Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 04 Apr)

USD short-term weakness.

EUR/USD – Mix elements


click to enlarge chart

  • Yesterday, it has staged a bounce of 52 pips to challenge the 1.1245 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report (click here for a recap). It printed a high of 1.1254 before it inched back below 1.1245 and traded sideways.
  • Mix elements as it ended yesterday, 03 Apr U.S. session with a bullish daily “Morning Doji Start” candlestick pattern right at the 1.1175 support. Prefer to turn neutral now between 1.1250 and 1.1210. Only an hourly close below 1.1210 revives the bearish tone for a potential downleg to retest 1.1175 before targeting the next near-term support at 1.115.
  • On the flipside, an hourly close above 1.1250 opens up scope for a minor corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.1330/1340 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire slid from 20 Mar 2019 high to 02 Apr 2019 low & minor swing high area of 25 Mar 2019).

GBP/USD – Push up within range


click to enlarge chart

  • Broke above the 1.3160 key short-term pivotal resistance and reintegrated back above the ascending range support from 03 Jan 2019 low. The “push down within range” scenario has been invalidated. Flip to a bullish bias now with 1.3130 as the key short-term pivotal support (also yesterday, 02 Apr U.S. session swing low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.3250 (minor descending trendline from 13 Mar 2019 high & minor swing high areas of 26/28 Mar 2019).
  • On the other hand, a break below 1.3130 sees a push down towards 1.3020 (02 Apr 2019 minor swing low area & minor ascending support from 29 Mar 2019 low).

USD/JPY – Sideways


click to enlarge chart

  • No change, maintain neutrality stance between 111.70 and 111.20. Only an hourly close below 111.20 is likely to trigger a slide to retest the next near-term supports at 110.85 and 110.30.
  • On the flipside, a break above 111.70 sees a further push up towards the 05 Mar 2019 swing high area of 112.10.

AUD/USD – Push up within range


click to enlarge chart

  • Broke above the 0.7115 short-term pivotal resistance and the upper boundary of the minor “Descending Triangle” range configuration in place since 21 Mar 2019 high. The “push down within range” scenario as per highlighted in our previous report has been invalidated.
  • Flip to a bullish bias with 0.7105 as key short-term pivotal support (also close to the pull-back of the former minor “Descending Triangle” range resistance) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistances at 0.7150 and 0.7180 (medium-term descending range resistance from 03 Dec 2018 high & 0.764 Fibonacci projection of the bounce from 08 Mar 2019 low to 21 Mar 2019 high projected from 02 Apr 2019 low).
  • On the other hand, failure to hold at 0.7105 sees another slide to retest the 0.7060 minor range support.

Charts are from eSignal



AUD/USD – Push up within range







Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

GAIN Capital UK Limited (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.