Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Fri 12 Oct)

FX –  Mix bag, watch EUR/USD resistance at 1.1650/1670

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Countertrend rebound extends. Pushed up as expected and met the resistance/target of 1.1620 (minor swing high areas of 28 Sep/01 Oct 2018 + 50%  Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 24 Sep 2018 high to 09 Oct 2018 low). No signs of short-term bullish exhaustion at this juncture from 4/1-hour Stochastic oscillators. Maintain bullish bias with tightened key short-term support now at 1.1575 (the former minor swing high area of 11 Oct 2018, U.S. opening + minor ascending trendline from 09 Oct 2018 low of  1.1429) for a further potential push up to target 1.1650/1670 intermediate resistance (Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster + former neckline of the failure bullish “Inverse Head & Shoulders” breakout from 07 Jun 2018 high) before another potential downleg materialises. On the other hand, a break below 1.1575 invalidates the corrective rebound scenario for a continuation of the impulsive down move to retest 1.1430/1410 support.
  • GBP/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. No change, maintain neutrality stance within a tighter zone between 1.3300 (medium-term range resistance in place since 09 Jul 2018) & 1.3180 (minor range support since yesterday, 11 Oct). An hourly close below 1.3180 shall trigger a potential slide to retest the near-term support of 1.3130 (former minor swing high area of 08 Oct 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 04 Oct 2018 low). On the flipside, a clearance above 1.3300 sees a squeeze up/an extension of the corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.3510/3620 (minor swing high area of 10 May 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 17 Apr 2018 high to 15 Aug 2018 low).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Sideways with risk of countertrend rebound. The pair had traded within the short-term neutrality zone of 111.90 (intraday low of 111.81 in yesterday U.S. session but no hourly close below 111.90) and 112.55 as per highlighted in our previous report. It printed a high of 112.53 in yesterday, 11 Oct U.S. session and ended with a daily “Spinning Top/Doji” candlestick pattern right at the 111.90 support (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior up move from 07 Sep 2018 low to 04 Oct 2018 high + pull-back support of the former major descending resistance from 05 Jun 2015). An hourly close above 112.55 opens up scope for a potential countertrend rebound towards the intermediate resistance of 113.20/35 (minor swing high areas of 09/10 Oct 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 04 Oct 2018 high to 11 Oct 2018 low). On the flipside, failure to hold at 111.90 sees an extension of the impulsive downleg to target the next near-term support at 111.65/50 (medium-term ascending channel support from 26 Mar 2018 low +former medium-term range resistance from 31 Jul 2018 high).
  • AUD/USD - Trend bias: Down. Yesterday’s push up has managed to stall again at the 0.7120/7126 key short-term resistance as per highlited in our previous report. Maintain bearish bias with 0.7120/7126 remains as the key short-term resistance and added 0.7110 as the downside trigger level (minor ascemnding trendline from 11 Oct 2018 low). An hourly close below 0.7110 reinforces another potenital downleg to retest recent swing low area of 0.7040 since 06 Oct 2018 before targeting the next support at 0.6970/50 (Fibonacci projection cluster + lower boundary of the medium-term descending channel in place since 26 Jan 2018 high). On the other hand, a clearance above 0.7120/7126 sees a squeeze up to retest 0.7240/7260 (minor swing high of 28 Sep/02 Oct 2018 + upper boundary of the aforementioned medium-term descending channel).
  • NZD/USD - Trend bias: Countertrend rebound. The pair had broken above the 0.6500 key short-term resistance which invalidated our bearish scenario. Right now, it may start to undergo at least a minor corrective rebound to retrace the medium-term down move from 06 Jun 2018 high to 08 Oct 2018 low of 0.6421). Flip to a bullish bias in any dips with key short-term support at 0.6480 (former minor swing high area of 10 Oct 2018 + pull-back support of former descending trendline resistance from 26 Sep 2018 high) for a further potential push up to target 0.6630/0.6660 resistance next (upper boundary of a medium-term descending channel from 07 Jun 2018 high + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 06 Jun 2018 high to 08 Oct 2018 low of 0.6421). On the other hand, a break below 0.6480 reinstates the bears for a push down to retest 0.6420 before targeting the next support at 0.6360/6330 (Fibonacci projection cluster + lower boundary of the medium-term descending channel in place since 07 Jun 2018 high).

Stock Indices (CFD) – S&P 500 still showing risk of a last push down ahead of key banks Q3 earnings before a minor corrective rebound phase kicks in.

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Down. The Index has continued to inch down lower as expected below the predefined key short-term resistance of 2803 (refer to yesterday’s report) to print another lower low of 2708 in yesterday’s 11 Oct U.S. session before it retraced more than 50% of its losses from yesterday, 11 Oct high of 2794 to print an current intraday high of 2765, in today, 12 Oct Asian session. No clear signs of bearish exhaustion yet, maintain bearish bias in any bounces below adjusted key short-term resistance at 2797 (the former minor range support of 17 Jul/02 Aug 2018 + pull-back resistance of the former major ascending channel support from 11 Feb 2016 low + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 03 Oct 2018 high to yesterday, 11 Oct low of 2708) for another potential push down to target next near-term support at 2700/2690 (Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster + medium-term swing low areas of 29 May/28 Jun 2018 + pull-back support for the former primary/long-term ascending channel resistance bullish breakout from Mar 2009) before the risk of a countertrend/corrective rebound materialises. On the other hand, a clearance above 2797 triggers a corrective rebound to retest the intermediate resistance of 2860(61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 03 Oct 2018 high of 2895 to yesterday, 11 Oct low of 2708 + former medium-term downside trigger level).
  • Japan 225 – Trend bias: Down. No change, maintain bearish bias in any bounces below 23000 key short-term resistance (also now the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 01 Oct 2018 high to current, 11 Oct  Asian session intraday low of 22496) for a further potential push down to target the next support at 21850 (swing low areas of 13/15 Aug 2018 + major ascending channel support from Jun 2016 low). On the other hand, a clearance above 23000 sees a steeper corrective rebound to retest the intermediate resistance of 23500/600 (minor swing high of 10 Oct 2018 + 50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 01 Oct 2018 high to 11 Oct 2018 low of 22241).
  • Hong Kong 50 – Trend bias: Down. No change, maintain bearish bias below key short-term resistance 25815 (upper limit of 10 Oct Asian session opening gapped down + Fibonacci retracement cluster) for a further potential push down to target our medium-term support/target at 24900/740 (also the lower boundary of the medium-term descending channel from 07 Jun 2018 high). On the other hand, a clearance above 25815 sees a steeper corrective rebound to retest the intermediate resistances of 26100 (former swing low area of 11 Sep 2018) and even 26500/640 next (minor swing high areas of 05/10 Oct 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 26 Sep 2018 high to to 11 Oct 2018 low of 25080).
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Sideways with risk of countertrend rebound extension. Pushed down lower as expected and met the support/target of 5850 (printed a low of 5747 in yesterday, 11 Oct U.S. session) before it staged a rebound of 2.6% to print a current intraday high of 5901 in today, 12 Oct Asian session. Mix elements now, as the Index is undergoing a corrective rebound phase to retrace the impulsive down move in place since 28 Sep 2018 high of 6232. Prefer to turn neutral now between 5901 and 5750. An hourly close above 5901 sees an extension of the corrective rebound to retest the next intermediate resistance at 5980/90 (the pull-back resistance of the former major ascending channel support from 10 Feb 2016 low + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 28 Sep 2018 high to yesterday, 11 Oct U.S. session low of 5747). On the flipside, a break below 5750 sees an extension of the down move to target the next support at 5710/5700 (medium-term swing low areas of 09 Feb/03 Apr 2018 low + psychological).
  • Germany 30 – Trend bias: Sideways. Pushed down as expected and met the medium-term support/target of 11400 (lower boundary of the medium-term descending channel from 14 Jun 2018 high). Mix elements now, prefer to turn neutral first between 11800 (the former neckline support of the  major “Head & Shoulders” bearish reversal configuration in place since 20 Jun 2017 that was broken down on 10 Oct 2018) and 11400. An hourly close below 11400 sees an extension of the down move to target the next near-term support at 11160/130 (Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster). On the flipside, a clearance above 11800 triggers a countertrend rebound to towards the next intermediate resistance at 12000/12050 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 28 Sep 2018 high to yesterday, 11 Oct U.S. session low of 11396.       


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