Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Fri 28 Sep)

USD strength intact, mix bag for stock indices

FX – USD strength remains intact

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Down. Broke below the 1.1685 lower limit of the neutrality zone as per cautioned in our previous report to print an intraday low of 1.1637 in yesterday, 27 Sep U.S. session and ended the day with a daily bearish “One Black Crow” candlestick pattern that wiped out the earlier gains seen 5 days ago. These observations indicate the revival of bearish sentiment. Turn bearish in any bounces below 1.1700 key short-term resistance (pull-back resistance of former minor ascending trendline support from 15 Aug 2018 low + former minor swing low of 27 Sep 2018 + close to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from post FOMC 26 Sep 2018 high of 1.1798 to today, 28 Sep current intraday low of 1.1630) for a further potential downleg to retest the 1.1530 support in the first step (minor swing low areas of 04/10 Sep 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 15 Aug 2018 low to 24 Sep 2018 high). On the flipside, a clearance above 1.1700 negates the bearish tone for a push up towards the medium-term resistance zone of 1.1795/1850 (swing high area of 07/14 Jun 2018 + Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster).
  • GBP/USD - Trend bias: Down.  Continued to inch lower as expected and almost met the first near-term support/target of 1.3057 (printed a low of 1.3072 in today, 28 Sep Asian session). Maintain bearish bias in any bounces below 1.3150 key short-term resistance (minor descending trendline from 20 Sep 2018 high + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from post FOMC 26 Sep 2018 high of 1.3218 to today, 28 Sep current intraday low of 1.3072) for another potential downleg to target the next near-term support at 1.2890 next (minor swing low areas of 24 Aug/05 Sep 2018). On the flipside, a clearance above 1.3150 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest 1.3210/3220 (minor swing high area of 26 Sep 2018).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Up. Inched higher as expected and met the resistance/target of 113.60. No clear signs of bullish exhaustion. Maintain bullish bias in any dips above tightened key short-term support now at 112.85 (the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel in place since 07 Sep 2018 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 07 Sep 2018 low to today, 28 Sep Asian session current intraday high of 113.63) for a further potential push up to target the next resistance at 114.10/30 (Fibonacci projection cluster + major range resistance from 09 May /03 Nov 2017). On the flipside, failure to hold at 112.85 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest 112.10 (pull-back support of the former range resistance that was broken out on 18 Sep 2018).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Down. Broke below the 0.7220 lower limit of the neutrality zone as per cautioned in our previous report to print a current intraday low of 0.7200 in today, 28 Sep Asian session. Turn bearish in any bounces below 0.7260 key short-term resistance (pull-back resistance of the former minor ascending trendline support from 11 Sep 2018 low + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from post FOMC 26 Sep 2018 high of 0.7315 to today, 28 Sep current intraday low of 0.7200) for another potential downleg to target the next near-term support at 0.7140/7125 (minor swing low of 17 18 Sep + former minor swing high areas of 10/12 Sep 2018). On the flipside, a clearance above 0.7260 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest 0.7330 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the primary down move from 26 Jan 2018 high to 11 Sep 2018 low + the upper boundary of the medium-term descending channel from 26 Jan 2018 high + former range support from 02 Jul/09 Aug 2018).
  • NZD/USD – Trend bias: Down. Broke below the 0.6630 lower limit of the neutrality zone as per cautioned in our previous report to print a current intraday low of 0.6606 in today, 28 Sep Asians session. Turn bearish in any bounces below key short-term resistance at 0.6650 (pull-back resistance of the former minor ascending trendline support from 11 Sep 2018 low + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from post FOMC 26 Sep 2018 high of 0.6696 to today, 28 Sep current intraday low of 0.6606) for another potential downleg towards 06535 follow by the 11 Sep 2018 low area of 0.6500. On the flipside, a clearance above 0.6650 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest 0.7000 (minor range resistance in place since 21 Sep 2018).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Mix bag

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Down. Yesterday’s push up in the Index seen during the U.S. session was stalled at the 2927 level which is closed to the previous post FOMC high of 2931 printed on 26 Sep 2018, U.S. session. In addition, yesterday’s rally was rejected by the upper boundary of a minor descending channel that has formed since the current al-time high level of 2940/41 printed on 21 Sep 2018 with overbought readings seen in both the 4/1-hour Stochastic oscillators. Maintain bearish bias below 2927/31 key short-term resistance for a potential push down to retest the near-term support at 2902/2900 (the recent minor swing low of 27 Sep 2018 + lower boundary of the minor descending channel). On the flipside, a clearance above 2931 put the bears on hold to see a squeeze up to retest the 2940 key long-term pivotal resistance.
  • Japan 225 – Trend bias: Sideways. Continued to push higher in with a bullish USD/JPY. Right now, it is challenging the 24200 key medium-term range resistance as per highlighted in our weekly technical outlook report (click here for the details). Turn neutral now as we need to have a daily close above 24200 to validate a further upmove, the next intermediate resistance stands at 24800/880 (Fibonacci projection cluster + upper boundary of a minor ascending channel from 07 Sep 2018 low). Near-term support to watch will be at 23950 (the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel) and a break below 23950 sees a potential slide to test the support at 23580 (minor swing low of 20 Sep 2018).
  • Hong Kong 50 – Trend bias: Sideways. Failed to make lower lows and continued to churn below the 28000 key medium-term pivotal resistance. Prefer to turn neutral now between 28000 & 27400 (minor swing low area of 24 Sep 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 11 Sep 2018 low). Bears need to have a break (an hourly close) below 27400 to trigger at least a minor slide to target the near-term support at 26730 (the minor swing low areas of 17/18 Sep 2018) in the first step. On the other hand, a clearance with a daily close above 28000 sees an extension of the corrective rebound in place since 11 Sep 2018 low to target the next intermediate resistance at 28580/600 (minor swing high areas of 28/30Aug 2018).
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Push up within range. Continued to churn within the “bearish flag” range configuration in place since 07 Sep 2018 low of 6100 and break above the previous minor swing high of 6217. Right now as long as the near-term support at 6170 holds (the lower boundary of the “bearish flag”), the Index may stage a further push up to target the 6250 key medium-term pivotal resistance (also now the upper boundary of the “bearish flag” + pull-back resistance of the former “Expanding Wedge” range support & 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 30 Aug 2018 high to 07 Sep 2018 low). On the flipside, a break (an hourly close) below 6170 triggers a bearish breakdown from the range for a slide to retest the next near-term support at 6130 (minor swing low area of 13 Sep 2018) in the first step.
  • Germany 30 – Trend bias: Sideways. Failure to stage a bearish breakdown below 12340 and reintegrated back into the range. Turn neutral between 12460 & 12270 (yesterday, 27 Sep European session low + minor ascending trendline from 11 Sep 2018 low). A break (an hourly close) below 12270 is required to revive the bearish tone for a potential slide to target the  next near-term support at 11990 (minor swing low area of 18 Sep 2018) follow by 11900 (swing low areas of 07/11 Sep 2018). On the flipside, a break above 12460 sees a further push up to test the 12540 key medium-term pivotal resistance (pull-back resistance of the former primary ascending trendline support from Feb 2016 low).

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