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Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Wed 13 Mar)

FX – AUD/USD looks vulnerable again for a bearish breakdown

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push up within range. The pair has broken above the 1.1285 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone as per highlighted in our report. It has also ended yesterday, 12 Mar U.S. session with a close of 1.1287 that has pushed up and covered more than 2/3 of the bearish daily “Marubozu-liked” candlestick body seen on 07 Mar 2019 (ECB monetary policy decision). Thus, flip to a bullish bias above key short-term support now at 1.1245 (minor ascending trendline from 07 Mar 2019 low + former minor swing high of 11 Mar 2019) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistances at 1.1320 and 1.1360 (former minor swing low areas of 28 Feb/02 Mar 2019 + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 28 Feb 2019 high to 07 Mar 2019 low). However, a break below 1.1250 reinstates the bears for another downleg to retest 07 Mar 2019 low of 1.1176 in the first step.
  • GBP/USD – Trend bias: Push down within range. The pair has staged the expected push down below the 1.3300/3350 key medium-term range resistance in place since 20 Sep 2018 and hit the short-term support/target of 1.3080 (printed a low of 1.3004 and traded sideways after the U.K parliament rejected PM May revised Brexit deal). Today, the parliament will vote on whether to allow for a further extension to the 29 Mar 2019 Brexit deadline or a hard Brexit where U.K will leave the EU without a deal on 29 Mar. Key short-term resistance for today will be at 1.3240 (yesterday, 12 Mar European session swing high + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the yesterday’s decline from 12 Mar 2019 high) for a further potential push down to retest 1.2950 (11 Mar 2019 swing low + ascending support from 03 Jan 2019). A break below 1.2950 reinforces a further slide towards the 14 Feb 2019 swing low area of 1.2800. However, a clearance above 1.3240 shall see another round of choppy push up towards the 1.3300/3350 key medium-term range resistance.
  • USD/JPY – Trend bias: Down. No change, maintain bearish bias in any bounces below 111.60 key short-term resistance (former minor swing low areas of 05/07 Mar 2019 + Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster) for another round of potential push down to retest 110.75 and below it opens up scope for another minor downleg to target the next support at 110.30/110.00 (minor swing low areas of 15/27 Feb 2019 + ascending channel support from 03 Jan 2019 flash crash swing low area). However, a clearance above 111.60 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze back up to retest the 01/05 Mar 2019 swing high area of 112.10/20.
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Push down within range. The pair has inched down lower as expected from the 0.7090 key short-term resistance as per highlighted in our previous report. It printed a high of 0.7091 in yesterday, 12 Mar European session before it retreated to print a current intraday low of 0.7049 in today, 13 Mar Asian session. No change, maintain bearish bias in any bounces below the 0.7090 key short-term resistance for a further potential slide to retest the 0.7020/0.7000 neckline support of the minor “Head & Shoulders” bearish reversal configuration in motion since 11 Jan 2019 swing high. A break below 0.7000 shall trigger a bearish breakdown for a further decline to target the next support at 0.6915/6870 (03 Jan 2019 flash crash swing low area + Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster). However, a clearance above 0.7090 negates the bearish tone for a further push up towards 0.7125 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous push down from 27 Feb 2019 high to 08 Mar 2019 low + minor congestion area of 27 Feb to 01 Mar 2019).
  • NZD/USD - Trend bias: Push down within range. Yesterday’s push up to a high of 0.6872 has stalled right at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the previous slide from 26 Feb 2019 high to 08 Mar 2019 low. In today, Asian session, it has staged a breakdown below the minor ascending support from 08 Mar 2019 low. Thus, flip to a bearish bias below 0.6870 key short-term resistance for a further potential slide to retest the next near-term support at 0.6805/6790 (the minor congestion area of 06/09 Mar 2019). However, a clearance above 0.6870 negates the bearish tone for a push up to test 0.6900/6920 (the upper boundary of the medium-term “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration in motion since 08 Oct 2018 low).   

     


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