Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Fri 03 May)

USD remains on support for further potential push up ahead of NFP.

EUR/USD – Further potential downleg in progress

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  • Inched down lower as expected and broke below the minor ascending support from 26 Apr 2019 low now turns pull-back resistance at 1.1200. Click here for recap on our previous report. Maintain bearish bias in any bounces with 1.1260 remains as the key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential push down to retest 1.1120 and below exposes 1.1060/1040 next (Fibonacci expansion & lower boundary of descending channel from 20 Mar 2019 high).
  • However, an hourly close above 1.1260 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further corrective push up towards the key 1.1320 medium-term resistance.   

GBP/USD – 1.3130 remains the key resistance to watch

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  • The hourly RSI oscillator has staged a bearish breakdown from a significant corresponding ascending support (similar with the price action support seen in the pair in place since 25 Apr 2019 low).  This observation suggests a bearish pre signal in anticipation of a bearish breakdown in price action via the momentum factor. Maintain bearish bias below the 1.3130 key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential push down to target the near-term support of 1.2960 follow by the 25 Apr 2019 swing low of 1.2870.
  • However, an hourly close above 1.3130 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further push up towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.3260 (28 Mar 2019 minor swing high area & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire slide from 13 Mar 2018 high to 25 Apr 2019 low.

USD/JPY – Potential push up within range

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  • No change, 110.85 remains the key short-term pivotal support to watch for a potential push up to retest the 112.10 range resistance in place since 01 Mar 2019.
  • However, an hourly close below 110.85 sees a continuation of the slide towards the next support at 109.75.

AUD/USD – Vulnerable for a breakdown below 0.6980 after bounce

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  • Drifted down lower as expected and it is now coming close to the 0.6980 medium-term range support/target as per highlighted in our previous report. The hourly Stochastic oscillator is now reaching an extreme oversold level with Elliot Wave/fractal analysis that advocates the risk of a minor bounce. Maintain bearish bias in any bounces with a tightened key short-term pivotal resistance now at 0.7035 (upper boundary of the descending channel from 17 Apr 2019 high & Fibonacci retracement cluster) for another potential downleg to target the next near-term support at 0.6920 next (also the lower boundary of the minor descending channel from 17 Apr 2019 high & Fibonacci expansion).
  • However, an hourly close above 0.7035 negates the bearish tone for a further push up to retest 30 Apr 2019 swing high of 0.7070.

Charts are from eSignal

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