Jun 2018 minor swing high of 1.1840 had managed to hold right at the predefined key short-term support of 1.1737 (refer to last Fri, 08 Jun report) where it printed an intraday low of 1.1725 and had an hourly close back above 1.1737 in last Fri, 08 Jun European session. No change, maintain bullish bias with key short-term support remains at 1.1737/1725 (excess) (the pull-back support of the minor “Ascending Triangle range resistance from 31 May 2018 high + minor ascending trendline from 29 May 2018 low) for a potential residual push up to retest 1.1840 (07 Jun 2018 high) before targeting the next  resistance at 1.1880/1940 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 16 Feb 2018 high to 29 May 2018 low + former minor swing low area of 09/10 Jan 2018 that was rejected on 14 May 2018 + also now the potential breakout target of the aforementioned minor “Ascending Triangle”). However, failure to hold at 1.1737 (an hourly close below it) is likely to see the start of a deeper retracement/pull-back towards the next support at 1.1650/1616 (the minor swing low areas of 01/05 Jun 2018 + 50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 30 May to today, Asian session current intraday high of 1.18000).
  • GBP/USD – Trend bias: Sideways with risk of a deeper pull-back/retracement. Traded sideways on last Fri, 08 Jun as it tried to stage a breakdown below the predefined short-term lower neutrality zone level at 1.3370 (printed an intraday low of 1.3354 before it traded back up above 1.3370. It ended last Fri, U.S. session with another daily “Doji-liked” candlestick pattern (3rd in a row since last Wed, 06 Jun) which indicates indecisiveness in terms of sentiment as the bulls were reluctant to push prices higher after it rallied from the 29 May 2018 low of 13205 and came close to an intermediate resistance of 1.3480 (former minor range congestion support from 04/18 May 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 17 Apr 2018 high to 29 May low of 1.3205). No change, maintain neutrality stance between 1.3480 and 1.3350 (adjusted to take into account of last Fri, 08 Jun intraday low). A break below 1.3350 (an hourly close below it) is likely to trigger the start of a deeper retracement towards the next intermediate supports at 1.3300 (minor swing low areas of 04/05 Jun 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 29 May 2018 low to 07 Jun high of 1.3472) follow by 1.3260 (minor swing low area of 01 Jun 2018). On the flipside, a clearance above 1.3480 opens up scope for a further squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.3590/3650 (minor range resistance of 08/14 May 2018 +  38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 17 Apr 2018 high to 29 May low of 1.3205).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Deeper pull-back/retracement remains in progress. Inched lower as expected to print a minor low of 0.7560 in last Fri, 08 Jun European session before it staged a rebound to print a high of 0.7604 in the U.S. session. Overall, technical elements are still advocating for a further potential push down after a minor corrective rebound (in progress) to retrace a portion of the recent slide seen from 06 Jun 2018 high of 0.7676 to 08 Jun 2018 low of 0.7560 as the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has started to inch up and still has room to manoeuvre to the upside before it reaches an extreme overbought level of 97). No change, maintain bearish bias with an adjusted key short-term resistance now at 0.7630/40 (former minor swing low areas of 06/07 Jun 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going slide from 06 Jun high of 0.7676 to 08 Jun 2018 low of 0.7560) for a further potential push down to target the next intermediate support at 0.7515 (the minor swing low of 01 Jun 2018 & the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 09 May 2018 low). On the other hand, a break above 0.7640 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards 0.7690 (the pull-back resistance of the former major bearish “Ascending Wedge” support from Jan 2016 + the former medium-term swing low area of 20 Mar 2018).
  • NZD/USD - Trend bias: Sideways. Last Fri, 08 Jun price action of the pair had managed to hold above the predefined lower limit of the short-term neutrality zone at 0.7000 (printed a low of 0.7009 in the European session).  No change, maintain neutrality stance between 0.7060 (former minor swing high area of 04 May 2018 + Fibonacci projection/retracement cluster) and 0.7000 (05 Jun 2018 minor swing low). A clearance (an hourly close) above 0.7060 triggers a potential squeeze up to retest a significant medium-term resistance at 0.7190 (the former range support from 08 Feb/20 Mar 2018 before the recent bearish breakdown that led to a decline of 330 pips + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 13 Apr 2018 high to 16 May 2018 low). On the flipside, failure to hold at 0.7000 opens up scope for a decline towards the next intermediate support of 0.6960 (the former minor swing low area of 01 Jun 2018) and below exposes the next support of 0.6900 (psychological + minor ascending trendline from 15 May 2018/the start of the current short-term rebound).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Residual push down to complete pull-back/retracement. The pair had inched down lower as expected (printed a low of 109.20 in last Fri, 08 Jun European session before it minor rebound to print a high of 109.60 in the U.S. session). Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggests that pull-back/retracement of the recent minor up move from 29 May 2018 low of 108.11 to 06 Jun 2018 high of 110.26 is likely to be coming close to a potential tail end  where another round of impulsive upleg may resume. Maintain bearish bias with a tightened adjusted key short-term resistance now at 109.65 (close to last Fri, 08 U.S. session high + minor descending trendline from 06 Jun 2018 high + Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster) for a potential residual push down to target the next support at 109.05/108.90 (former minor swing high areas of 29/30 May 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 30 May 2018 low  to 06 Jun 2018 high of 110.26) before a potential upleg resurfaces.  On the other hand, a clearance above 109.65 revives the bulls for a push up to retest the 06 Jun 2018 high of 110.26 before targeting the next intermediate resistance at 110.60 (Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster + former minor swing low areas of 18/19 May 2018).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Supports are still holding

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Push up remains in progress. The pull-back from its 07 Jun 2018 minor swing high of 2779 had managed to hold right at the predefined 2760/57 key short-term support (printed a low of 2752 in last Fri, 08 Jun European session) before it staged a rebound in the U.S. session to retest the 2779 minor swing high. The short-term uptrend in place since 30 May 2018 low of 2676 remains intact, no change, maintain bullish bias in any dips with key short-term support remains tat 2757/52 (excess; to take into account of last Fri, European session low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 2790/2800 (upper boundary of a minor ascending channel from 30 May 2018 low + minor swing high areas of 12/13 Mar 2018). On the other hand, failure to hold at 2752 shall see the start of the deeper pull-back/retracement towards the 2740/30 support (former minor range resistance from 14/25 May 2018 + lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 03 May 2018 low).
  • Japan 225 – Trend bias: Push up remains in progress. The pull-back from its 07 Jun 2018 minor swing high of 22875 had managed to stage a reversal as expected. The short-term uptrend from 30 May 2018 low of 21923 remains intact. No change, maintain bullish with key short-term support now at 22550 (former minor swing high areas of 28 May/05 Jun 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 31 May 2018 minor swing low to 07 Jun 2018 minor swing high of 22875) for a further potential up to target the next intermediate resistance at 23000/23020 (psychological + swing high areas of 21/22 May 2018 + Fibonacci projection cluster). On the other hand, failure to hold at 22550 sees a deeper pull-back towards the next support at 22260 (former minor swing high areas of 30 May/01 Jun 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire short-term uptrend from 30 May 2018 low to 07 June 2018 high of 22875).
  • Hong Kong 50 – Trend bias: Sideways. Maintain neutrality stance between between 30800 (former minor swing high areas of 24/28 May 2018) and 31400 (former minor swing low of 07 Jun 2018 + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 07 June 2018 high of 31551 to 8 Jun 2018 low of 30799). Only a break above 31400 (an hourly close above it) is likely to reinstate the bulls for a potential push up to target 31800 (the key medium-term range resistance in place since 27 Feb 2018).
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Push up remains intact. The short-term uptrend in place since 29 May 2018 U.S session low of 5943 remains intact. No change, maintain  bullish bias with 6030 remains as the key short-term support (the pull-back support of the former minor range top from 31 May/04 Jun 2018) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 6087 (minor congestion area from 07 May/21 May 2018 + 61.8%/76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 15 May high to 29 May 2018 U.S. session low of 5943) and a break above 6087 opens up scope for a further rally towards the next resistance at 6125/30 (minor swing high areas of 16/18 May 2018 + 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 29 May low to 31 May high projected from 05 Jun 2018 low). On the other hand, failure to hold at 6030 invalidates the bullish scenario for another round of choppy slide to retest the 5980 key medium-term support.
  • Germany 30 – Trend bias: Push up within range.  Managed to stage a rebound as expected right at the 12630 key medium-term support on last Fri, 08 Jun to print a high of 12811 in the U.S. session. No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips above the 12630 key medium-term support (the former 3-month range resistance of the “Bottoming” configuration from 07 Feb/24 Apr 2018 + the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 26 Mar 2018 low to 22 May 2018 high) to retest  last Fri, 08 Jun minor swing high area of 12810 before targeting the 12900 minor range resistance formed on 05/07 Jun 2018.  On the flipside, a daily close below 12630 shall open up scope for a significant multi-week corrective decline towards the next support at 12300/200 (swing low area of 25 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 26 Mar low to 22 May 2018 high + the primary ascending trendline in place since Feb 2016 low).

 *Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform


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