Daily Forex Technical Strategy (Thurs 25 Jul)

USD remains above support with EUR/USD minor downtrend remains intact.

EUR/USD – 1.1200 key short-term resistance to watch ahead of ECB


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  • Printed a marginal new “lower low” at 1.1126 in yesterday, 24 Jul European session, the pair has stared to consolidated in a tight range of 28 pips within a minor “Symmetrical Triangle” configuration ahead of ECB’s monetary policy decision out today later at 1230 GMT.
  • Overall, the short-term impulsive down move sequence in place since 25 Jun 2019 high remains intact (click here to recap previous report), maintain bearish bias in any bounces below 1.1200 key short-term pivotal resistance for a push down to retest 1.1120 before targeting the next near-term support at 1.1060. On the other hand, an hourly close above 1.1200 negates the bearish tone for an extension of the corrective rebound towards the 1.1280 key medium-term resistance (also the descending resistance from 10 Jan 2019 high).

GBP/USD – Minor consolidation within bearish trend


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  • Key short-term elements remain unchanged as the pair continues to evolve within a minor “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration in place since 17 Jul 2019 minor swing low. Maintain bearish bias in any bounces below the 1.2560 key short-term pivotal resistance for a push down to retest 1.2370 before targeting the next near-term support at 1.2230.
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 1.2560 invalidates the bearish tone for an extension of the corrective rebound towards 1.2760 range resistance.

USD/JPY – Push up within range configuration


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  • Maintain bullish bias with an adjusted key short-term pivotal support at 107.95 for a potential push up to target the 108.60 intermediate resistance (also a Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster) within a minor range configuration in place since 25 Jun 2019 low.
  • On the other hand, an hourly close below 107.75 invalidates the push up scenario for a drop towards the range support at 107.30.

AUD/USD – Minor downtrend remains intact


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  • Key short-term elements remain unchanged. Maintain bearish bias in any bounces below 0.7035 key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential push down towards 10 Jul swing low area of 0.6910 in the first step.
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 0.7035 invalidates the bearish scenario to resume the up move to retest 0.7080 follow by 0.7130 next.

Charts are from eSignal


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