Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Fri 08 Jun)

Mix bag in FX space with USD strength seen against AUD & GBP. S&P 500 is undergoing a potential residual push up before risk of a deeper pull-back.

FX –  Mix bag with USD strength seen against AUD & GBP

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Residual push up remains in progress.  The pair had managed to inch higher as expected  in yesterday, 07 Jun European session as it headed towards the resistance/target zone of 1.1880/1940 (refer to yesterday report). It printed a high of 1.1840 before it pull-backed in the U.S. session to print a low of 1.1803. No major changes on its key short-term technical elements and yesterday’s pull-back has triggered an oversold condition in the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator. Maintain bullish bias with key short-term support remains at 1.1737 (the pull-back support of the minor “Ascending Triangle range resistance from 31 May 2018 high + minor ascending trendline from 29 May 2018 low) for a potential residual push up to target the resistance at 1.1880/1940 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 16 Feb 2018 high to 29 May 2018 low + former minor swing low area of 09/10 Jan 2018 that was rejected on 14 May 2018 + also now the potential breakout target of the aforementioned minor “Ascending Triangle”). However, failure to hold at 1.1737 is likely to see the start of a deeper retracement/pull-back towards the next support at 1.1650/1616 (the minor swing low areas of 01/05 Jun 2018 + 50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 30 May to today, Asian session current intraday high of 1.18000).
  • GBP/USD – Trend bias: Sideways with risk of a deeper pull-back/retracement. Push up as expected and almost hit the resistance/target of 1.3480 (refer to yesterday report) as it printed a high of 1.3472 in yesterday’s 07 Jun European session. Elements are now mixed with a daily “Long-legged Doji” seen at the end of yesterday U.S. session which indicates a potential reversal or pause on its prior bullish sentiment. Prefer to turn neutral now between 1.3480 (former minor range congestion support from 04/18 May 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 17 Apr 2018 high to 29 May low of 1.3205) & 1.3370 (low of the aforementioned “Long-legged Doji” candlestick + + lower boundary of a minor ascending range configuration in place since 29 May 2018 low). A break below 1.3370 is likely to trigger the start of a deeper retracement towards the next intermediate supports at 1.3300 (minor swing low areas of 04/05 Jun 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 29 May 2018 low to yesterday, 06 Jun high of 1.3472) follow by 1.3260 (minor swing low area of 01 Jun 2018). On the flip side, a clearance above 1.3480 opens up scope for a further squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.3590/3650 (minor range resistance of 08/14 May 2018 +  38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 17 Apr 2018 high to 29 May low of 1.3205).  
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Deeper pull-back/retracement remains in progress. The pair had shaped the pull-backed as expected right below the 0.7690 key resistance (the pull-back resistance of the former major bearish “Ascending Wedge” support from Jan 2016 and the former medium-term swing low area of 20 Mar 2018, refer to yesterday report). Yesterday’s slide had led the pair to print a low of  0.7610 which is just above the first intermediate support/target of 0.7585 (former minor swing high areas of 25/31 May 2018).  No change, maintain bearish bias with tightened key short-term resistance now at 0.7650 (minor descending trendline from 07 Jun 2018 high + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going slide from 07 Jun 2018 high to yesterday, 07 Jun low of 0.7610) for a further potential push down to retest 0.7585 and a break below 0.7585 (an hourly close below it) opens up scope for a further potential decline to target the next intermediate support at 0.7515 (the minor swing low of 01 Jun 2018 & the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 09 May 2018 low). On the other hand, a break above 0.7650 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards 0.7690.
  • NZD/USD - Trend bias: Sideways. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 0.7060 (former minor swing high area of 04 May 2018 + Fibonacci projection/retracement cluster) and 0.7000 (05 Jun 2018 minor swing low). A clearance (an hourly close) above 0.7060 triggers a potential squeeze up to retest a significant medium-term resistance at 0.7190 (the former range support from 08 Feb/20 Mar 2018 before the recent bearish breakdown that led to a decline of 330 pips + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 13 Apr 2018 high to 16 May 2018 low). On the flipside, failure to hold at 0.7000 opens up scope for a decline towards the next intermediate support of 0.6960 (the former minor swing low area of 01 Jun 2018) and below exposes the next support of 0.6900 (psychological + minor ascending trendline from 15 May 2018/the start of the current short-term rebound).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Risk of deeper pull-back/retracement. The pair broke below the 109.75 tightened key short-term support that invalidated the residual push up scenario towards 110.60 (refer to yesterday report). Flip to a bearish bias with key short-term resistance at 110.10 (close to yesterday, 07 Jun European session high) for a further potential slide to target the next support at 109.05/108.90 (former minor swing high areas of 29/30 May 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 30 May 2018 low  to 06 Jun 2018 high of 110.26). On the other hand, a clearance above 110.10 revives the bulls for a push up to target the 110.60 resistance (Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster + former minor swing low areas of 18/19 May 2018).

Stock Indices (CFD) – S&P 500 shaping potential residual push up before risk of a deeper pull-back

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Residual push up in progress. Yesterday’s slide had managed to hold right above the predefined 2760/57 key short-term support (refer to yesterday report) as it printed a low of 2760 in yesterday, 07 Jun U.S. session before it erased most of its initial losses to end the U.S. session with a small loss of 0.07%. Short-term cracks had started to materialise to support our “residual push up view” on the S&P 500 as per highlighted in yesterday report as the pull-back seen in yesterday U.S. session had been led by the higher beta indices/sectors such as NYSE FANG+ Index (- 0.99%), Nasdaq 100 (-0.79%), U.S. Semiconductor sector (-0.95%), Russell 2000 (-0.49%). Maintain bullish bias with key short-term support remains at 2760/57 for a potential residual push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 2785/90 before risk of pull-back/retracement (the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel from 30 May 2018 low + Fibonacci projection cluster). On the other hand, failure to hold at 2760/57 shall see the start of the deeper pull-back/retracement towards the 2740/30 support (former minor range resistance from 14/25 May 2018) in the first step.
  • Japan 225 – Trend bias: Residual push up before risk of consolidation. Yesterday, 07 Jun slide seen in the U.S. session had managed to stall right at the predefined tightened key short-term support at 22630 (printed a low of 22635) before it reversed all its losses to retest yesterday, 07 Jun Asian session high of 22875 in today, 08 Jun Asian session (refer to yesterday report).  No change, maintain bullish bias with key short-term support remains at 22630 for a potential residual push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 23000/23020 (psychological + swing high areas of 21/22 May 2018 + upper boundary of the minor ascending channel support from 31 May 2018 low + Fibonacci projection cluster) before risk of a deeper pull-back/consolidation However, a break below 22630 triggers the start of the pull-back towards the 22450/380 support (06 Jun 2018 minor swing low + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire up move from 30 May 2018 low to 08 Jun 2018 current intraday high of 22875).
  • Hong Kong 50 – Trend bias: Sideways. Broke below the 31150 tightened key short-term support (refer to yesterday report) in today, 08 Jun Asian session that has reduced the odds of the residual push up scenario towards the 31800 key medium-term range resistance. Mix elements now, prefer to turn neutral first between 30800 (former minor swing high areas of 24/28 May 2018) and 31400 (former minor swing low of 07 Jun 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going slide from 07 June 2018 high of 31551 to today, 08 Jun Asian session current intraday low of 31078). Only a break above 31400 (an hourly close above it) is likely to reinstate the bulls for a potential push up to target 31800 (the key medium-term range resistance in place since 27 Feb 2018).
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Up move remains intact. The pull-back seen in yesterday, 07 Jun U.S. session had managed to stall right at the predefined key short-term support of 6030 (refer to yesterday report) as it printed a low of 6038. No change, maintain  bullish bias with 6030 remains as the key short-term support (the pull-back support of the aforementioned former minor range top) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 6087 (minor congestion area from 07 May/21 May 2018 + 61.8%/76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 15 May high to 29 May 2018 U.S. session low of 5943) and a break above 6087 opens up scope for a further rally towards the next resistance at 6125/30 (minor swing high areas of 16/18 May 2018 + 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 30 May low to 31 May high projected from  05 Jun 2018 low). On the other hand, failure to hold at 6030 invalidates the bullish scenario for another round of choppy slide to retest the 5980 key medium-term support.
  • Germany 30 – Trend bias: Push up within range.  After a retest on its previous minor swing high area of 12900 seen on Tues, 05 Jun 2018, the Index had erased all its initial gains and headed lower to print a low of 12665 in yesterday, 07 Jun U.S. session. The Index is now back right above the 12630 key medium-term support (the former 3-month range resistance of the “Bottoming” configuration from 07 Feb/24 Apr 2018 + the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 26 Mar low to 22 May 2018 high) with oversold readings seen in both the 4 hour/1  hour Stochastic oscillator where a potential push up may materialise to retest 12820 (the minor pull-back resistance of the former ascending trendline from 31 May 2018 low) and even the recent 12900 minor range resistance formed on 05/07 Jun 2018.  On the flipside, a daily close below 12630 shall open up scope for a significant multi-week corrective decline towards the next support at 12300/200 (swing low area of 25 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 26 Mar low to 22 May 2018 high + the primary ascending trendline in place since Feb 2016 low).

 *Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform


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