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Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 21 Feb)

FX – Mix bag, watch the 0.7200/7210 resistance on AUD/USD

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push up within range. Pushed up and almost hit the first short-term resistance/target at 1.1375 as per highlighted in the previous report (printed a high of 1.1370 in yesterday, 20 Feb U.S. session) before it inched backed now towards the key short-term support at 1.1320. No change, maintain bullish bias above 1.1320 key short-term support for another round of potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.1400. However, failure to hold at 1.1320 sees another round of choppy slide to retest 19 Feb 2019 swing low area of 1.1270.
  • GBP/USD – Trend bias: Push up within range. Traded sideways with an intraday high of 1.3109 printed in yesterday, 20 Feb U.S. session. No change, maintain bullish bias above the 1.2970 (the pull-back support of the former descending trendline from 26 Jan 2019 high + former minor swing high area 07/08 Feb 2019) for a further potential push up to retest the 26 Jan 2019 swing high area of 1.3200/3220. However, failure to hold at 1.2970 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 19 Feb 2019 minor swing low of 1.2890.
  • USD/JPY – Trend bias: Push up within range. Managed to hold the 110.55 key short-term support the minor ascending trendline from 09 Feb 2019 swing low + former minor swing high area of 15 Feb 2019). No change, maintain bullish bias for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistances at 111.10 and 111.40. However, failure to hold at 110.55 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest the next support at 110.00/109.90 (former swing high areas of 19 Jan/07 Feb 2019).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Push down within range. Squeezed up above 0.7170 after better than expected Jan AU jobs data, stalled at 0.7200 area (61.8% retracement of the recent slide from 31 Jan 2019 high to 12 Feb 2019 low + former minor swing high areas of 11/18 Jan 2019 that the price action had reintegrated back below it on 06 Feb 2019/failure bullish breakout on 31 Jan 2019) before it reversed back down below 0.7170 after the release of a Wespac research report that stated an expectation of two RBA rate cuts in 2019. Overall, the pair is still evolving within a minor bearish “Head & Shoulders” configuration in place since 11 Jan 2019 with a potential top of the “right Shoulder” at the 0.7200 area. Key short-term resistance for today will be at 0.7210 (taking into account of today, Asian session current intraday high) and added 0.7120 as the downside trigger level (the lower boundary of a minor ascending range from 12 Feb 2019 low). An hourly close below 0.7120 reinforces the potential push down scenario to target the next near-term support at 0.7085 follow by the neckline support of the “Head & Shoulders at 0.7060/7040. However, a break above 0.7210 invalidates the bearish scenario for another shot to test 0.7295 swing high of 31 Jan 2019.
  • NZD/USD – Trend bias: Push down within range. No change, key short-term resistance remains at 0.6900 for a potential push down to retest the near-term supports of 0.6800 and 0.6725. However, a break above 0.6800 sees a squeeze up to retest 0.6970 (04 Dec 2018 swing high).               

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