Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Fri 03 May)

USD remains on support for further potential push up ahead of NFP.

EUR/USD – Further potential downleg in progress


click to enlarge chart

  • Inched down lower as expected and broke below the minor ascending support from 26 Apr 2019 low now turns pull-back resistance at 1.1200. Click here for recap on our previous report. Maintain bearish bias in any bounces with 1.1260 remains as the key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential push down to retest 1.1120 and below exposes 1.1060/1040 next (Fibonacci expansion & lower boundary of descending channel from 20 Mar 2019 high).
  • However, an hourly close above 1.1260 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further corrective push up towards the key 1.1320 medium-term resistance.   

GBP/USD – 1.3130 remains the key resistance to watch


click to enlarge chart

  • The hourly RSI oscillator has staged a bearish breakdown from a significant corresponding ascending support (similar with the price action support seen in the pair in place since 25 Apr 2019 low).  This observation suggests a bearish pre signal in anticipation of a bearish breakdown in price action via the momentum factor. Maintain bearish bias below the 1.3130 key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential push down to target the near-term support of 1.2960 follow by the 25 Apr 2019 swing low of 1.2870.
  • However, an hourly close above 1.3130 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further push up towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.3260 (28 Mar 2019 minor swing high area & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire slide from 13 Mar 2018 high to 25 Apr 2019 low.

USD/JPY – Potential push up within range


click to enlarge chart

  • No change, 110.85 remains the key short-term pivotal support to watch for a potential push up to retest the 112.10 range resistance in place since 01 Mar 2019.
  • However, an hourly close below 110.85 sees a continuation of the slide towards the next support at 109.75.

AUD/USD – Vulnerable for a breakdown below 0.6980 after bounce


click to enlarge chart

  • Drifted down lower as expected and it is now coming close to the 0.6980 medium-term range support/target as per highlighted in our previous report. The hourly Stochastic oscillator is now reaching an extreme oversold level with Elliot Wave/fractal analysis that advocates the risk of a minor bounce. Maintain bearish bias in any bounces with a tightened key short-term pivotal resistance now at 0.7035 (upper boundary of the descending channel from 17 Apr 2019 high & Fibonacci retracement cluster) for another potential downleg to target the next near-term support at 0.6920 next (also the lower boundary of the minor descending channel from 17 Apr 2019 high & Fibonacci expansion).
  • However, an hourly close above 0.7035 negates the bearish tone for a further push up to retest 30 Apr 2019 swing high of 0.7070.

Charts are from eSignal






Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

GAIN Capital UK Limited (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.