Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Fri 01 Mar)

USD remains on support, USD/JPY squeezed up, watch 111.80 resistance.

FX – USD remains on support

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. The pair probed the 1.1400 level again (printed an intraday high of 1.1420 in yesterday, 28 Feb European session) before it reversed its gains to trade back below 1.1400 and ended the U.S. session with a bearish daily “Gravestone Doji” candlestick. Maintain the neutrality stance with an adjusted range at 1.1440 (upper boundary of the medium-term descending triangle range configuration in motion since 13 Nov 2018 low of 1.1214 + Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster) to 1.1360. A break below 1.1360 shall see a push down towards 1.1315/1285 support (minor swing low of 22 Feb 2019 + pull-back support of the former minor descending trendline from 08 Feb 2019 high. On the flipside, a clearance above 1.1440 revives the bulls for a further potential push up towards the 09 Jan 2019 swing area of 1.1560 in the first step.
  • GBP/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 1.3350 and 1.3210. A break below 1.3210 triggers a pull-back towards 1.3110/3090 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent push up from 22 Feb 2019 low to 27 Feb 2019 high + ascending trendline from 14 Feb 2019 low + former minor swing high areas of 21/25 Feb 2019) before another potential upleg materialises. On the flipside, a clearance above 1.3350 shall rocket the bulls towards 1.3410 next (swing high area of 05 Jun 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 17 Apr 2018 high to 03 Jan 2019 low).
  • USD/JPY – Trend bias: Sideways. The pair broke above the 111.20 key short-term resistance that has invalidated the push down within range scenario. It rallied and hit the first alternative scenario target/resistance at 111.80 (printed a current intraday high of 111.77 in today, 01 Mar Asian session). The 4-hour Stochastic oscillator has reached an extreme overbought level coupled with a bearish divergence signal seen in the 1-hour Stochastic oscillator. Thus, prefer to be neutral at this juncture between 111.80 and 111.10. A reintegration back below 111.10 reverses the bullish tone for a potential slide to retest the minor range support of 110.35/25 (15/27 Feb 2019). On the flipside, a clearance above 111.80 sees a further up move target the next resistance at 112.50 (the former swing low areas of 20 Nov/06 Dec 2018).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Push down within range. The pair has continued to inch lower as expected and almost hit the target/support at 0.7080 (printed a current intraday low of 0.7085 in today, 01 Mar Asian session). No clear signs of bullish reversal yet, maintain bearish bias with an adjusted/tightened key short-term resistance now at 0.7130 (the minor descending trendline from 27 Feb 2019 high + former minor swing low areas of 27/28 Feb 2019) for further push down to target the 0.7030/7020 neckline support of a minor bearish reversal “Head & Shoulders” configuration in motion since 11 Jan 2019 swing high. On the flipside, a clearance above 0.7130 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the 0.7160 and 0.7200 resistances.
  • NZD/USD – Trend bias: Push down within range. Continued to inch lower as expected within its “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration in motion since 04 Dec 2018 swing high. No change, maintain bearish bias with an adjusted/tightened key short-term resistance now at 0.6850 (minor swing high area of 28 Feb 2019) for a further potential slide to retest 0.6756 and 0.6725 supports next in the first step. On the flipside, a break above 0.6850 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the “Symmetrical Triangle” range resistance at 0.6900/6920

Build your confidence risk free
Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.