Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Tues 02 Apr)

USD remains on support.

EUR/USD – Start of a potential impulsive downleg

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  • Last Fri, 29 Mar, the pair has failed to stage a bullish break above the 1.1245 trigger level and broke below the 1.2220 key short-term pivotal support in yesterday, 01 Apr U.S. session. The minor corrective rebound scenario as per highlighted in our previous report has been invalidated (click here for a recap).
  • Elliot Wave/fractal analysis coupled with the hourly RSI oscillator that is not showing any signs of short-term downside momentum exhaustion yet, it is likely that the on-going decline from the 20 Mar 2019 post FOMC high is impulsive in nature any extend into a multi-week decline. Flip back to a bearish bias with 1.1255 as the key short-term pivotal resistance (minor swing high area of 28 Mar 2019 & 23.6% retracement of the on-going decline from 20 Mar 2019 high) for a further potential push down to target the next near-term supports at 1.1175/1155 and 1.1120.
  • On the other hand, a break above 1.1255 negates the bearish tone to revive the corrective rebound scenario for a squeeze up to retest the next intermediate resistance at 1.1330/1340.

GBP/USD – Further potential downside

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  • Pushed down and hit the expected near-term support/target of 1.2980/2960 on last Fri, 29 Mar U.S. session as per highlighted in our previous report. Technical elements remain bearish in the short-term where the yesterday’s rebound retreated right below the 1.3160 key short-term pivotal resistance (also close to the pull-back resistance of the former ascending range support from 03 Jan 2019 low).
  • The hourly RSI oscillator has broken below a significant ascending trendline support from 29 Mar 2019 which corresponds with the minor ascending trendline that is still supporting the price action. This observation suggests a revival of short-term downside momentum. Maintain bearish bias below the 1.3160 key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential push down to retest 1.2980/2960 before targeting the next near-term support at 1.2890.
  • On the other hand, a clearance above 1.3160 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the minor descending trendline from 13 Mar 2019 high now acting as a resistance at 1.3250.

USD/JPY – Sideways

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  • Broke above the 111.10 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report but yesterday squeezed up failed to have a clear break above the pull-back resistance of the former ascending channel support from the 03 Jan 2019 flash crash swing low.
  • Mix elements now, prefer to turn neutral between 111.70 and 110.85. Only an hourly close below 110.85 revives the bears for a potential slide back to retest 110.20 follow by 109.60 next.
  • On the flipside, a break above 111.70 sees a further push up towards the 05 Mar 2019 swing high area of 112.10.
AUD/USD – Push down within range

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  • Yesterday, 01 Apr rebound has managed to stall and staged a retreat from a minor descending trendline resistance in place since 21 Mar 2019 minor swing high. The hourly RSI oscillator remains bearish below a significant corresponding resistance at the 63 level. Flip back to a bearish bias below the 0.7150 key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential push down to retest the minor range support at 0.7060 and a break below it sees a further slide towards 0.7030.
  • On the other hand, a clearance above 0.7150 invalidates the bearish scenario sees a squeeze up to retest the 0.7200 medium-term range resistance.

Charts are from eSignal

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