Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Tues 14 May)

USD remains on support while USD/JPY potential residual push down towards 3-year major range support.

EUR/USD – 1.1260 remains the key resistance to watch


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  • Yesterday, the pair staged a push up of around 30 pips in the European session to test the 1.1260 key short-term pivotal resistance before retreated in the U.S. to give up its earlier gains (click here to recap our previous report). Interestingly, it ended yesterday, 15 May U.S. session with a bearish daily “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern. No change, maintain bearish bias with 1.1260 remains as the key short-term pivotal resistance and a break below 1.1200 (minor ascending support from 263 Apr 2019 low) reinforces a potential slide to retest 1.1120 in the first step.
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 1.1260 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further corrective push up towards the key 1.1320 medium-term resistance.  

GBP/USD – Push down within range in progress


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  • Drifted lower as expected and broke below last Fri, 10 May low of 1.2990. Short-term elements remain negative. Maintain bearish bias with a tightened key short-term pivotal resistance now at 1.3045 (minor swing high areas of 10/14 May 2019 & upper boundary of the minor descending channel from 13 Mar 2019) for a further potential push down towards the 25 Apr 2019 low of 1.2870 follow by 1.2800 next (lower boundary of the descending channel & Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster).
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 1.3090 invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.3190.

USD/JPY – Residual push down towards major/primary support


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  • Staged the bearish breakdown as expected from the minor “Pennant” range configuration as per highlighted in our previous report and almost met the support/target of 108.95 (printed a low of 108.99 in yesterday, 13 May U.S session.
  • Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggests a potential residual push down to target the 108.65 major support (also the primary ascending range support from Jun 2016 low) with a tightened key short-term pivotal resistance now at 109.65 before a corrective rebound materialises.
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 109.65 invalidates the residual push down scenario for a corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistance at 110.15 and even the key medium-term resistance zone of 110.90/111.10 (06 May 2019 gapped down, pull-back resistance of the former ascending support from 03 Jan 2019 flash crash swing low area & descending trendline from 24 Apr 2019 high).

AUD/USD – Further drop in progress


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  • Staged the bearish breakdown below the 0.6960 medium-term range support as expected. No change, maintain bearish bias with a tightened key short-term pivotal resistance now at 0.6990 (the upper boundary of the minor boundary of the minor descending channel from 17 Apr 2019 high & 61.8% retracement of the on-going slide from 10 May 2019 high to yesterday, 13 May low) for a further potential push down to target the next supports at 0.6910 and 0.6880.
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 0.6990 negates the bearish tone for squeeze up towards the minor range resistance 0.7045 formed after the recent RBA meeting on 07 May.

Charts are from eSignal



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