Daily FX & Stock Indices Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 24 Jan)

USD weakness against EUR & GBP while stock indices face further downside pressure.

FX –  USD weakness against EUR, GBP

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push up within range configuration in progress.  Based on our previous report, the pair has indeed staged the expected bullish breakout from its minor bullish “Descending Wedge” configuration seen in the hourly chart in place since 18 Jan 2019 high after a bounce from the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending range configuration in place since 12 Nov 2018 low acting as support at 1.1335.  No change, maintain bullish bias with a tightened key short-term support now at 1.1365 (the pull-back support of the former minor “Descending Wedge” range resistance + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of yesterday’s push up from  1.1349 low to 1.1394 U.S. session high) for a further potential rebound to target the next intermediate resistances at 1.1420 and 1.1450 (38.2%/50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 10 Jan 2019 high to 22 Jan 2019 low + minor swing high areas of  15/16 Jan 2019). However, failure to hold at 1.1365 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending range configuration at 1.1345/1335.
  • GBP/USD – Trend bias: Push up within range configuration. The pair has staged a bullish breakout above the 1.3000 psychological l level (also the upper limit of a former complex descending range configuration in place since 20 Sep 2018 high) reinforced the increased probability of an extension of 29 Mar 2019 Brexit deadline agreed by U.K. and EU. Flip to a bullish bias in any dips above 1.2930 key short-term support (minor ascending trendline from 03 Jan 2019 low + close to the pull-back support of the former complex descending range resistance + Fibonacci retracement cluster) for further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.3300/3400 (20 Sep 2018 swing high + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous decline from 17 Apr 2018 high to 03 Jan 2019 low) within a longer-term sideways range configuration in place since Oct 2016 low of 1.1950. However failure to hold at 1.2930 negates the bullish tone for a reintegration back into the descending range from 20 Sep 2018 high to retest the near-term supports at  1.2800 and  1.2700/2670 ( minor swing low areas of 09/16 Jan 2019).
  • USD/JPY – Trend bias: Push up within range configuration. Trade sideways above the  109.10 key short-term support (22 Jan U.S. session low +  minor ascending channel support from 03 Jan 2019 swing low). No change, maintain bullish bias with 109.10 remains as the key short-term support and added 110.00 as a upside trigger level (yesterday, 23 Jan swing high) to reinforce another round of potential upleg to target the 111.10/40 (swing high area of 26 Dec 2018 + Fibonacci expansion/retracement cluster + minor ascending channel resistance). However, failure to hold at 109.10 invalidates the bullish scenario for a slide to retest the 108.00/107.80 minor swing low areas of 10/14 Jan 2019.
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Down. Challenged the predefined key short-term resistance at 0.7155 as per highlighted in yesterday report after the release of better than expected AU job data release for Dec in today’s early Asian session (21.6K versus 16.5K consensus) before it reversed down to print a current intraday low of 0.7120. No change, maintain bearish bias and tolerate the excess to 0.7167 (today’s current intraday high) for a further potential push down to the next near-term supports at  0.7060 and 0.7015/7000 (50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rebound from the 03 Jan 2019 swing low area to 11 Jan 2019 high and the former minor congestion zone of 27 Dec 2018/02 Jan 2019). On the other hand, a clearance above 0.7155/7167 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards 0.7200 (the minor swing high area of 18 Jan 2019).
  • NZD/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. Mix elements prevail. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 0.6800 and 0.6700. A break below 0.6700 opens up scope for a further slide to test 0.6635 major ascending trendline support in place since 05 Oct 2018 low. On the flipside, a break above 0.6800 sees a further push up towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.6840/6870 (minor swing high areas of 15 Jan 2019/18 Dec 2018 + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 04 Dec 2018 high to 03 Jan 2019 low) and the 04 Dec 2018 swing high area of 0.6940/6970.
Stock Indices (CFD) – Further downside remains intact
  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Down. The rebound that occurred at the start of yesterday’s 23 Jan U.S managed to stall right at the predefined 2650 key short-term resistance as per highlighted in our previous report before it reversed down and hit a low of 2613 (2 points away from our first target/support of 2610). Thereafter, it retraced 76.4 % of yesterday’s minor bearish reversal from 2653 intraday high to 2613 intraday low to print a current intraday high of 2645 in today, 24 Jan Asian session). No change, maintain bearish bias with 2650 remains as the key short-term resistance for a further potential decline towards the next near-term support at 2610 (Fibonacci expansion cluster) follow by the medium-term lower neutrality zone limit at 2600. However, an hourly close above 2650 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up to retest 18 Jan 2019 swing high area of  2675.
  • Japan 225 – Trend bias: Down. No change, maintain bearish bias below 20725 key short-term resistance (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 19 Jan 2019 high to 22 Jan 2019, U.S. session low of 20350 + former minor swing low area of 21 Jan 2019) for a further potential decline to retest 20350 before targeting the next support at 20100 (the lower limit of the medium-term neutrality zone) However, an hourly close above 20725 invalidates the bearish scenario for a push up to retest 18 Jan 2019 high at 20950 and even the upper limit of the medium-term neutrality zone at 21020.
  • Hong Kong 50 - Trend bias: Down. No change, maintain bearish bias below 27275 key short-term resistance (the pull-back resistance of the former minor “Ascending Wedge” support + minor swing high of 22 Jan 2019) for a further potential push down to target the next support at 26740/700 (former minor swing high area of 11 Jan 2019 + the lower limit of the medium-term neutrality zone). However, an hourly close above 27275 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up to retest 18 Jan 2019 swing high of 27366 follow by the major key resistance at 28000. Click here for details as per highlighted in our latest weekly technical outlook
  • Australia 200  - Trend bias: Down. No change, maintain bearish bias below 5890 key short-term resistance (former minor range consolidation from 21/22 Jan 2019 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current slide from 18 Jan 2019 high to 22 Jan 2019 U.S. session low of 5826) for a further potential slide to target the next support at 5760/50 (minor swing low areas of 10/14 Jan 2019). However, an hourly close above 5890 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up to retest the 18 Jan 2018 swing high of 5927.
  • Germany 30 – Trend bias: Down. No change, maintain bearish bias below  below 11160 key short-term resistance (former minor swing high areas of 21/22 Jan 2019 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current slide from 18 Jan 2019 high to 22 Jan 2019 U.S. session low of 11004) for a further potential push down to target the next near-term support at 10950 (the former minor range resistance from 09/14 Jan 2019 + minor bearish flag support from 26 Dec 2018 low). However, an hourly close above 11160 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up to retest the 18 Jan 2019 swing high area of 11260 and even the 11350 upper limit of the medium-term neutrality zone.

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform


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