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Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Tues 16 Apr)

EUR/USD – Residual push up within range

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  • Continued its push up as expected and met the near-term resistance/target of 1.1316/1325 as per highlighted in our previous report (click here for a recap). It printed a high of 1.1324 on last Fri, 12 Apr which also corresponded to the exit target of the recent minor “Inverse Head & Shoulders” reversal configuration bullish breakout seen on 08 Apr 2019.
  • Maintain bullish bias as supported by positive short-term momentum reading seen from the hourly Stochastic oscillator while it still shows further upside potential before it reaches an extreme overbought level 92. Tightened key short-term pivotal support to 1.1280 (former minor swing high areas of 09/11 Apr 2019 & the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 02 Apr 2019 low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.1340/1350 (medium-term descending resistance from 24 Sep 2018 high & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous slide from 20 Mar 2019 high to 02 Apr 2019 low).
  • Do be cautious as the expected push up may be the last leg before it reaches the aforementioned 1.1340/1350 descending resistance of a medium-term “Descending Triangle” in place since 12 Nov 2018 low where another round of slide may materialise based on Elliot Wave/fractal analysis. A break with an hourly close below 1.1280 shall invalidate the push up scenario for a slide towards 1.1245 before the range support of 1.1175.

GBP/USD – 1.3120 remains the key resistance to watch

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  • Continued to trade sideways below the 1.3120 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report. No major changes on its key short-term elements, maintain bearish bias and a break below the near-term support of 1.3065 (minor ascending trendline from 05 Apr 2019 low) is likely to reinforce a further potential push down to retest the 1.2980/2960 minor range support in place since 11 Mar 2019 in the first step.
  •  On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.3120 negates the bearish tone for a further push up towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.3190 (former ascending range support from 03 Jan 2019 low & minor descending trendline

USD/JPY – Further push up

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  • Broke above the 111.80 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone which validated a further up move. Flip to a bullish bias with 111.75 as the key short-term pivotal support (pull-back support for the former minor descending resistance from 05 Mar 2019 high & close to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the last push up seen from 10 Apr 2019 low to yesterday, 15 Apr high of 112.10) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 112.50 (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel in place since 25 Mar 2019 low & 0.76 Fibonacci expansion of up move from 25 Mar 2019 low to 05 Apr 2019 high projected from 10 Apr 2019 low).
  • On the other hand, a break below 111.75 negates the bullish tone for another round of slide to retest the 110.85 support.

AUD/USD – Mix elements

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  • Last Fri 15 Apr, it has probed into the key medium-term resistance zone of 0.7175/0.7200 (medium-term descending range resistance from 03 Dec 2018 high & swing high areas of 21/27 Feb 2019). It has traded sideways since yesterday, 15 Apr before it reintegrated back below the medium-term descending range resistance by a slide of 30 pips to print a current intraday low of 0.7140 after the release of RBA minutes that has indicated a discussion of interest rate cuts in the recent 02 Apr monetary policy meeting.
  • Mix elements now, prefer to turn neutral between 0.7200 and 0.7130 (minor ascending trendline support from 02 Apr 2019 low). A break below 0.7130 sees a further push down to retest the 0.7060 minor range support in place since 20 Mar 2019.
  • On the flipside, a clearance with an hourly close above 0.7200 opens up scope for a bullish range breakout to target the next intermediate resistance at 0.7290 (31 Jan/01 Feb 2019 swing high area) in the first step.

Charts are from eSignal

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