Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Wed 20 Jan)

Mix bag with USD strength setback seen in EUR & GBP.

FX – USD strength setback in EUR & GBP

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push up within range. The pair has continued its bounce after a retest on its 13 Nov 2018 low of 1.1214 on last Fri, 15 Feb. Current price action has started to suggest the pair is still evolving within a “Descending Triangle” range configuration in place since 13 Nov 2018 and last Fri’s retest on its range support of 1.1214/1.1200 is likely to indicate a “push up” in progress towards the “Descending Triangle” range top/resistance now at 1.1440/1460. Key short-term support for today will at 1.1320 for a for a further potential push up to target 1.1375 and 1.1400 intermediate resistances in first step. On the flipside, failure to hold at 1.1320 sees another round of choppy slide to retest yesterday, 19 Feb swing low area of 1.1270.
  • GBP/USD – Trend bias: Push up within range. The recent slide from 1.3218 high of 25 Jan 2019 has managed to find support at 1.2800/2770 (the minor ascending trendline in place since 11 Dec 2018 swing low). Current price action suggests a further potential push up in progress to retest the 1.3310 range resistance of a choppy range configuration in place since 20 Sep 2018 swing high area. Key short-term support for today will be at 1.2970 (the pull-back support of the former descending trendline from 26 Jan 2019 high + former minor swing high area 07/08 Feb 2019) for a further potential push up to retest the 26 Jan 2019 swing high area of 1.3200/3220. On the flipside, failure to hold at 1.2970 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest yesterday, 19 Feb low of 1.2890.
  • USD/JPY – Trend bias: Push up within range. The minor uptrend phase in place since the 03 Jan 2019 flash crash low of 104.70 within a major sideways range since 10 May 2017 remains intact. Key short-term support for today will be at 110.55 (the minor ascending trendline from 09 Feb 2019 swing low + former minor swing high area of 15 Feb 2019) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistances at 111.10 and 111.40. On the flipside, failure to hold at 110.55 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest the next support at 110.00/109.90 (former swing high areas of 19 Jan/07 Feb 2019).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Push down within range. Since its 550 pips rebound from the 03 Jan 2019 flash crash low of 0.6743, the price action of the pair has not turned impulsive which suggests that the pair is still stuck within a range configuration. On a shorter-term basis as seen on the hourly chart, the pair is tracing out a potential bearish “Head & Shoulders” configuration (click this link for more details as per highlighted in yesterday’s Featured Trade). In today’s early Asian session, the pair has staged a push up to test the upper limit of the key short-term resistance at 0.7170 (printed a current intraday high of 0.7175) before it traded back down. Interestingly, both the hourly Stochastic and RSI oscillators have started to flash bearish divergences signals at their respective overbought regions. Key short-term resistance for today will be at 0.7170/7175 for a potential push down to retest the lower boundary of a minor ascending range in place since 12 Feb 2019 low now acting as a support at 0.7110. An hourly close below 0.7110  sees a further potential push down to test the next near-term support at 0.7085 in the first step. On the flipside, a clearance above 0.7170/7175 sees a further squeeze up towards 0.7200 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 31 Jan 2019 high to 12 Feb 2019 low).
  • NZD/USD – Trend bias: Push down within range. The recent bounce from 12 Feb 2019 low of 0.6716 has reached the former minor ascending trendline support from 03 Jan 2019 low now turns pull-back resistance at 0.6900. In addition, the hourly RSI oscillator has flashed a bearish divergence signal at its overbought region. Key short-term resistance for today will be at 0.6900 for a potential push down to retest the near-term supports of 0.6800 and 0.6725. On the flipside, a break above 0.6800 sees a squeeze up to retest 0.6970 (04 Dec 2018 swing high).               

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