Market News & Analysis
Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 28 Feb)
Kelvin Wong February 28, 2019 3:15 AM
FX – Recent USD weakness starts to abate in EUR & GBP
- EUR/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. The pair has staged another attempt to break above 26 Feb 2018 swing high at 1.1400 in yesterday, 27 Feb European session but failed to make another breakthrough. It has ended the U.S. session with a daily “Bearish Harami” candlestick pattern which reduced our conviction for a further push up scenario towards the 1.1440 resistance. Thus, prefer to turn neutral now between 1.1400 and 1.1360 (yesterday, 27 Feb low + minor ascending channel support from 15 Feb 2019 low). A break below 1.1360 shall see a push down towards 1.1315/1285 support (minor swing low of 22 Feb 2019 + pull-back support of the former minor descending trendline from 08 Feb 2019 high. On the flipside, a break above 1.1400 sees a probe on 1.1440 (upper boundary of the medium-term descending triangle range configuration in motion since 13 Nov 2018 low of 1.1214 + upper boundary of a minor ascending channel from 15 Feb 2019 swing low + Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster).
- GBP/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. Challenged the upper limit of the neutrality zone of 1.3310 (it printed an intraday high of 1.3350 before it pull-backed below 1.3310 in yesterday, 27 Feb U.S. session). No conviction to advocate a further push up at this juncture due to the bearish divergences seen in both the 4 and 1-hour Stochastic oscillators at their respective overbought region. Thus, tolerate the excess and maintain neutrality stance between 1.3350 and 1.3210. A break below 1.3210 triggers a pull-back towards 1.3130/3090 (50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent push up from 22 Feb 2019 low to yesterday high of 1.3288 + ascending trendline from 14 Feb 2019 low + former minor swing high areas of 21/25 Feb 2019) before another potential upleg materialises. On the flipside, a clearance above 1.3350 shall rocket the bulls towards 1.3410 next (swing high area of 05 Jun 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 17 Apr 2018 high to 03 Jan 2019 low).
- USD/JPY – Trend bias: Push down within range. No change, maintain bearish bias below 111.20 key short-term resistance for a further potential push down to retest the 110.10/110.00 near-term support (former minor swing high areas of 23 Jan/04 Feb 2019 + minor ascending channel support from 03 Jan 2019 swing low area). On the flipside, a break above 111.20 sees the revival of bulls for another push up to probe 111.80 (former swing low areas of 15/26 Oct 2018) follow by 112.30 resistance (former swing low areas of 20 Nov/06 Dec 2018 + close to 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 12 Nov 2018 high to 03 Jan 2019 swing low area).
- AUD/USD – Trend bias: Push down within range. The pair has inched down lower as expected and broke below 0.7160 (downside trigger, the minor ascending trendline from 22 Feb 2019 low of 0.7067) to print a low of 0.7127 in yesterday, 27 Feb U.S. session. In today, 28 Feb Asian session, it staged a minor bounce to retest 0.7160 before it retreated down (printed a current intraday high of 0.7166). No change, maintain bearish bias below the 0.7200 key short-term resistance for a further potential push down to retest the 0.7080 near-term support in first step (the minor swing low areas of 14/22 Feb 2019). However, a break above 0.7200 negates the bullish tone for an extension of the corrective rebound to target the next resistance at 0.7250 (the descending trendline from 03 Dec 2018 high + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 31 Jan 2019 high to 12 Feb 2019 low).
- NZD/USD – Trend bias: Push down within range. Inched down lower as expected from the 0.6900/6920 key short-term resistance to print a current intraday low of 0.6833 in today, 28 Feb Asian session. No change, maintain bearish bias below 0.6900/6920 resistance(the upper boundary of the “symmetrical triangle” + Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster) for a further potential slide to retest 0.6756 and 0.6725 supports next. However, a break above 0.6920 invalidates the push down scenario for a squeeze up to retest 0.6970 (04 Dec 2018 swing high) in the first step. Above 0.6970 opens up scope for a further potential up move to target the next resistance at 0.7050 (swing high area of 06 Jun 2018 + medium-term descending trendline from 27 Jul 2017 high).
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