Daily Forex Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 04 Jul)

USD remains on support in EUR/USD, GBP/USD & AUD/USD despite Trump's jawboning tweet for a weaker USD.

EUR/USD – Still evolving within a short-term bearish configuration


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  • Traded sideways yesterday below the 1.1320 intermediate minor resistance which did not have an impact from U.S. President Trump jawboning for a weaker USD via his tweet. Maintain bearish bias below the 1.1350 key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential push down towards the next near-term supports at 1.1225 and 1.1180.
  • However, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.1350 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest 1.1420 (25 Jun 2019 swing high).

GBP/USD – Bears remain in control


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  • Inched down lower as expected to print a marginal low of 1.2555 in yesterday, 03 Jul European session before it traded sideways. Click here for a recap on our previous report.
  • Elements remain negative for a potential major bearish breakdown. Maintain bearish bias in any bounces below 1.2670 key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential push down to test 1.2500 and a daily close below it sees an extension of the impulsive downleg to target the next support at 1.2370 in the first step.
  • However, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.2670 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards the range resistance of 1.2785.

USD/JPY – Retreated from resistance


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  • Yesterday’s bounce from 107.50 Asian session low has managed to stall right at the intermediate minor resistance of 107.90. No change, maintain bearish bias below 108.15 key short-term pivotal resistance for another potential round of slide to retest the 25 Jun 2019 swing low area of 106.80.
  • However, a clearance with an hourly close above 108.15 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the 108.55/90 major resistance.

AUD/USD – Short-term momentum has turned negative


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  • Inched up higher to challenge the 0.7040 key pivotal resistance (printed a current intraday high of 0.7048 in today’s Asian session before it staged a retreat). Short-term momentum has turned negative where the hourly RSI oscillator has just exited from its overbought region after a prior bearish divergence signal.
  • Tolerate the excess to 0.7050 and maintain the bearish bias for a potential downside reversal to target the near-term support at 0.6955 in the first step and a break below it sees 0.6900 next.
  • However, a daily close above 0.7050 invalidates the bearish scenario for an extension of the corrective rebound towards the next resistance at 0.7125.

Charts are from eSignal






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