Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Fri 05 Apr)

Mix bag with AUD strength and JPY weakness reinforce by U.S/China trade deal optimism.

EUR/USD – Push up within range


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  • Drifted down lower and tested the lower limit of the short-term neutrality range at 1.1210 (printed a low of 1.1205 in yesterday, 04 Apr European session before an hourly close backed above 1.1210) as per highlighted in our previous report (click here for a recap). Short-term technical elements have turned positive; where the price action has traced out a minor “Inverse Head & Shoulders” bullish reversal configuration coupled with a revival in upside momentum as indicated by the hourly RSI oscillator.
  • Flip to a bullish bias with 1.1210/1200 as the key short-term pivotal support (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rebound from 02 Apr 2019 low to 03 Apr 2019 high) and a break above 1.1250 (neckline of the “Inverse Head & Shoulders”) is likely to reinforce a potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.1316/1325 (minor swing high area of 25/26 Mar 2019, 50% Fibonacci retracement of the slide from 20 Mar 2019 high to 02 Apr 2019 low & exit target potential of the “Inverse Head & Shoulders”).
  • However, failure to hold at 1.1210/1200 invalidates the bullish scenario for a push down to rest 1.1175 support and even 1.1155 next.

GBP/USD – Sideways


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  • Broke below the 1.3130 short-term pivotal support and invalidated the “push up within range” scenario. Mix elements now as the yesterday’s slide has occurred at the former ascending range support from 03 Jan 2019 low. Right now, it is resting right at a minor ascending trendline from 29 Mar 2019 low now action as a support at 1.3060 coupled with the hourly RSI oscillator that has just exited from its oversold region.
  • Prefer to turn neutral now between 1.3060 and 1.3130 where an hourly close below 1.3060 is likely to see a slide to retest the 1.2980/2960 (11/29 Mar swing low areas).
  • On the flipside, a break above 1.3130 sees a push up to retest 1.3190.

USD/JPY – Further potential push up


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  • Reintegrated back above the ascending channel support from 03 Jan 2019 flash crash swing low area and an hourly close (today’s Asian session) above the 111.70 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone as per highlighted in our previous report. In addition, the hourly RSI oscillator remains bullish and has not reached an extreme overbought reading at the 80 level.
  • Flip to a bullish bias with 111.30 as the key short-term pivotal support for a further potential push up to challenge the 05 Mar 2019 swing high area of 112.10. However, failure to hold at 111.30 negates the bullish tone for a slide back towards the 110.85/60 near-term supports (also the minor ascending trendline from 25 Mar 2019 low).

AUD/USD – Push up within range

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  • Challenged and rebounded right at the 0.7105 short-term pivotal support as per highlighted in our previous report (printed a low of 0.7095 in yesterday, 04 Apr U.S. session before it staged the rebound). No change in short-term technical elements, tolerate the excess and maintain bullish bias with 0.7105/(7095-excess) as the key short-term pivotal support for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistances at 0.7150 and 0.7180 (medium-term descending range resistance from 03 Dec 2018 high & 0.764 Fibonacci projection of the bounce from 08 Mar 2019 low to 21 Mar 2019 high projected from 02 Apr 2019 low).
  • However, a break below 0.7095 negates the bullish tone for a slide to retest the 0.7060 minor range support.

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