Daily Forex Technical Strategy (Tues 07 Jan)

Mix bag with EUR/USD and AUD/USD holding at supports while USD/JPY bears are still lingering around.

GBP/USD – Bounced towards key short-term resistance zone

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  • The pair has staged the expected bounce towards the intermediate resistance of 1.3235 (minor descending trendline from 13 Dec 2019 high & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior slide from 31 Dec 2019 high to 03 Jan 2020 low of 1.3053) with the hourly RSI oscillator that is coming close to an extreme overbought level. (click here for a recap).
  • Maintain bearish bias below 1.3300 short-term pivotal resistance for another round of potential slide to target the near-term supports of 1.3000 and 1.2920 in the first step. However, an hourly close above 1.3300 negates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up to retest the 13 Dec 2019 swing high of 1.3515.  

EUR/USD – Further potential upside remains in progress

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  • Last Fri, 03 Jan pull-backed in price action has managed to hold above the 1.1150 short-term pivotal support as per highlighted in our previous report (printed an intraday low of 1.1123) and staged a rebound thereafter from the pull-back support of the former major descending resistance from 24 Sep 2018 high.
  • Maintain bullish bias above an adjusted key short-term pivotal support now at 1.1120 for a further potential push up to retest 1.1240 before targeting the next intermediate resistance of 1.1285 (minor ascending channel resistance & Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster). However, an hourly close below 1.1115 negates the bearish scenario for a further slide towards the 1.1060/1040 medium-term support.

USD/JPY – Bounced up towards 108.60/95 key short-term resistance

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  • The pair has staged bounce of 77 pips from yesterday, 06 Jan low of 107.74 and almost hit the 108.60 intermediate resistance as per highlighted in our previous report. In addition, the hourly RSI oscillator has just retreated from a corresponding descending resistance near the overbought region.
  • Maintain bearish bias below 108.95 short-term pivotal resistance for a potential continuation of the downleg sequence to retest 107.90/75 before targeting 107.60 next in the first step. However, a clearance with an hourly close above 108.95 negates the bearish scenario for a push up to retest the recent 109.70 range resistance.

AUD/USD – Watch the 06930 key short-term support

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  • The pair has managed to test and hold at the 0.6930 short-term pivotal support with a hourly RSI oscillator that has managed to exit from its oversold region.
  • Maintain bullish bias and added 0.6965 as an upside trigger level; an hourly close above 0.6965 reinforces the start of a potential upleg to retest 0.7030 before targeting the next intermediate resistance of 0.7060/7080.
  • However, a break with an hourly close below 0.6930 invalidates the bullish scenario for a further slide towards the medium-term support at 0.6835.

Charts are from eSignal

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