Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 28 Mar)

Mix bag with further potential weakness in USD/JPY.

EUR/USD – Push up within medium-term range

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  • Drifted down lower as expected and almost met the near-term support/target at 1.1220 as per highlighted in our previous report (printed a low of 1.2240 in yesterday, 27 Mar U.S session). The 1-hour Stochastic oscillator has started to shape a bullish divergence signal at its oversold region (an indication of a slowdown in short-term downside momentum of price action coupled with a potential minor degree 5-wave down move completion (Elliot Wave/fractal analysis) from its 20 Mar 2019 high of 1.1448). Flip to a bullish bias with 1.1220 as key short-term pivotal support for a potential corrective rebound to target the intermediate resistances at 1.1280 and 1.1330/1340.
  • On the other hand, failure to hold at 1.1220 invalidates the corrective rebound scenario for a continuation of the slide towards 1.1175/1155.

GBP/USD - Push down within medium-term range

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  • Drifted down lower as expected and met the first near-term support/target of 1.3160. No change, maintain bearish bias below the 1.3250 key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential push down to target the significant support at 1.3080/3050 (ascending trendline that held previous slides since 03 Jan 2019).
  • On the other hand, a clearance above 1.3250 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the 1.3350 medium-term range resistance.

USD/JPY – Bears are still not out of the woods

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  • Challenged the 110.50 short-term pivotal resistance and reintegrated back below it in yesterday, 27 Mar European session. It printed a high of 110.70 that has coincided with a Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster coupled with weakness seen in its short-term price action momentum as indicated by the 1-hour RSI oscillator. Tolerate the excess, maintain the bearish bias with 110.70 as the key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential push down to target the next near-term support at 109.60 in the first step.
  • On the other hand, a clearance above 110.70 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further corrective rebound to retest the pull-back resistance of 110.95/111.10 (former ascending channel support from 03 Jan 2019).
AUD/USD - Sideways

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  • Drifted down as expected and hit the near-support/target of 0.7070. Mix elements now and coupled with further potential weakness in major stock indices. Prefer to turn neutral now between 0.7150 and 0.7060. Only a break below 0.7060 opens up scope for a further potential slide to retest the significant support area of 0.7000/0.6980 that has managed to hold previous drops since 26 Oct 2018.
  • On the flipside, a clearance above 0.7150 sees a squeeze up to retest the 0.7200 medium-term descending range resistance in place since 03 Dec 2018.

Charts are from eSignal

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