FX – AUD/USD looks vulnerable again for a bearish breakdown
- EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push up within range. The pair has broken above the 1.1285 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone as per highlighted in our report. It has also ended yesterday, 12 Mar U.S. session with a close of 1.1287 that has pushed up and covered more than 2/3 of the bearish daily “Marubozu-liked” candlestick body seen on 07 Mar 2019 (ECB monetary policy decision). Thus, flip to a bullish bias above key short-term support now at 1.1245 (minor ascending trendline from 07 Mar 2019 low + former minor swing high of 11 Mar 2019) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistances at 1.1320 and 1.1360 (former minor swing low areas of 28 Feb/02 Mar 2019 + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 28 Feb 2019 high to 07 Mar 2019 low). However, a break below 1.1250 reinstates the bears for another downleg to retest 07 Mar 2019 low of 1.1176 in the first step.
- GBP/USD – Trend bias: Push down within range. The pair has staged the expected push down below the 1.3300/3350 key medium-term range resistance in place since 20 Sep 2018 and hit the short-term support/target of 1.3080 (printed a low of 1.3004 and traded sideways after the U.K parliament rejected PM May revised Brexit deal). Today, the parliament will vote on whether to allow for a further extension to the 29 Mar 2019 Brexit deadline or a hard Brexit where U.K will leave the EU without a deal on 29 Mar. Key short-term resistance for today will be at 1.3240 (yesterday, 12 Mar European session swing high + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the yesterday’s decline from 12 Mar 2019 high) for a further potential push down to retest 1.2950 (11 Mar 2019 swing low + ascending support from 03 Jan 2019). A break below 1.2950 reinforces a further slide towards the 14 Feb 2019 swing low area of 1.2800. However, a clearance above 1.3240 shall see another round of choppy push up towards the 1.3300/3350 key medium-term range resistance.
- USD/JPY – Trend bias: Down. No change, maintain bearish bias in any bounces below 111.60 key short-term resistance (former minor swing low areas of 05/07 Mar 2019 + Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster) for another round of potential push down to retest 110.75 and below it opens up scope for another minor downleg to target the next support at 110.30/110.00 (minor swing low areas of 15/27 Feb 2019 + ascending channel support from 03 Jan 2019 flash crash swing low area). However, a clearance above 111.60 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze back up to retest the 01/05 Mar 2019 swing high area of 112.10/20.
- AUD/USD – Trend bias: Push down within range. The pair has inched down lower as expected from the 0.7090 key short-term resistance as per highlighted in our previous report. It printed a high of 0.7091 in yesterday, 12 Mar European session before it retreated to print a current intraday low of 0.7049 in today, 13 Mar Asian session. No change, maintain bearish bias in any bounces below the 0.7090 key short-term resistance for a further potential slide to retest the 0.7020/0.7000 neckline support of the minor “Head & Shoulders” bearish reversal configuration in motion since 11 Jan 2019 swing high. A break below 0.7000 shall trigger a bearish breakdown for a further decline to target the next support at 0.6915/6870 (03 Jan 2019 flash crash swing low area + Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster). However, a clearance above 0.7090 negates the bearish tone for a further push up towards 0.7125 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous push down from 27 Feb 2019 high to 08 Mar 2019 low + minor congestion area of 27 Feb to 01 Mar 2019).
- NZD/USD - Trend bias: Push down within range. Yesterday’s push up to a high of 0.6872 has stalled right at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the previous slide from 26 Feb 2019 high to 08 Mar 2019 low. In today, Asian session, it has staged a breakdown below the minor ascending support from 08 Mar 2019 low. Thus, flip to a bearish bias below 0.6870 key short-term resistance for a further potential slide to retest the next near-term support at 0.6805/6790 (the minor congestion area of 06/09 Mar 2019). However, a clearance above 0.6870 negates the bearish tone for a push up to test 0.6900/6920 (the upper boundary of the medium-term “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration in motion since 08 Oct 2018 low).
StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.
No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.