Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Fri 22 Mar)

Mix bag with further potential bounce in GBP/USD

FX – Mix bag, watch GBP/USD key support at 1.3000

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. Yesterday, the pair has pull-backed more than expected and broke below the 1.1380 key short-term support. It also reintegrated back below the medium-term descending trendline resistance from 24 Sep 2018 high that broke above after FOMC announcement on 20 Mar. Mix elements now, prefer to turn neutral between 1.1340 (yesterday, 21 Mar U.S. session low) and 1.1400 (Fibonacci expansion/retracement cluster + medium-term descending trendline resistance from 24 Sep 2018 high). A break with an hourly close above 1.1400 is likely to revive the potential push up scenario to retest 20 Mar U.S. session swing high of 1.1448 before targeting the next intermediate resistance at 1.1515 (30 Jan 2019 swing high + Fibonacci expansion cluster). On the flipside, a break below 1.1340 opens up scope for a further slide towards the next near-term support at 1.1300/1.1280 (minor congestion area of 13/14 Mar 2019 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rebound from 08 Mar 2019 low to 21 Mar 2019 high).
  • GBP/USD – Trend bias: Push up within range. The pair has staged the expected drop and hit the 1.3050/3000 support/target as per highlighted in our previous report. The pair has managed to stage a 130 pips rebound from 1.3000 which is also the significant ascending trendline from 03 Jan 2019 that has stalled previous drop. Flip to a bullish bias with key support at 1.3000 for a potential push up to target 1.1320 and 1.3280/3300 (the minor descending trendline from 14 Mar 2019 high + 19 Mar 2019 minor swing high area). However, failure to hold at 1.3000 opens up scope for a further drop towards 1.2800 (14 Feb 2019 swing low + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rebound from 03 Jan 2019 low to 13 Mar 2019 high).
  • USD/JPY – Trend bias: Sideways. The pair has pushed down as expected and almost hit the 110.25/110.05 support/target. It printed a low of 110.27 in yesterday, 21 Mar U.S. session and ended the day with a “Hammer-liked” candlestick pattern at the close of the U.S. session. Recall that 110.25/110.05 support coincides with a significant ascending channel support in place since the 03 Jan 2019 flash crash low area of 03 Jan 2019). Mix elements now, prefer to turn neutral between 110.95 and 110.25. A break above 110.95 sees a push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 111.30 (former minor range support from 08 Mar 2019 low). On the flipside, failure to hold at 110.25 opens up scope for a further slide towards 110.05 and 109.60 (minor swing low areas of 06/07 Mar 2019).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. The pair has staged a pull-back from 21 Mar minor swing high of 0.7168 and managed to hold at the 0.7100 key short-term support as per highlighted in our previous report. It ended yesterday, 21 Mar U.S. session with a daily “Spinning Top” candlestick pattern that has tampered our “push up within range view”. Thus, prefer to turn neutral now between 0.7100 and 0.7150 (former minor swing high of 20 Mar 2019 + 76.4% Fiboancci retracement of the yesterday’s pull-back). An hourly close above 0.7150 revives the push up scenario towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.7200 (the medium-term descending trendline in place since 03 Dec 2018 + 21/27 Feb 2019 swing high areas). On the flipside, a break with an hourly close below 0.7100 sees a further push down towards the next near-term support at 0.7050 (minor swing low areas of 13/14 Mar 2019).
  • NZD/USD - Trend bias: Sideways. The pair has ended yesterday, 21 Mar U.S session with a close of 0.6880 that is below the upper boundary of the medium-term “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration in place since 04 Dec 2018 high after an initial intraday bullish breakout. Mix bag now, prefer to turn neutral between 0.6870 and 0.6920 (the upper boundary of the medium-term “Symmetrical Triangle” + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of yesterday’s pull-back). An hourly close back above 0.6920 revives the push up scenario to target the 0.6970 (04 Dec 2018 swing high) and 0.7025 (major descending trendline resistance from 27 Jul 2017 high + 07 Jun 2018 swing high). On the flipside, failure to hold at 0.6870 (an hourly close below it) sees a further slide to retest the next near-term support at 0.6805 (minor swing low of 14 Mar 2019).                            

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