Market News & Analysis

Top Story

Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 11 Apr)

EUR/USD – Push up within range with 1.1285 remains as upside trigger


click to enlarge chart

  • Managed to hold the 1.1240 key short-term pivotal support (also the former neckline resistance of the minor “Inverse Head & Shoulders” bullish reversal configuration) post ECB and staged the expected rebound as per highlighted in our previous report (click here for a recap).
  • No major changes on its short-term key elements. Maintain bullish bias with 1.1285 as the upside trigger level and an hourly close above it reinforces a further push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.1316/1325 (minor swing high area of 25/26 Mar 2019, 50% Fibonacci retracement of the slide from 20 Mar 2019 high to 02 Apr 2019 low & exit target potential of the “Inverse Head & Shoulders”).
  • On the other hand, an hourly close below 1.1240 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 07 Mar/02 Apr 2018 swing low areas of 1.1175.

GBP/USD – 1.3120 remains the key resistance to watch


click to enlarge chart

  • Yesterday’s push up has been rejected by the 1.3120 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous amid the conclusion of the U.K/EU summit to offer an extension of the Brexit deadline to end Oct 2019. No change, maintain bearish bias within a range trading environment and a break below the minor ascending trendline in place since last Fri, 05 Apr low now acting as a support at 1.3070 reinforces the potential drop to retest the 1.2980/2960 minor range support in place since 11 Mar 2019 in the first step.
  • On the other hand, a break with an hourly close above 1.3120 negates the bearish tone for a further push up towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.3190 (former ascending range support from 03 Jan 2019 low & minor descending trendline from 13 Mar 2019 high).
USD/JPY – Further push down in progress


click to enlarge chart

  • Staged the expected slide and hit the first near-term support/target of 110.85 as per highlighted in our previous report before it staged a bounce of 30 pips to print a current intraday high of 111.13 in today, Asian session. The short-term hourly Stochastic oscillator is now coming close to an extreme overbought level which increases the risk of another minor downleg in price action.
  • Maintain bearish bias with a tightened key short-term pivotal resistance now at 111.30 (minor descending trendline from 05 Apr 2019 high & 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 05 Apr 2019 high to yesterday, 10 Apr low of 110.81) for a slide to retest 110.85 and an hourly close below it reinforces a further potential drop to target 110.50 next (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rebound form 25 Mar 2019 low to 05 Apr 2019 high).
  • On the other hand, a break above 111.30 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards 111.80 and even 112.10 next.

AUD/USD – Risk of minor downside reversal at medium-term range resistance


click to enlarge chart

  • Broke above the 0.7150 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone as per highlighted in our previous report and it almost met the next resistance at 0.7180 (printed a high of 0.7175 in yesterday, 10 Apr U.S. session). Right now, it is hovering right below a significant resistance zone of 0.7180/7200 (the medium-term descending range resistance from 03 Dec 2018 high, swing high area of 21 Feb 2019 & a Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster) coupled with the shorter-term hourly RSI oscillator that has started to inch down from its extreme overbought level.
  • Flip to a bearish bias with 0.7200 as the key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential push down to test 0.7130 and a break below it reinforces a further slide towards the 0.7060 minor range support in place since 20 Mar 2019 in the first step.
  • On the other hand, a clearance above 0.7200 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.7290 (31 Jan/01 Feb 2019 swing high area).

Charts are from eSignal






Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

From time to time, GAIN Capital Limited’s (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.