Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Wed 20 Mar)

Watch EUR/USD 1.1395/1.1400 key resistance as FOMOC looms.

FX – 1.1395/1.1400 key resistance on EUR/USD may capped further gains as FOMC looms

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Residual push up within range before slide. Traded a tight range of 27 pips in yesterday, 19 Mar session (49% lower than its 14-day ATR of 53 pips) above the 1.1315 tightened key short-term support as per highlighted in our previous report. Current price compression actions suggests that that the pair may be evolving within a minor bullish “Ascending Triangle” range configuration in place since 18 Mar 2019 minor swing high of 1.1360. No change, maintain bullish bias with 1.1315 as key short-term support for a potential residual push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.1395/1.1400 (01 Mar 2019 minor swing high area + medium-term descending trendline from 24 Sep 2018 high + breakout exit potential of the minor “Ascending Triangle”) before risk of another slide materialises. However, failure to hold 1.1315 sees the start of another slide towards its range support with the first potential pitstop at the 1.1270/1260 near-term support (50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going rebound from 08 Mar 2019 low to 19 Mar 2019 high.
  • GBP/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 1.3350 and 1.3200. Only an hourly close below 1.3200 shall revive the push down within range scenario for a retest on the 1.3000/2950 support (11 Mar 2019 swing low + ascending support from 03 Jan 2019). However, a clearance with a daily close above 1.3350 opens up scope for a potential multi-week up move to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.3640/3710 in the first step. (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous decline from 17 Apr 2018 high to 03 Jan 2019 low + former swing low area of 01 Mar 2018.
  • USD/JPY – Trend bias: Push down within range. The pair has “popped” higher from yesterday, 19 Mar U.S. session swing low of 111.40 by 43 pips to print a current intraday high of 111.69 in today, 20 Mar Asian session. The current push up in price action came after the release of BOJ minutes for its previous monetary policy meeting in Jan where most members agreed to maintain BOJ’s current accommodative stance. Interestingly, the push up is now residing right under the 111.70 tightened key short-term resistance as per highlighted in our previous report. Current price action in the last 2 hours have formed hourly ‘Shooting Star” and “Hanging Man” candlestick patterns which indicates the risk of a minor bearish reversal at this juncture. No change, maintain bearish bias below the 111.70 key short-term resistance (minor descending trendline from 02 Mar 2019 high + minor swing high area of 15 Mar 2019) for a further potential slide to retest 110.75 (minor swing low areas of 28 Feb/08 Mar 2019). However, a clearance above 111.70 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze back up towards the 112.10/20 resistance (the former medium-term swing low areas of 20 Nov/06 Dec 2018).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Push down within range. The pair has broken below the 0.7070 key short-term support in today early Asian session (also the lower boundary of the minor bearish “Ascending Wedge” configuration from 08 Mar 2019 low). Hence, the residual push up scenario has been invalidated. Flip back to a bearish bias with key short-term resistance at 0.7090 (the former minor swing low of 19 Mar 2019 + former minor “Ascending Wedge” support) for a further potential push down to target the 0.7020/0.7000 neckline support of the minor “Head & Shoulders” bearish reversal configuration in motion since 11 Jan 2019 swing high. However, a break above 0.7090 sees another round of choppy movement for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.7120/7145 (minor swing high areas of 01/18 mar 2019 + 61.8/76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the prior slide from 27 Feb 2019 high to 08 Mar 2019 low).
  • NZD/USD - Trend bias: Push down within range.  No change, 0.6870 remains the key short-term resistance for a potential slide to retest 0.6805 and an hourly close below it opens up scope for a further slide towards the next support at 0.6750/6730 (minor swing low areas of 06/08 Mar 2019 + lower boundary of the medium-term “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration in motion since 08 Oct 2018 low). However, a break above 0.6870 negates the bearish tone for a push up to retest 0.6900/6920 (the upper boundary of the medium-term “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration in motion since 08 Oct 2018 low).   

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