Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Tues 02 Apr)

USD remains on support.

EUR/USD – Start of a potential impulsive downleg


click to enlarge chart

  • Last Fri, 29 Mar, the pair has failed to stage a bullish break above the 1.1245 trigger level and broke below the 1.2220 key short-term pivotal support in yesterday, 01 Apr U.S. session. The minor corrective rebound scenario as per highlighted in our previous report has been invalidated (click here for a recap).
  • Elliot Wave/fractal analysis coupled with the hourly RSI oscillator that is not showing any signs of short-term downside momentum exhaustion yet, it is likely that the on-going decline from the 20 Mar 2019 post FOMC high is impulsive in nature any extend into a multi-week decline. Flip back to a bearish bias with 1.1255 as the key short-term pivotal resistance (minor swing high area of 28 Mar 2019 & 23.6% retracement of the on-going decline from 20 Mar 2019 high) for a further potential push down to target the next near-term supports at 1.1175/1155 and 1.1120.
  • On the other hand, a break above 1.1255 negates the bearish tone to revive the corrective rebound scenario for a squeeze up to retest the next intermediate resistance at 1.1330/1340.

GBP/USD – Further potential downside


click to enlarge chart

  • Pushed down and hit the expected near-term support/target of 1.2980/2960 on last Fri, 29 Mar U.S. session as per highlighted in our previous report. Technical elements remain bearish in the short-term where the yesterday’s rebound retreated right below the 1.3160 key short-term pivotal resistance (also close to the pull-back resistance of the former ascending range support from 03 Jan 2019 low).
  • The hourly RSI oscillator has broken below a significant ascending trendline support from 29 Mar 2019 which corresponds with the minor ascending trendline that is still supporting the price action. This observation suggests a revival of short-term downside momentum. Maintain bearish bias below the 1.3160 key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential push down to retest 1.2980/2960 before targeting the next near-term support at 1.2890.
  • On the other hand, a clearance above 1.3160 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the minor descending trendline from 13 Mar 2019 high now acting as a resistance at 1.3250.

USD/JPY – Sideways


click to enlarge chart

  • Broke above the 111.10 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report but yesterday squeezed up failed to have a clear break above the pull-back resistance of the former ascending channel support from the 03 Jan 2019 flash crash swing low.
  • Mix elements now, prefer to turn neutral between 111.70 and 110.85. Only an hourly close below 110.85 revives the bears for a potential slide back to retest 110.20 follow by 109.60 next.
  • On the flipside, a break above 111.70 sees a further push up towards the 05 Mar 2019 swing high area of 112.10.
AUD/USD – Push down within range


click to enlarge chart

  • Yesterday, 01 Apr rebound has managed to stall and staged a retreat from a minor descending trendline resistance in place since 21 Mar 2019 minor swing high. The hourly RSI oscillator remains bearish below a significant corresponding resistance at the 63 level. Flip back to a bearish bias below the 0.7150 key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential push down to retest the minor range support at 0.7060 and a break below it sees a further slide towards 0.7030.
  • On the other hand, a clearance above 0.7150 invalidates the bearish scenario sees a squeeze up to retest the 0.7200 medium-term range resistance.

Charts are from eSignal





Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

GAIN Capital UK Limited (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.