Market News & Analysis
Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Tues 19 Mar)
Kelvin Wong March 19, 2019 3:03 AM
FX – Mix bag, JPY strength intact & watch 1.1395/1.1400 resistance on EUR/USD
- EUR/USD – Trend bias: Residual push up within range before slide. The pair has continued its slow grind upwards within a range configuration since 12 Nov 2018 low of 1.1216 and it met the expected first short-term resistance target at 1.1360 yesterday, 18 Mar. Maintain bullish bias above a tightened key short-term support at 1.1315 (minor swing low of 16/18 Mar 2019 + close to the minor ascending trendline from 08 Mar 2019 low) for a potential residual push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.1395/1.1400 (01 Mar 2019 minor swing high area + medium-term descending trendline from 24 Sep 2018 high) before risk of another slide materialises. On the other hand, a break below 1.1315 sees the start of another slide towards its range support with the first potential pitstop at the 1.1270/1260 near-term support (50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going rebound from 08 Mar 2019 low to 18 Mar 2019 high.
- GBP/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. The pair has tested the lower limit of the short-term neutrality range at 1.3200 (printed an intraday low of 1.3180 in yesterday, 18 Mar late European session before an hourly close back above 1.3200 after the Speaker of the U.K parliament blocked PM May request for a 3rd Brexit deal vote). No change, maintain neutrality stance between 1.3350 and 1.3200. Only an hourly close below 1.3200 shall revive the push down within range scenario for a retest on the 1.3000/2950 support (11 Mar 2019 swing low + ascending support from 03 Jan 2019). However, a clearance with a daily close above 1.3350 opens up scope for a potential multi-week up move to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.3640/3710 in the first step. (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous decline from 17 Apr 2018 high to 03 Jan 2019 low + former swing low area of 01 Mar 2018.
- USD/JPY – Trend bias: Push down within range. The pair has continued to inch downwards post BOJ since last Fri, 15 Mar as expected. No change, maintain bearish bias below a tightened key short-term resistance now 111.70 (minor descending trendline from 02 Mar 2019 high + minor swing high area of 15 Mar 2019) for a further potential slide to retest 110.75 (minor swing low areas of 28 Feb/08 Mar 2019) and below it exposes 110.20/110.05 support next (the minor swing lows of 15/27 Feb 2019 + medium-term ascending channel support from 03 Jan 2019 flash crash low area). However, a clearance above 111.70 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze back up towards the 112.10/20 resistance (the former medium-term swing low areas of 20 Nov/06 Dec 2018).
- AUD/USD – Trend bias: Residual push up within minor bearish “Ascending Wedge”. The push down within range scenario as per highlighted in our previous has been invalidated through the break out from the 0.7100 short-term resistance. Based on its latest price action, the pair seems to be evolving within a minor “Ascending Wedge” range configuration in motion since 08 Mar 2019 low of 0.7002 and Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggest another potential push up within the “Ascending Wedge”. Flip to a bullish bias with key short-term support at 0.7070 (lower boundary of the “Ascending Wedge” for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 0.7150 (minor congestion area of 26/28 Feb 2019 + Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster) before a potential slide occurs to retest the 0.7020/0.7000 neckline support of the minor “Head & Shoulders” bearish reversal configuration in motion since 11 Jan 2019 swing high. However, a break below 0.7070 revives the bearish tone for the direct slide towards 0.7020/0.7000.
- NZD/USD - Trend bias: Push down within range. No change, 0.6870 remains the key short-term resistance for a potential slide to retest 0.6805 and an hourly close below it opens up scope for a further slide towards the next support at 0.6750/6730 (minor swing low areas of 06/08 Mar 2019 + lower boundary of the medium-term “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration in motion since 08 Oct 2018 low). However, a break above 0.6870 negates the bearish tone for a push up to test the next intermediate resistance at 0.6900/6920 (the upper boundary of the medium-term “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration in motion since 08 Oct 2018 low).
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