Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Tues 16 Apr)

EUR/USD eyeing 1.1350 medium-term range resistance before risk of minor correction.

EUR/USD – Residual push up within range

click to enlarge chart

  • Continued its push up as expected and met the near-term resistance/target of 1.1316/1325 as per highlighted in our previous report (click here for a recap). It printed a high of 1.1324 on last Fri, 12 Apr which also corresponded to the exit target of the recent minor “Inverse Head & Shoulders” reversal configuration bullish breakout seen on 08 Apr 2019.
  • Maintain bullish bias as supported by positive short-term momentum reading seen from the hourly Stochastic oscillator while it still shows further upside potential before it reaches an extreme overbought level 92. Tightened key short-term pivotal support to 1.1280 (former minor swing high areas of 09/11 Apr 2019 & the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 02 Apr 2019 low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.1340/1350 (medium-term descending resistance from 24 Sep 2018 high & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous slide from 20 Mar 2019 high to 02 Apr 2019 low).
  • Do be cautious as the expected push up may be the last leg before it reaches the aforementioned 1.1340/1350 descending resistance of a medium-term “Descending Triangle” in place since 12 Nov 2018 low where another round of slide may materialise based on Elliot Wave/fractal analysis. A break with an hourly close below 1.1280 shall invalidate the push up scenario for a slide towards 1.1245 before the range support of 1.1175.

GBP/USD – 1.3120 remains the key resistance to watch

click to enlarge chart

  • Continued to trade sideways below the 1.3120 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report. No major changes on its key short-term elements, maintain bearish bias and a break below the near-term support of 1.3065 (minor ascending trendline from 05 Apr 2019 low) is likely to reinforce a further potential push down to retest the 1.2980/2960 minor range support in place since 11 Mar 2019 in the first step.
  •  On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.3120 negates the bearish tone for a further push up towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.3190 (former ascending range support from 03 Jan 2019 low & minor descending trendline

USD/JPY – Further push up

click to enlarge chart

  • Broke above the 111.80 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone which validated a further up move. Flip to a bullish bias with 111.75 as the key short-term pivotal support (pull-back support for the former minor descending resistance from 05 Mar 2019 high & close to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the last push up seen from 10 Apr 2019 low to yesterday, 15 Apr high of 112.10) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 112.50 (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel in place since 25 Mar 2019 low & 0.76 Fibonacci expansion of up move from 25 Mar 2019 low to 05 Apr 2019 high projected from 10 Apr 2019 low).
  • On the other hand, a break below 111.75 negates the bullish tone for another round of slide to retest the 110.85 support.

AUD/USD – Mix elements

click to enlarge chart

  • Last Fri 15 Apr, it has probed into the key medium-term resistance zone of 0.7175/0.7200 (medium-term descending range resistance from 03 Dec 2018 high & swing high areas of 21/27 Feb 2019). It has traded sideways since yesterday, 15 Apr before it reintegrated back below the medium-term descending range resistance by a slide of 30 pips to print a current intraday low of 0.7140 after the release of RBA minutes that has indicated a discussion of interest rate cuts in the recent 02 Apr monetary policy meeting.
  • Mix elements now, prefer to turn neutral between 0.7200 and 0.7130 (minor ascending trendline support from 02 Apr 2019 low). A break below 0.7130 sees a further push down to retest the 0.7060 minor range support in place since 20 Mar 2019.
  • On the flipside, a clearance with an hourly close above 0.7200 opens up scope for a bullish range breakout to target the next intermediate resistance at 0.7290 (31 Jan/01 Feb 2019 swing high area) in the first step.

Charts are from eSignal

Build your confidence risk free
Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.