Daily Brexit update: Here we go again

If outcomes for tonight's vote can be predicted at all...

Daily Brexit update: Here we go again

If outcomes for tonight’s Brexit amendment votes can be predicted at all, it’s still most likely that MPs will veer in a ‘softer’ direction than a ‘hard’ one. This follows confirmation that the highest-profile delaying tactic by Brexit opponents has risen in the stakes. It’s been confirmed that the House of Commons speaker has agreed to add an amendment tabled by Labour’s Yvette Cooper. The change pushes for a vote that will force the government to seek an extension from the EU in the event that Parliament has still not agreed to a deal by the middle of February. In turn, the government has latterly thrown its weight behind an amendment that aims to keep May’s deal on track. Tabled by Conservative MP Graham Brady, that amendment has also been selected for debate. It seeks ‘alternative’ backstop arrangements without outlining what these are. The EU, including Ireland, continues to signal that it’s interested in an alternative to the backstop. Without details, the backstop agreement is not negotiable, according to just about any senior official asked. Voting is set for around 7pm.

How this affects our Brexit Top markets:

GBP/USD: Short-term implied volatility has spiked today but longer-term option trades continue to project a stable outlook for the pound. Cable trades down 16 pips at $1.3136.

GBP/JPY: The yen rises 18 pips, sending GBP/JPY down further from Friday’s six-week peak of 144.85.

EUR/USD: Still perky from surviving Draghi but Tuesday top at $1.1451 is just 6 pips above Monday’s.

EUR/GBP: Euro rallies as the pound rests though has barely scratched sterling’s 4.8% 14-session rise.

UK 100: Firmer reassurances on trade talks and soft FTSE lift the benchmark 1.3% but challenges loom ahead this year.

Germany 30: DAX, like other global markets reversed sharply into the close ahead of Wednesday’s Fed event risk.

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