Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Wed 10 Apr)

Further potential downside in GBP/USD & USD/JPY.

EUR/USD – Push up within range with 1.1285 as trigger

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  • Yesterday’s push up has been stalled at the 1.1285 level which is defined by the minor swing high area of 27 Mar 2019 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of recent slide from 20 Mar 2019 high to 02 Apr 2019 low. No change, maintain bullish bias with 1.1240 as the key short-term pivotal support and added 1.1285 as the upside trigger level to reinforce a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.1316/1325 (minor swing high area of 25/26 Mar 2019, 50% Fibonacci retracement of the slide from 20 Mar 2019 high to 02 Apr 2019 low & exit target potential of the “Inverse Head & Shoulders”).
  • However, failure to hold at 1.1240 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 07 Mar/02 Apr 2018 swing low areas of 1.1175.

GBP/USD – Push down within range in progress

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  • The push up from last Fri, 05 Apr low of 1.2985 has stalled right at the 1.3120 short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report (click here for a recap). Short-term technical elements remain negative. No change, maintain bearish bias with 1.3120 remains as the key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential push down to retest 1.2980/2960 minor range support in place since 11 Mar 2019. A break below it sees a further slide towards 1.2910/2890 next (Fibonacci expansion/retracement cluster).
  • However, a break above 1.3120 negates the bearish tone for a further squeeze up towards 1.3190 intermediate resistance (former ascending range support from 03 Jan 2019 low & minor descending trendline from 13 Mar 2019 high).

USD/JPY – Further push down

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  • Drifted lower as expected and almost hit the near-term support/target of 110.85 (printed a low of 110.95 in yesterday U.S. session. Short-term technical elements remain negative, maintain bearish bias in any bounces below tightened key short-term pivotal resistance at 111.50 (also the minor descending trendline from 05 Mar 2019 high) for a push down to retest 110.85 and below it opens up scope for a further potential slide to target the next near-term support at 110.50 (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rebound form 25 Mar 2019 low to 05 Apr 2019 high).
  • However, a break above 111.50 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards 111.80 and even 112.10 next.

AUD/USD – Sideways

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  • Staged the expected push up and hit the first near-term resistance/target of 0.7150 as per highlighted in our previous report before it drifted down.
  • Mix elements now as the shorter-term hourly RSI oscillator has broken below a significant corresponding ascending support at the 40 level which indicates that upside momentum has deteriorated.  Prefer to turn neutral now between 0.7150 and 0.7100. Only a break above 0.7150 sees a further potential push up towards the medium-term range resistance of 0.7180/7200.
  • On the flipside, a break below 0.7100 triggers a slide to retest the 0.7060 minor range support in place since 20 Mar 2019.

Charts are from eSignal

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