Daily FX & Stock Indices Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Wed 23 Jan)

Mix bag in FX space while stock indices are looking for a further potential slide to test their medium-term supports.

FX – Mix bag

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push up within range configuration.  The recent decline from its 10 Jan 2019 high of 1.1569 has reached the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending range configuration in place since 12 Nov 2018 low now acting as support at 1.1335. Yesterday, 22 Jan price action has formed a daily “Doji” candlestick at the 1.1335 support at the end of the U.S. session coupled with a minor bullish “Descending Wedge” range configuration seen in the hourly chart in place since 18 Jan 2019 high. Bullish bias above 1.1335 key short-term support and a break above 1.1375 (close to the upper limit of the minor “Descending Wedge”) is likely to reinforce a potential push up to target the next intermediate resistances at 1.1420 and 1.1450 (38.2%/50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 10 Jan 2019 high to 22 Jan 2019 low + minor swing high areas of  15/16 Jan 2019). On the other hand, failure to hold at 1.1335 may see a bearish breakdown to resume its bearish impulsive down move to retest the 1.1220/1215 swing low area of 12 Nov 2018 in the first step.
  • GBP/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. Yesterday, 22 Jan push up has stage another test on the key 1.3000 resistance (the upper limit of a complex descending range configuration in place since 20 Sep 2018 high of 1.3300) in light of an expectation of  a second Brexit referendum. Mix elements at this juncture, prefer to have a neutral stance between 1.3000 and 1.2890 (the minor ascending trendline from 03 Jan 2019 low of 1.2437). A break below 1.2890 is likely to open up scope for a push down scenario within its complex range configuration to towards the next near-term supports at 1.2800 and 1.2700/2670 (minor swing low areas of 09/16 Jan 2019). On the flipside, a clearance with a daily close above 1.3000 triggers a bullish breakout towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.3300/3400 (20 Sep 2018 swing high + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous decline from 17 Apr 2018 high to 03 Jan 2019 low).
  • USD/JPY – Trend bias: Push up within range configuration. The recent flash crash that led to a low of 104.78 printed on 03 Jan 2019 has not altered the major sideways range configuration the pair has been evolving within it since May 2017. In the shorter-term, the pair has started to evolve into a minor ascending channel from 03 Jan 2019 since the bullish breakout above the 108.95 minor triangle range resistance on 18 Jan 2019. Bullish bias in any dips above 109.10 key short-term support (yesterday, 22 Jan U.S. session low +  minor ascending channel support from 03 Jan 2019 swing low) for a further potential push up towards the next intermediate resistance at 111.10/40 (swing high area of 26 Dec 2018 + Fibonacci expansion/retracement cluster + minor ascending channel resistance). On the other hand, failure to hold at 109.10 invalidates the bullish scenario for a slide to retest the 108.00/107.80 minor swing low areas of 10/14 Jan 2019.
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Down. Bearish bias below 0.7155 key short-term resistance (former minor swing low area of 17 Jan 2019 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 18 Jan 2019  high of 0.7221 to 22 Jan 2019 low of 0.7113) for a further potential slide to target the next near-term supports at  0.7060 and 0.7015/7000 (50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rebound from the 03 Jan 2019 swing low area to 11 Jan 2019 high and the former minor congestion zone of 27 Dec 2018/02 Jan 2019). On the other hand, a clearance above 0.7155 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards 0.7180/07200 (the minor swing high area of 18 Jan 2019 + minor descending channel resistance in place since 11 Jan 2019 high.
  • NZD/USD - Trend bias: Sideways. Mix elements, prefer to have a neutral stance between 0.6790/6800 and 0.6700. A break below 0.6700 opens up scope for a further slide to test 0.6635 major ascending trendline support in place since 05 Oct 2018 low. On the flipside, a break above 0.6800 sees a further push up towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.6840/6870 (minor swing high areas of 15 Jan 2019/18 Dec 2018 + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 04 Dec 2018 high to 03 Jan 2019 low.
Stock Indices (CFD) – Further potential downside side towards medium-term supports
  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Down. The Index has staged a bearish breakdown below the minor bearish “Ascending Wedge” lower boundary that has been acting as a support for the on-going post Xmas rally since 26 Dec 2018. Bearish bias below 2650 key short-term resistance (minor descending trendline from 18 Jan 2019 high + pull-back resistance of the former “Ascending Wedge” support) for a further potential decline towards the next near-term support at 2610 (Fibonacci expansion cluster) follow by the medium-term lower neutrality zone limit at 2600. Click here for details as per highlighted in our latest weekly technical outlook. On the other hand, a break above 2650 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up to retest 18 Jan 2019 swing high area of  2675.
  • Japan 225 – Trend bias: Down. Bearish bias below 20725 key short-term resistance (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 19 Jan 2019 high to 22 Jan 2019, U.S. session low of 20350 + former minor swing low area of 21 Jan 2019) for a further potential decline to retest 20350 before targeting the next support at 20100 (the lower limit of the medium-term neutrality zone). On the other hand, a break above 20725 invalidates the bearish scenario for a push up to retest 18 Jan 2019 high at 20950 and even the upper limit of the medium-term neutrality zone at 21020.
  • Hong Kong 50 - Trend bias: Down. The Index has staged a bearish breakdown from its minor bearish “Ascending Wedge” range configuration in place since 08 Jan 2019 low. Bearish bias below 27275 key short-term resistance (the pull-back resistance of the former minor “Ascending Wedge” support + minor swing high of 22 Jan 2019) for a further potential push down to target the next support at 26740/700 (former minor swing high area of 11 Jan 2019 + the lower limit of the medium-term neutrality zone). On the other hand, a clearance above 27275 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up to retest 18 Jan 2019 swing high of 27366 follow by the major key resistance at 28000.     
  • Australia 200  - Trend bias: Down. Bearish bias below 5890 key short-term resistance (former minor range consolidation from 21/22 Jan 2019 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current slide from 18 Jan 2019 high to 22 Jan 2019 U.S. session low of 5826) for a further potential slide to target the next support at 5760/50 (minor swing low areas of 10/14 Jan 2019). On the other hand, a break above 5890 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up to retest the 18 Jan 2018 swing high of 5927.
  • Germany 30 – Trend bias: Down. Bearish bias below 11160 key short-term resistance (former minor swing high areas of 21/22 Jan 2019 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current slide from 18 Jan 2019 high to 22 Jan 2019 U.S. session low of 11004) for a further potential push down to target the next near-term support at 10950 (the former minor range resistance from 09/14 Jan 2019 + minor bearish flag support from 26 Dec 2018 low). On the other hand, a break above 11160 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up to retest the 18 Jan 2019 swing high area of 11260.            

   *Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform


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