Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Fri 29 Mar)

EUR/USD remains at risk of a corrective bounce with further weakness in GBP/USD.

EUR/USD – Push up within medium-term range

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  • The pair has managed to hold at the 1.1220 key short-term pivotal support as per highlighted in our previous report (click here for a recap). No change, maintain bullish bias and added 1.1245 as trigger level. A break above 1.1245 reinforces the potential corrective rebound to target the intermediate resistances at 1.1280 and 1.1330/1340 (also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 20 Mar 2019 high to 28 Mar 2019 low).
  • However, an hourly close below 1.1220 invalidates the corrective rebound scenario for a continuation of the slide towards the next near-term support at 1.1175/1155.

GBP/USD – Broke below significant ascending range support

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  • Shaped the expected drop and hit the next near-term support/target of 1.3080/3050 as per highlighted in our previous report. It has also broken below a significant ascending range support that has held previous drops since 03 Jan 2019. Maintain bearish bias with 1.3160 as the key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential push down to target the next near-term support at 1.2980/2960 (minor swing low area of 11 Mar 2019 & 0.764 Fibonacci expansion of the slide from 13 Mar 2019 high to 21 Mar 2019 low projected from 28 Mar 2019 high).
  • However, a clearance above 1.3160 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the minor descending trendline from 13 Mar 2019 high now acting as a resistance at 1.3250.

USD/JPY – 110.95/111.10 is the key resistance to watch

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  • Pushed up higher towards a significant resistance zone at 110.95/111.10 (former ascending channel support from 03 Jan 2019 flash crash low area & Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster) coupled with a bearish divergence seen in the 1-hour RSI oscillator at its overbought zone.
  • Maintain bearish bias with 111.10 as the key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential slide down to retest 110.10 and below it exposes the next near-term support at 109.60.
  • However, a clearance above 111.10 invalidates the bearish scenario for another round of squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 111.70 (descending trendline from 05 Mar 2019 high).

AUD/USD - Sideways

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  • No change, maintain neutrality stance with an adjusted upper limit at 0.7110 and lower limit remains at 0.7060. Only a break below 0.7060 opens up scope for a further potential slide to retest the significant support area of 0.7000/0.6980 that has managed to hold previous drops since 26 Oct 2018.
  • On the flipside, a break above 0.7110 sees a further push up towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.7160 (minor descending trendline from 21 Feb 2019 high)

Charts are from eSignal

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